SHAPESHIFTER

I've always taken the view that 90% of the time, a horse must run a 'perfect race' to win.

I've watched UK racing for a decade now and it has evolved that there is little leeway, the jockey's and trainers have upped their game with strategy, the horses more responsive to the instructions from the pilot.

Yesterday, watching the 2:50, it became apparent that Another Trump was running a 'perfect race' and that the jockey, AP McCoy, was focused with the task at hand. 

Each bend they passed around, he cut perfectly without putting Another Trump under pressure to hold the line.  Each undulation, he timed perfectly, the horse moving effortlessly.

And while the market saw the horse dropping back as a sign of defeat, the in-running drifting out to 14+, I saw it as a breather and a chance to give Another Trump space to run its own race.

Then, sure enough, the timing to the end and the horse hit the line first.

A handful of jockey's get 'more' out of horses I deem 'weak faves'.  AP McCoy is one of them.

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I looked like I was jumping on 'Richard Hughes fever' yesterday but did go with two I thought would run well, landing 1 for 2.  My Queenie was a disappointment but something that is often true with strong horses is they run at their best in the big races, often challenged by the pace and lines held in lesser races.

I was really happy with the selection of Genstone Trail that won at BFSP 11/1 at Huntingdon.  With doubts on Victor Echo, I saw the potential to find a value EW play in the market rather than lay the fave that eventually went off at 3.00. 

To find EW value, I reach farther back through a horses performances and find two or three that I think were solid examples of how the horse could run.  If you look at results that are recent, you'll sometimes find the 'reason' the horse is at longer odds but it doesn't necessarily represent the 'potential performance'.

With only three previous runs this year, I focused on the rating at February at Taunton. I had Genstone Trail almost half a second faster per furlong than the bulk of the field. 

Genstone Trail ran within 15% of that pace and won by 3 lengths.

Someone once told me that when using your ratings, you need to take ALL races into account.  I disagree.  REGARDLESS of where they finish, you need to find the ratings that show the horses potential with the conditions on the day.

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Rule number 1 for me is that you need to be 100% focused and without distractions when reading through form and ratings.

I'm trying to take on the evening cards, but all it takes is the combination of a late train bringing Mrs Shapeshifter home and energetic children high off their day to create 'background noise' that makes it impossible to make a final decision with confidence.

Despite notes from the day before and morning, there was too much going on below my loft space.  This is the case of most evenings so if the posts don't appear for evening races, know it's because the 'final checklist' has been side-tracked by family life.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Lingfield: 9 meetings: 17 for 21 (88%)
Nottingham: 2 meetings: 3 for 3 (100%)
Wetherby: No meetings to date

Kempton
I will be back to look at latter races.

Lingfield
2:00 Tarbawi (result: 2nd by a head)
4:40 Marmas (1st BFSP 3.25)

Early prices: Tarbawi 4.00

Nottingham
3:45 Attenshun (5th of 6)

Early prices: Attenshun 4.10

SUMMARY 2 for 3 on the day with Marmas winning under pressure from the EW selections on the race, Squad.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
6:10 Illustrious Lad EW (2nd BFSP 5.40 / 2.00) +0.00
(posted 6:01)

Lingfield
3:00 Anciano EW (withdrawn at the start - went fave by the off) No bet
4:40 Squad EW (2nd BFSP: 8.62 /  2.75) +0.35

Nottingham
5:20 Danzoe EW (1st BFSP 13.03 / 3.47) +7.20

Wetherby
2:20 Don't Take Me Alive (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Another day with dividends. All three EW's gave returns including Danzoe winning after drifting to 13.00 BFSP.  LSP with 4 points wagered would return +6.50 (160% ROI)



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