A day like today only comes around every 4 years. Post Summer Olympic 'Blues".
Mid-week, I thought that I had 'hit the wall' with Olympic coverage. One of the seventeen channels covering the event was always on in the background. But I got my second wind and enjoyed the rush of sports offered up in the final days.
I also enjoyed the mostly 'football-free' sports sections of the papers. Usually for three weeks leading up to the season, we are bombarded with fictional controversy , previews and players stating how unhappy they are. Instead, the well-paid kickers-of-ball were relegated behind the accomplishments of athletes from so many different backgrounds. No event compares to the Olympics where accountants and school teachers find themselves applauded by the world or a Saturday where from coffee through to dinner, you witness personal bests and winning achievements.
It will be hard to adjust to being bombarded by the many ego-fueled footballers and managers with their linear views and attitude of self-importance.
- - -
Last Wednesday, I said that my view on long term gains is to remain focused through 'break even' periods till you get a streak.
That day, a streak started and continued into Thursday with 11 selections. The success carried over into Friday landing 4 for 5.
Approaching the mid-way of August, the strike rate is 77% (41 for 53) with 51% horses finishing outside the frame. Last week, the average price of any of the winning horses was 3.10 (BFSP), an improvement on the week before.
WEAK FAVES FOR 13-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Ffos Las: 1 meetings: 2 for 2 (100%)
Kempton: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
FFOS LAS
3:20 Croeso Mawr
5:20 Filatore
KEMPTON
3:00 Altaria
4:30 Hannibal Hayes
5:00 Jamarjo
5:30 Brigadoon
RESULT: Ffos Las went 2 for 2 to maintain the 100% strike-rate at the track though both came in 2nd. Kempton, Jamarjo and Brigadoon won their races, the latter drifting out to 9/2.
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT AND 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
Share your views and post your comments
15 Mar 13
14 Mar 13
13 Mar 13
12 Mar 13
89 people are following this blog
SHAPESHIFTER'S WORLD
Comments: 3
You seem very successful and have a great strike rate!
I sometimes see the reasoning behind some of your selections when I study races myself.
What do you think the maximum odds I should lay before considering the horse value instead of a weak favourite?
I was thinking maybe 5 or 6 BFSP.
Thanks for your blog its great, any support would be much appreciated!
Over the past few months, I have been asking myself what it takes to become a steady, profitable sports investor/gambler/trader.
The checklist to achieve this is becoming more and more defined.
But one that I keep coming back to is the factor that touches the 'psychology' involved with remaining focused and disciplined.
When it comes down to staking, my view is whether you are backing or laying, the mindset must be on your liability rather than your potential gain.
What is the amount you can lose and it won't affect your mindset on the next selections?
Even if a selection is a value lay (i.e. 5/1 when you feel it is 8/1), how will that impact you if you lose?
It then has to be put into how your day is structured. If it is part of several selections and you've had a great day, why risk all the gains? Or, if it is early on and you only have two more plays, if you take a hit, are you going to start rifling through the meetings to chase the loss?
So if you are going to taking on a longer odds lay, look at the impact the play will have. You can take it on as a 'flutter' rather than part of a more defined staking plan.
ALSO: if you think a 5/1 horse is a lay, why not put a line through it? If the fave is shorter, can you find the danger at higher odds as an EW back on the race? If not, perhaps the fave is the play.
Finding a 'lay' can give you the edge to find the value back in the race.