SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Tuesday, 11 September

Newton Abbot was frustrating to watch.  Even when Adelar finished 3rd, I had no confidence in the call leading up to the finish when the jockey's shifted and swung their positions for the final hurdle, an action that perhaps was the reason Adelar didn't win. 

After that, Jewellery made all, a tactic I didn't expect.  And Changing Of The Guard once again won in the final strides.

Bath was collectively within less than a length of being much worse while my reserved approach to Newcastle proved the most successful call of the day.

I can see that come the fall when the jumps and chases come more into play more, I'll have to look closely at my approach.  The idea is to find horses that are favorites that have faced weak competition and/or facing stiffer competition on the day. 

It will be a matter of looking closely at my performance and reads and re-prioritize the criteria for the individual tracks to maximize returns.

- - - -

The backs for Monday were very disappointing.  My only decent call was with Maltease Ah each-way (12/1) who fought off the challenge by Red Shadow only to be caught in the final strides by Xpres Maite.  There was some value to be had but value means nothing if the calls feel like I could have done better at the roulette table.  LSP would mean a loss of around 4.5 points on the day.

I'm going to tighten the criteria further.  But it remains a 'work in progress' and I'll take the time to post the returns at LSP (level stake profit) to keep everything in perspective.

Your comments and views are always welcome.




WEAK FAVES FOR 11-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Leicester: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)
Redcar: 1 meeting: 2 for 3 (66%)
Worcester: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)


LEICESTER
2:50 Sojoum (Result: 5th of 15)
3:20 Amour Propre (4th of 8)

REDCAR
2:30 Danehill Flyer (6th of 16)
4:00 Karaka Jack (13th of 13)

WORCESTER
2:40 Chandlers Cross (3rd)
5:10 Prophete De Guye (7th of 10)

SUMMARY: A 100% strike-rate on the day with 5 of 6 unplaced. There were more pre-off drifters than usual on the day.


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

LEICESTER
2:50 Strawberry Duck EW (RESULT: 15th of 15) -1
3:20 Swiss Cross EW (3rd BFSP 11.30/2.44) +.20
4:50 Common Touch (Back but EW if 5/1 or better) (4th) -1

REDCAR
4:30 Gold Edition (3rd) -1
5:30 Broctune Papa Gio EW (1st BFSP: 8.20/2.25) +4.20

WORCESTER
3:10 On The Bridge (1st) +2.60
5:40 Jawhary EW (10th of 14) -1

SUMMARY: 3 for 7 paying dividends for an LSP of +3.00 (42% ROI)




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Your comments and views are always welcomed