SHAPESHIFTER

Wednesday was the first "sub-70%" days since the 24th of August with 'weak faves'. I've learned to accept it since it happens about once a week, if not more. The indicator to me is that if over two or three days horses are finishing within about 4 lengths over a mile, it means the reads are 'just successful'. This is represented on my data-base by yellow blocks and eventually these turn to a few 'oranges' when the horses beat my read (I stopped using 'red'. Psychologically hate seeing it on the screen). And when I watch the races, I can usually tell about half way through the distance if the read has been successful. I tend to focus on the horse I am playing, back or lay, and watch its movements. I can tell when the jockey is comfortable or about to search for a way to get...

Yesterday, I flagged up Kalk Bay for the second time in as many weeks. The previous time had been at Redcar on the 1-Aug. That day, the horse drifted from 5.30 in the morning out to 9.80 BFSP running with the field then catching Daliance at the line. Yesterday, the horse drifted out to 6.80 during the afternoon while remaining the 3/1 fave on the high street. Prior to the off, the odds moved in one last time but drifted out to 3F. Kalk Bay ran a stronger race this time and won eased down at the line. The reason for the play wasn't to 'chase' the loss of the previous race. The boxes were ticked when looking at the performances of the horses that raced at Redcar. This was supported with a Easterby's 1 winner from the last 56 runners aged 4 and up at the track. But despite...