SHAPESHIFTER

There are times when you feel like you can't read a comic book let alone horse form. I do a 'post mortem' on most race selections. I'll note why it went right or wrong or look at another runner in the race to figure out which aspect or course stood out that should be the 'indicator' on why it ran well or poorly. The past ten days, there has been a fair amount of post mortem analysis. But despite having been knocked on the chin several times, it's a matter of remaining focused and being careful that I don't 'over think' or get 'gun shy' with my selections. Monday, I missed the first three races due to ringing phones and a visiting Canadian business partner who dubbed me his 'P.A.' after leaving his phone in a taxi. It was disheartening to return to the screen and see nothing ...

On Tuesday, I flagged up Diamond Belle as a 'weak fave'. With just four runners, it is often easy to compare horses. If someone took note of the times that horses had done, little or no difference would have been found between the runners. But this is where knowing the tracks, standard times and, ultimately the speed ratings come in handy. Even looking at the surface, taking the times against the tracks raced, Diamond Belle had achieved times on what I consider 'easier' tracks where the standard times are higher. From there, when I looked at my ratings, it confirmed this. Others must have noted the same since the horse drifted out past the other three and eventually became one-paced two furlongs from home. Both my each way's ran well yesterday, Comrade Bond finishing a...

Yesterday, I flagged up Kalk Bay for the second time in as many weeks. The previous time had been at Redcar on the 1-Aug. That day, the horse drifted from 5.30 in the morning out to 9.80 BFSP running with the field then catching Daliance at the line. Yesterday, the horse drifted out to 6.80 during the afternoon while remaining the 3/1 fave on the high street. Prior to the off, the odds moved in one last time but drifted out to 3F. Kalk Bay ran a stronger race this time and won eased down at the line. The reason for the play wasn't to 'chase' the loss of the previous race. The boxes were ticked when looking at the performances of the horses that raced at Redcar. This was supported with a Easterby's 1 winner from the last 56 runners aged 4 and up at the track. But despite...

Seven selections didn't hit the line first on Monday pushing August closer to the 80% mark for the month. A quick method to gauge your [u]return against the amount of events you play[/u] is to take the profit on a period and divide it by the number of plays during that time. This figure has nothing to do with ROI or strike rate. It has more to do with 'time spent' either researching and/or trading. It simply says that I made a profit of X pounds over Y amount of events (regardless of the amount risked or the outcome). This could be extended to include trades. I tend to count 'events' so that if I back or lay a horse AND trade on the race as well, the figure of profit or loss is for the 'event' rather than breaking it down. Right now, for 'weak faves', my return per selection...