SHAPESHIFTER

I played Goodwood again after a day away.  With any meeting, if selections aren't becoming obvious, it's best not to 'force' selections and move on.  Landing 4 for 4 at the other meetings on Wednesday proved that my time was properly used.

I also find the better the fields, the deeper you have to go in the form.  And, as I mentioned a few days ago, I find need to focus even harder on the horses performances rather than the names of the trainers and jockey's until later in the process.

Even though my approach is to find faves that have not run against what I consider 'weak fields', I am well aware that top trainers will work hard on preparing and placing a horse in the right race while certain jockeys will get more out of a horse than those that rode previously.

So once I've found two or three to take on, I'll look a little closer at the trainers and jockeys.

Often you'll see a strike-rate of a trainer that is strong at a particular track.  But once you take the time to look a bit deeper at the stats, you'll often find their "20% strike rate" is based on longer distances when today's horse is entered into a sprint.  Or you'll find they use it as a springboard for their three year olds but their older horses rarely have success.  You'll also find that a trainer's success at a track comes down to a handful of jockey's but today they are working with someone that underperforms at the track.

If you take the time, you'll find which tracks and conditions that  trainers and jockeys excel or struggle at.  You then have to decide how much weight or bearing it will have on the race.

- - - 

Unlike the day before with Kalk Hand, all the faves selected on Thursday stayed solid in the betting.  Two remained favorites while Estimate drifted 3 ticks on betfair but remained co-fave at bookmakers for the race.

24 picks so far this week.  Today will bring it to a minimum of 30, slightly above the average of 27 a week.  Perhaps coming down to taking on more meetings per day.

Today, selections from Goodwood and Thirsk.  But I've also spent the past week reading form on the summer jumps and there are some selections for Bangor.



WEAK FAVES FOR 3-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

BANGOR
3:55 Bay Centra
5:00 Marie Des Anges

GOODWOOD
2:00 Gatewood

THIRSK
2:20 Blades Rose
4:05 Guiletta
4:40 Baheeja

BATH (added at 5:55PM)
6:35 Authoritarian
7:40 Callisto Moon

MUSSELBURGH (added at 5:55PM)
6:10 Houston Dynimo

RESULT: 5 for 6 in the afternoon, the mis-read being Baheeja (3.00 BFSP) ending the latest streak at nine in a row. Both reads over jumps at Bangor were successful.  For the Goodwood meeting, I was 5 for 5 on the week.

The evening session was 2 for 3.  Houston Dynimo drifted from 4/1 to 17/2 at the off and finished outside the frame.  5 of the 7 winners at Bath were faves. I was 1 for 2, successful with Callisto Moon who was going for win number 4 while Authoritarian won by a neck.


***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT BY 'FOLLOWING' THE BLOG***