SHAPESHIFTER

With the early start, I will post the first few for Nottingham then will update the blog. **** [b]WEAK FAVES FOR 7-November[/b] Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races Strike rates: Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%) Nottingham: 3 meetings: 4 for 4 (100%) Kempton 4:55 Inthar [i](result: 2nd)[/i] [i]Early prices: Inthar 3.10 [/i] Nottingham 1:10 Blue Lotus [i](6th of 8)[/i] [i]Early prices: Blue Lotus 3.35 [/i] [b]SUMMARY[/b] [i]2 for 2 with selections today. Both horses were favourites at the off.[/i] [b]STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK[/b] Kempton 4:25 Blank Czech [i](2nd by 6 lengths)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 4:55 Tuscania [b]EW[/b] [i](4th)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 5:55 Swift Bounty [i](2nd by 3/4 Lengths)[/i] [b]-1.00[/b] 7:55...

I've always taken the view that 90% of the time, a horse must run a 'perfect race' to win. I've watched UK racing for a decade now and it has evolved that there is little leeway, the jockey's and trainers have upped their game with strategy, the horses more responsive to the instructions from the pilot. Yesterday, watching the 2:50, it became apparent that Another Trump was running a 'perfect race' and that the jockey, AP McCoy, was focused with the task at hand. Each bend they passed around, he cut perfectly without putting Another Trump under pressure to hold the line. Each undulation, he timed perfectly, the horse moving effortlessly. And while the market saw the horse dropping back as a sign of defeat, the in-running drifting out to 14+, I saw it as a breather and a ...

Yesterday, the reads at Catterick proved a disappointment. Mixed Message needed the whole race to win, taking a different line to the finish and suprising several in-running players (the results say it hit 100, the bulk more up to around 60). George Rooke won the race but I felt was under pressure in the end but managed to finish a length ahead of the field. The selections to back made up for the 0 for 4 performance on Monday. I read over my selections and can see quickly where I compromised. I took Mabaany EW but it hadn't raced over soft before. I had focused too hard on times and ratings I had over firm and good, both over shorter distances. So the step up in distance coupled with the soft going should have been enough to put a line through the horse rather than put a bet on....