SHAPESHIFTER

Wednesday was the first "sub-70%" days since the 24th of August with 'weak faves'.  I've learned to accept it since it happens about once a week, if not more. 

The indicator to me is that if over two or three days horses are finishing within about 4 lengths over a mile, it means the reads are 'just successful'. This is represented on my data-base by yellow blocks and eventually these turn to a few 'oranges' when the horses beat my read (I stopped using 'red'. Psychologically hate seeing it on the screen).   

And when I watch the races, I can usually tell about half way through the distance if the read has been successful.  I tend to focus on the horse I am playing, back or lay, and watch its movements.  I can tell when the jockey is comfortable or about to search for a way to get extra out of the horse.  I've also learned to spot when a jockey is giving a horse a 'breather', the odds drifting way out during the in-running only to shoot back in when the horse is nudged back into gear and a strategic dash for the line is launched.

That was the case with Finch Flyer yesterday.  As I watched the race evolve in the early stages, I could tell right away that McCoy and horse were comfortable with the track and competition. 

Others on the day, I felt had to work harder for their win but the 'fade' that I am used to seeing when I make a decent call wasn't present with most of the runners.

But not a heavy loss no matter the approach.  I sometimes think of it as poker where you're stuck playing your ante until the right hand comes along.  In my case, a combination of tracks, distances, goings and data that builds a decent streak of gains.

Besides, the occasional evening of beans and toast reminds me of my uni days.

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The flip-side; the backs returned around 3 1/2 points at LSP. Debating Society ran solidly in a competitive race while the read on Thundering Home was the high point of the afternoon running as I expected after drifting 5 pts just before the off going off at 12/1 losing the race in the closing yards.

The backs are still a 'work in progress' but still a positive result on the day.



WEAK FAVES FOR 6-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Haydock: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)
Kempton: 4 meetings: 6 for 9 (67%)
Salisbury: 2 meetings 1 for 3 (33%)
Sedgefield: 1 meeting: 1 for 2 (50%)


Haydock
4:10 Calaf (result: 1st BFSP 1.66)
4:40 Galleon (4th of 8)
5:10 Tenhoo (6th of 7)

Kempton (added 5:10)
5:40 Wordsaplenty (2nd / 1 L)
8:10 Inthar (5th of 6)
8:40 Lytham (5th of 13)
9:10 If So (3rd)

Salisbury
4:50 Harlestone Wood (2nd / hd)

Sedgefield
2:20 Indepub (1st BFSP 1.99)
3:55 Misstree Pitcher (2nd 4.5 L)
5:30 Louis Ludwig (4th of 13)


SUMMARY: 9 for 11 today (82%).

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Haydock
3:05 David Jack - Excellent time recorded over 5 Furlongs against a strong field. Quicker ground more likely to suit than for Erodium.  RESULT: finished 9th, never really factoring into the race

Salisbury
3:15 Elmanti - Both runs were strong in competitive fields but first time visit to the track for trainer.  Martin Dwyers only ride for the day. RESULT: set the pace for the race with the pack chasing till the final 1/2 furlong then lost all momentum finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind the eventual winner.

Salisbury
3:45 Elusive Flame EW - One of the more competitive races of the day and Elusive Flame is in the mix of almost every race it runs in.  William Buick on board.  RESULT: was with the pace for the race and had a narrow lead till 1/2 a furlong out then faded

Sedgefield
3:55 Hunters Belt EW - A bit of a flutter but has run better than others running today over similar ground. RESULT: chased the leaders but never in contention

Kempton (added 5:10)
8:40 Minstrel Lad EW - forgive the last run at the track.  New surface is still being worked in and favouring horses that have traveled on ground with give. RESULT: chased the leading pack but nothing extra and couldn't keep up for the run to the line




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