SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, the reads at Catterick proved a disappointment.  Mixed Message needed the whole race to win, taking a different line to the finish and suprising several in-running players (the results say it hit 100, the bulk more up to around 60).  George Rooke won the race but I felt was under pressure in the end but managed to finish a length ahead of the field.

The selections to back made up for the 0 for 4 performance on Monday.  I read over my selections and can see quickly where I compromised.  I took Mabaany EW but it hadn't raced over soft before.  I had focused too hard on times and ratings I had over firm and good, both over shorter distances.  So the step up in distance coupled with the soft going should have been enough to put a line through the horse rather than put a bet on.  That said, Ardmay came in second to the fave at 15/1 with no experience on soft but previous course and distance experience. 

With Gull Rock, it had raced well against some solid competitors while I took Blue Dune since, despite getting nicked at the line on 2-Oct over the "extended" two miles, the time was solid.  Yesterday, under 2 miles was the trip and Joe Fanning gave a different ride letting the horse settle a bit more then taking control at the half-way point, eventually landing the race cleanly by 3 lengths, returning last week's wager and a half point profit on the investment.

Yesterday, I tried putting together Wolverhampton but the with each pass, I couldn't find enough depth.  Today, when I looked at the results, 4 of 6 'early faves' (readings around 3PM) won their races.

Today, I'm still easing into the jumps so mainly watching the racing today to see how my notes pan out.  As well, not a lot of form in several of the race with times over questionable goings. 

I've also found a few 'border' faves and rather than dubbing them 'weak faves', I have looked at their ratings against the field and found some selections to back.  An example is the 4:50 with Royale Knight who is running over a longer distance than just four days ago when the going is heavy while I've got some decent ratings for Fresher Fisher who has been off the track since May.

I will do my best to look at Kempton.


WEAK FAVES FOR 10-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ludlow: no meetings to date
Kempton: 8 meetings: 14 for 20 (70%)
Nottingham: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%)
Towcester: no meetings to date

KEMPTON
5:30 Hardy (1st BFSP 3.60)

Early Price: Hardy Boy 3.15

NOTTINGHAM
2:30 Quality Mark (result: 3rd of 6)

Early Price: Quality Mark 2.86

SUMMARY With little jump form to go on and/or horses that have not seen a track since the spring, only two calls and a 50% strike rate when Hardy Boy wins in a photo.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

KEMPTON
7:00 Steelriver EW (1st BFSP 11.6 / 3.17) +6.30

LUDLOW
2:10 Haymarket (1st BFSP 2.26) +1.25

NOTTINGHAM
3:00 Angus Og EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:00 Balady EW (3rd BFSP: 18.00 / 4.09 ) +.50

TOWCESTER
4:50 Fresher Fishing EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Two winners, both by 3 lengths +, making 3 for 5 paying dividends on the day.  LSP of 5 pts wagered would have returned a net of +6.05 (120%)


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