SHAPESHIFTER

I sat on Wednesday watching Lingfield unfold and like the previous day, the selections felt like they were 'lifeless'.  As each race finished, I did a post-mortem, looking at the winners and the times, and kept looking at the results and my selections and everything just clouded over. 

Yes, Safwaan was at the bottom of the ratings for the field but I felt the value was there.  But it ran outclassed and as though horse and jockey were going through the motions.

Musselburgh comes down to what I thought were value selections, something that has kept my account under control despite the strike-rate being down.

Instead of watching the last two at Lingfield, I put on the hard disc and chilled.  The streak of poor results came down to me and nothing else.  So time to reboot and 'reconnect' with my approach to making selections.

One ability I have is to look at the field, the results, the time, the tracks and my ratings on a grid I have developed and a couple of horses will visually rise off the page and 'float' above the rest.  If nothing 'floats' within a minute or so, a line has to go through the race until I'm left with maybe four races to go through.

From there, time to dive deeper and find the value plays.

That was the case with Kempton last night.  But to try to get back on a positive track, I did it in 'shifts'.  I hit the timer to go off after 15 minutes.  I then walked away for ten each time and cleared my mind to continue through the past to predict the future.

The result; Three selections - Two winners and an each way paying dividends.

As well, this ended a streak of fourteen races without a winner. 

The expresssion "Clearer heads prevail' comes to mind.

How the streak ended did make me laugh: 

Spirit Of Gondree had the door slammed on it when trying to go up the rail and despite some drastic maneuvers, finished in a dead heat for 3rd returning a touch more than the wager.

Then Indian Affair was backed from 11/1 into 6/1 and shared the win in a dead heat.

I then watched as Luke Morris searched for the necessary gears to get Light From Mars past Polar Kite to win by a head.

If betting was a lady, last night she was a full-on tease. 



UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening.

WEAK FAVES FOR 14-February

none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kelso
2:40 Duke Of Navan (result: 1st BFSP 4.00) +2.85
3:10 Totalize (1st BFSP 3.70) +2.60
3:40 Funky Munky EW (4th) -1.00

Kempton
5:30 Golden Desert EW (unplaced) -1.00
7:30 Thecornishcockney EW (1st BFSP 5.32/1.91) +2.50
8:00 Renoirs Lady EW (3rd BFSP 7.76/2.72) +0.35 


SUMMARY Both meetings were in profit today.  3 winners from 6 selections (50% strike-rate) and one each way returning dividends.  A risk of 6 points would have returned a profit of +6.30 (105% ROI)




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