SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

Tuesday, 18-September


Over the past few weeks, I noticed that despite having the opinion that certain horses were 'weak faves', most remained favourites in the market.  Monday was the opposite.

UK racing looked like it was suffering a post-Doncaster hang-over.  All day, the markets were changing as punters tried to form opinions on horses whose ratings were closer to my age than usual.  And come race time, again, the movements were very apparent and sometimes surprising.

I watched the markets throughout the day and only on a handful of occasions was the money right.  And, in my case, despite both having solid drifts, two of the 'weak faves' won their race.

It was also more apparent than on other days that 'the support' for the calls wasn't there.  As the horses rounded the final bend at Wolverhampton, several were in contention for the 2 furlong dash to the line.  But suddenly, the front of the pack looked like it ran into mud and only one emerged with 'weak fave' selection, Progenitor, upping the pace for the line. In the end, Progenitor came second to Aeronwyn Bryn (BFSP 18.00) but it summed up the quality of the racing on the day.

Brighton maintained consistency with both calls being successful while Invigilator fired past the well supported Majestic Breeze at Wolverhampton to dent the returns at the track.  Musselburgh was a disappointing one for three on the day.

With the five backs, Just Lille proved to be the only success of the day.  I flagged it up as an each way call when it floated at 5/1.  But by race time, it had moved into 3/1 and beating 11/10 favourite, Kay Gee Be.  A 20% strike-rate means that 5 points wagered produced a loss of about -2.10


WEAK FAVES FOR 18-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Folkestone: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)
Thirsk: 3 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Yarmouth: 6 meetings: 15 for 17 (88%)

Folkestone
3:50 Diamond Belle (Result: 4th of 4)
4:50 Enery (1st: BFSP 4.80)
5:20 Thecornishcowboy (2nd)

Thirsk
3:10 Lokis Strike (9th of 13)

Yarmouth
4:00 Sirius Prospect (3rd of 5)
4:30 Bubbly Ballerina (2nd by 1 1/2 L)
5:30 Malekov (1st: BFSP 7.30)

SUMMARY 6 for 8 on the day (75%).


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Thirsk
3:40 Comrade Bond EW (Result: 3rd: BFSP 12.94 / 3.02) +0.50

Yarmouth
5:00 Willie Wag Tail (3rd) -1.00
5:30 Suzi's a Class EW (2nd)  +0.13

SUMMARY Strike rate of 2 for 3 paying dividends but not enough to turn a profit.  3 points risked produced a loss of -0.37

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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

Monday, 17-September

I enjoyed Doncaster. The racing remained top-notch right through to the final furlongs and all the speculation and results gave racers and pundits plenty to chat about. 

Watching J P O'Brien reminded me of how exciting sports was as both a spectator and a participant when I was the same age.  I had my share of moments from sailing, ice hockey, soccer and golf.  I walked away with trophies in everything I did and was privileged to tour as an amateur golfer for three summers from eighteen to twenty. 

But to see that young man with such a responsibility hold his composure both during the heat of the race and afterwards was pretty special.

With most major meets, I find betting over the first couple of days is easier to find decent value.  After two days, the markets are more defined and both bookmakers and the public are more savvy.  I also found that, as with all major events, using the expression 'weak faves' is, at time, not appropriate since all the horses, favourites or otherwise, are pretty incredible beasts.

And with the flat season winding down and the jumps and hurdles being set up on a more daily basis, I'll be carefully treading into the fall with selections.  Granted, I'm confident about my reads and speed ratings for all weather, but I have never relied solely on Lingfield, Kempton and Wolverhampton to fill my days.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 7 meetings: 17 for 20 (85%)
Musselburgh: 5 meetings: 6 for 9 (67%)
Wolverhampton: 7 meetings: 19 for 20 (95%)

Brighton
3:20 Lunar Deity (result: 2nd)
3:50 Lisselan Pleasure (7th of 9)

Musselburgh
2:10 Goninodaethat (6th of 9)
3:10 Lea Valley Black (1st: BFSP 2.98)
5:40 Hawdyerwheesht (1st: BFSP 5.20)

Wolverhampton
3:00 Progenitor (2nd)
4:30 Invigilator (1st: BFSP 5.90)
5:30 Volcanic Jack (4th of 11)

SUMMARY 5 for 8 for the day (63%).  Lea Valley Black remained favourite and won by two lengths while Invigilator and Hawdyerwheesht both went off 2F

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Musselburgh
3:40 La Bacouetteuse EW (Result: 9th of 10) -1.00
4:40 Just Lille EW (1st: 4.30) +1.90 (had been available at 5/1 around 1PM)
5:40 Operateur EW (5th of 13) -1.00

Wolverhampton
3:00 Autumn Snow EW (9th of 11) -1.00
5:00 Maltease Ah (4th of13) -1.00

SUMMARY: One winner on the day, Just Lille, who was supported into 3/1 and beating 11/10 favourite, Kay Gee Be by 3/4 of a length. 5 points wagered with a return of -2.10



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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM

STAT: Last week: 26/36 (72%). September to date: 55 for 74 (74%)


Friday, 14-September

Thursday's racing was more 'stable' than Wednesday.  I found the mid-week racing challenging with the going and weather changing constantly through the day.  When the weather goes the way it did, you have to work hard to stay ahead of the markets.

Instead, Thursday, I got to focus on the races.  The pace at Doncaster was fantastic and some superb racing.  It's amazing to watch racing where the depth in quality is fantastic and the pilots are all top notch.

You appreciate the strategy and movement as the race evolves.  Unlike football where you have ninety minutes and time to change strategies and adjust to your opponents when things aren't going your way, jockey's have to make key decisions every few meters preparing for the dash to the line. 

Even those who despise Jamie Spencer's 'come from behind' approach have to have appreciated his efforts yesterday.  For me, I profited on what I thought was his best chance of the day with Amadeus Wolfe Tone which was his second winner of the day.  Then, a race later, I had to watch him ride my second 'weak fave' of the day at Doncaster, Trade Storm, and hope that his ability to ride the track that day would not be enough to get extra out of the David Simcock horse.

It didn't and Doncaster ended up a positive day with both 'weak faves' outside the frame and 2 of 3 races paying dividends with selections to back.

Last night, a streak of 18 at Wolverhampton came to an end when Alnoomaas won (BFSP 2.17).  I looked at the previous runs and went with the play knowing that Richard Hughes was on board.   There are a handful of jockey's that get 'extra' out of a horse and Richard Hughes is one of them.  What won that race was the brilliant start that allowed Alnoomaas to settle out front, eventually winning by a challenged length.  Any other jockey, I think the outcome would have been different.

Like Jamie Spencer in the afternoon, I had a back and a 'weak fave' and Richard Hughes gave me a run for my money on Imjam River who finished second by 3/4 of a length behind Yungaburra.


WEAK FAVES FOR 14-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Chester: 1 meeting: 0 for 1 (0%)
Doncaster: 7 meetings: 8 for 10 (80%)
Sandown: 2 meetings: 2 for 3 (66%)
Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 19 for 20 (95%)


Chester
2:45 Everlong (result: 1st BFSP 2.70)
4:25 Commend (5th of 8)
5:00 See Clearly  (3rd)

Doncaster
1:50 Sir Graham Wade (1st BFSP 3.50)
4:05 Duke Of Firenze (6th of 16)

Sandown
3:05 Basseterre (7th of 10)
3:40 Presburg (2nd)

Wolverhampton
No selections

SUMMARY: After two selections back to back winning their race, the next five were successful. Everlong (2:45 at Chester) is perhaps the worse read of the close to 300 I have made to date finishing 14 lengths ahead of the 2nd place runner, Merry Jaunt, in a 10 furlong race.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Chester
3:20 Countrywide Flame RESULT: 1st BFSP 3.35 +2.35

Doncaster
4:05 "two against the field" Macs Power EW and Rassam EW -2.00

SUMMARY:A pleasing call with Countrywide Flame though the horse needed the line.  4 points risked gives a return of +.35 (8% ROI)



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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Thursday, 13 September

I walked away from Wednesday's racing with neither call at Uttoxeter coming in.  I watched Christopher Ward position Stage Acclaim perfectly before the final hurdle and knew that there was a clear lane for the horse that looked as fresh as it did at the start.  I went in knowing that the jockey gave 8 lbs but thought even then the margin was there for others to prevail.

And despite tight betting in the top three in the market, Lark's Lad won the next race as well.

I was pleased with the Doncaster call in the 4:45.  Even when the openings came, Strictly Silver didn't have the engine to tackle the others and remained part of the mid-field. 

The average price of horses that have won increased from 2.90 to 3.19 (notably, Lark's Lad at 5.40 BFSP) and the strike-rate this week is 70% bringing September to 74%. 

----

Two each-ways made the frame but, overall, four 1 pt bets would have returned a loss of 2 pts at BFSP. 


WEAK FAVES FOR 13-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Chepstow: 2 meetings: 5 for 6 (83%)
Doncaster: 6 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Epsom: 3 meetings: 5 for 7 (71%)
Wolverhampton: 7 meetings: 18 for 18 (100%)


Chepstow
4:25 Siberian Belle (6th of 12)
5:00 Percythepinto (3rd)
5:30 Presto Volante (1st BFSP 5.50)

Doncaster
1:50 Sentaril (5th of 18)
4:35 Trade Storm (3rd)

Epsom
3:05 Classic Falcon (7th of 7) *possibly shook up from stall incident
5:15 Aubrietia (6th of 9)

Wolverhampton (added 6:27)
7:50 Alnoomaas (1st BFSP 2.17)
8:50 Invigilator (4th of 12)

SUMMARY: 7 for 9 including 2 for 2 at Doncaster.  Alnoomaas ended a streak of 18 at Wolverhampton that goes back to 2-July.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Chepstow
4:25 Belle Park EW (2nd) -.50

Doncaster
2:20 "two against the field" Hototo EW and King Dragon EW (2pts wagered) -2.00
2:55 Wild Coco (1st BFSP 3.1) + 2.10
4:05 Amadeus Wolfe Tone EW (1st BFSP 5.87) +2.90

Wolverhampton (added 6:27)
8:20 Imjam River (win bet but EW if 6's or better) (2nd BFSP 5.87/2.02) *hit 6.0+ several times before off and matchedEW +0.00

SUMMARY: A 60% ROI at Doncaster today while each-ways landed at Chepstow and Wolverhampton. 6 pts wagered give a return of +2.50 pts (41% ROI)


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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Wednesday, 12 September


Tuesday finished with a clean sheet, five of the six horses unplaced.  What stood out for me was that the drifts through the afternoon were more extensive than expected considering all had been favourites in their races around 11AM when I take the readings.

Only two remained favourite while two went off 2F, the other two 3F.

Danehill Flyer moved extremely from 5.5 out to 8, in again then out at the off.  Prophete De Guye, co-fave in the morning, went from moving steadily into 4.4 in the A.M. to 6.60 at the off.

But part of my premise is that horses that are favourites on the board aren't the most likely to win the race and I can't be the only one that thinks that. 

My other theory on all the spikes; Andy Murray kept the traders going till 2:30 A.M. in the morning making for a different pace to the market after 65 million pounds was matched on the tennis final.

And, I stress again, that a 'weak fave' might not necessarily be the best play in a race, especially when it drifts out in the market, but could be used as an indicator to find a value bet, back or each way, elsewhere in the field.

And set your limit and don't chase the betting up.  Danehill Flyer is a perfect example with the spikes all afternoon. And Prophete De Guye might have gone off at 6.60 but it moved into 3.10 in-running.  So a lay placed and kept at better odds would have been matched before it faded into 7th place.

- -

The backs faired better with 40% being returned on a 7 bets but will add up the plus/minus after three weeks to decide if I will continue posting them



WEAK FAVES FOR 12-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Carlisle: 2 meetings: 4 for 8 (50f%)
Doncaster: 5 meetings: 5 for 7 (71%)
Kempton: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)
Uttoxeter: no meetings to date


Carlisle
1:50 Poppy Bond (RESULT: 7th of 12)
5:05 Boots And Spurs (1st BFSP 3.80)
5:35 Silver Samba (3rd of 5)

Doncaster
4:45 Strictly Silver (6th of 14)

Kempton
9:15 Admiralty (7th of 12)

Uttoxeter
2:40 Stage Acclaim (1st BFSP 2.42)
3:15 Larks Lad (1st BFSP 5.40)

SUMMARY: 4 for 7 on the day including 0 for 2 at Uttoxeter.

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Carlisle
2:20 Uncle Brit EW (RESULT: 2nd) -.60

Doncaster
3:05 Roicead EW (10th) -1
5:15 Cheworee EW (3rd) +.60

Kempton
6:45 Sekumkum (9th) -1

Uttoxeter
4:55 Western Approaches EW ***NON-RUNNER***

SUMMARY: One non-runner leaves four runners with two each-way's placing.  LSP of 4 pts wagered means -2 on the day.


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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Tuesday, 11 September

Newton Abbot was frustrating to watch.  Even when Adelar finished 3rd, I had no confidence in the call leading up to the finish when the jockey's shifted and swung their positions for the final hurdle, an action that perhaps was the reason Adelar didn't win. 

After that, Jewellery made all, a tactic I didn't expect.  And Changing Of The Guard once again won in the final strides.

Bath was collectively within less than a length of being much worse while my reserved approach to Newcastle proved the most successful call of the day.

I can see that come the fall when the jumps and chases come more into play more, I'll have to look closely at my approach.  The idea is to find horses that are favorites that have faced weak competition and/or facing stiffer competition on the day. 

It will be a matter of looking closely at my performance and reads and re-prioritize the criteria for the individual tracks to maximize returns.

- - - -

The backs for Monday were very disappointing.  My only decent call was with Maltease Ah each-way (12/1) who fought off the challenge by Red Shadow only to be caught in the final strides by Xpres Maite.  There was some value to be had but value means nothing if the calls feel like I could have done better at the roulette table.  LSP would mean a loss of around 4.5 points on the day.

I'm going to tighten the criteria further.  But it remains a 'work in progress' and I'll take the time to post the returns at LSP (level stake profit) to keep everything in perspective.

Your comments and views are always welcome.




WEAK FAVES FOR 11-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Leicester: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)
Redcar: 1 meeting: 2 for 3 (66%)
Worcester: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)


LEICESTER
2:50 Sojoum (Result: 5th of 15)
3:20 Amour Propre (4th of 8)

REDCAR
2:30 Danehill Flyer (6th of 16)
4:00 Karaka Jack (13th of 13)

WORCESTER
2:40 Chandlers Cross (3rd)
5:10 Prophete De Guye (7th of 10)

SUMMARY: A 100% strike-rate on the day with 5 of 6 unplaced. There were more pre-off drifters than usual on the day.


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

LEICESTER
2:50 Strawberry Duck EW (RESULT: 15th of 15) -1
3:20 Swiss Cross EW (3rd BFSP 11.30/2.44) +.20
4:50 Common Touch (Back but EW if 5/1 or better) (4th) -1

REDCAR
4:30 Gold Edition (3rd) -1
5:30 Broctune Papa Gio EW (1st BFSP: 8.20/2.25) +4.20

WORCESTER
3:10 On The Bridge (1st) +2.60
5:40 Jawhary EW (10th of 14) -1

SUMMARY: 3 for 7 paying dividends for an LSP of +3.00 (42% ROI)




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Friday showed a bit of how I weigh out the psychology.

In the afternoon, I had landed 5 for 6 in the afternoon.  The night before, I had scored 4 for 4 with Kempton.  But on reading Friday's cards, I had passed on all but the first race of the evening; the 6:20.

I had circled Roayh and was confident of the call despite being one of two Godophin runners, something that also pushed the odds in.  In the same race, I found that Forgive looked solid as an EW.

But with a successful afternoon, I passed on the lay which, at LSP would have risked just shy of a 1/4 of the week's profit.  Instead, a flutter on Forgive which proved to be a success at  8/1. 

The flip side is that in previous weeks when having a rough day, I have often passed on the evening card with the reasoning that I didn't want to add to my losses.

For me, finishing the week on a positive note was more important than gaining a point.  But with evening racing coming up, I need to have the confidence that I can take on an evening meeting, something that was supported with the 100% at Kempton on Thursday night. 


- -

On Friday, Forgive brought the backs into a minor green for the day after four disappointing selections in the afternoon.  Today, I found four at Newcastle, a track where I am 83% at finding 'weak faves'.  I'll be curious to see how the reads evolve.

If you have any views on the selections, feel free to comment.


WEAK FAVES FOR 10-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 7 meetings: 12 for 19 (63%)
Newcastle: 4 meeting2: 5 for 6 (83%)
Newton Abbot: no meetings to date


BATH
4:20 Stiff Upper Lip (Result: 2nd / 1/2 L)
4:50 Volcanic Jack (1st BFSP 4.53)
5:20 Aleksandar (2nd / hd)

Newcastle
4:30 John Coffey (12th of 16)

Newton Abbot
2:10 Adelar (3rd of 5)
2:40 Jewellery (1st BFSP 2.16)
4:10 Changing The Guard (1st BFSP 3.60)


SUMMARY: a disappointing first time out at Newton Abbot.  4 for 7 on the day.

Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

BATH
3:20 Diamond Vine EW - has faced several competitive horses and kept up with the pace.  Luke Morris has experience guiding the horse and going should suit. RESULT: was running mid-field and unable to find space but was one-paced one the opening came and never in the race

5:20 Reset CityEW - Has been in the mix in several races. Question mark is Cathy Gannon who needs to step up her riding at the track.  Ran


NEWCASTLE

2:30 Blue Tiger - If you look at 'in-running', 5 of 7 races this horse has been sub-2.0 but has yet to win.  The step back in distance should capitalize on the abilities of early pace.  Paul Hanagan on board for the first time. RESULT: no action from the start and was outraced from the start.

4:00 Zaplamation - A value price for a competitive horse.  Backers of the 2F and 3F could bring it out to 5/1 over towards race time at which point a solid EW play. RESULT: went off at an EW price.  Was held up early and was one paced once the race opened up and finished 4th

4:30 Maltease Ah EW with doubts about the fave, there is room in the frame for this steady performer at a great price. RESULT: ran really well and as expected and in control for the race. Challenged first by Red Shadow then beaten at the line by Xpres Maite by 3/4 length.  A consistent performer and one for the note books.

5:30 Burnwynd Boy - has raced and beaten horses that have raced over a higher mark than today's race.  A good price and any support elsewhere will be from EW punters and won't put me off. UPDATE: drifted into EW territory with 4 places on offer in a 15 runner race (8.0 / 2.20).  RESULT: Price moved back in before the off but never a solid runner in the race finishing a disappointing 5th




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WEAK FAVES' are posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM.  On occasion, there will be evening racing posted around 30 minutes before the first race. 
July: 87 for 109 - 80%. 
August: 106 for 134 - 79%
September to date: 29 for 38 - 76%

Friday, 7-Sept

Yesterday finished with 9 for 11 selections being landed including 4 for 4 with Kempton in the evening.  The 'bonus stat' was of the four 'early faves' I passed on at Kempton, two won.

The other stat that is standing out is that the average BFSP of the horses that do win their races is down to 2.90 for September compared to 3.90 for August.  Yesterday, the two horses that won their races were both odds on.  Hopefully this trend will continue.

Yesterday's backs showed that the approach is still a 'work in progress' essentially giving back Wednesday's winnings and a bit more.  I intend to pursue this further and will post with confidence.  The rest will come down to the horse and jockey.



WEAK FAVES FOR 7-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 6 meetings: 14 for 17 (82%)
Chepstow: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)
Kempton: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)


Brighton
2:10 Hikma (Result: 8th of 12)
2:40 Highlife Dancer (5th of 12)
4:20 Annes Rocket (5th of 9)

Chepstow
3:55 Red Avalanche (3rd)
4:30 Offbeat Safaris (1st BFSP 2.64)
5:35 Spic n Span (8th of 10)

Kempton
No 'weak faves' tonight but one EW added below at 6PM

SUMMARY: Five for six on the day.  I identified two horses that ran that ran earlier this week. Red Avalanche four days earlier and also finished third then.  Highlife Dancer won on the 5th at Bath but needed the whole 13 furlongs to do so.  Today at Brighton, a competitive earlier pace over a shorter distance resulted in 5th.

Offbeat Safiris winning brought a streak to an end which was 12 successful calls in succession.

The week finishes with 29 for 38 (76%).  The average price of the nine horses that won their races: BFSP 2.90, down 33% from September's average


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Haydock
2:00 Queen Grace- Ran well over various goings but performs best over quicker ground. Dictated last time out under same jockey, Shane Gray, who and gives 7 lbs. RESULT: never in contention. Finished 5th of 10

2:30 Sunny Side Up - 3 wins from 4 races.  I went through the card and can't find 'the danger'.  Laura Barry on board again giving 7 lbs.  A decent price with conditions and distance to suit. RESULT: Disappointing run that perhaps a line should be ignored.  Finished 7th of 9

Chepstow
6:05 The Lemonpie - Back onto the flat but worth a minor win bet.  Steady, strong performer that has surprised fields over the jumps.  If it drifts past 5/1, take the EW angle  RESULT: Drifted to 14/1 ran behind the pace the entire race finishing 9th of 12

Brighton
5:25 Byton EW- A decent EW in a race that offers no clear favourite.  Reservation is that Henry Candy's record of late at Brighton is not strong but Dane O'Neils abilities on faster ground on sub 8 furlong races should bring the best out of the horse. RESULT: Ran well with the leading pack but faded in the final furlong and a half

Kempton (added 6:00)
6:20 Forgive EW - A decent price for a horse that has been performing with consistence.  Distance shouldn't be a problem and if it can handle the surface, it should challenge strongly for the line. RESULT: Won @ 9.00 / 2.35



SUMMARY Though the "recommendations" are a 'work in progress', the selections were riddled with disappointment. A solid run by Forgive lands an 8/1 EW winner and an overall profit of  1/2 a point on the day at LSP. 



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Wednesday was the first "sub-70%" days since the 24th of August with 'weak faves'.  I've learned to accept it since it happens about once a week, if not more. 

The indicator to me is that if over two or three days horses are finishing within about 4 lengths over a mile, it means the reads are 'just successful'. This is represented on my data-base by yellow blocks and eventually these turn to a few 'oranges' when the horses beat my read (I stopped using 'red'. Psychologically hate seeing it on the screen).   

And when I watch the races, I can usually tell about half way through the distance if the read has been successful.  I tend to focus on the horse I am playing, back or lay, and watch its movements.  I can tell when the jockey is comfortable or about to search for a way to get extra out of the horse.  I've also learned to spot when a jockey is giving a horse a 'breather', the odds drifting way out during the in-running only to shoot back in when the horse is nudged back into gear and a strategic dash for the line is launched.

That was the case with Finch Flyer yesterday.  As I watched the race evolve in the early stages, I could tell right away that McCoy and horse were comfortable with the track and competition. 

Others on the day, I felt had to work harder for their win but the 'fade' that I am used to seeing when I make a decent call wasn't present with most of the runners.

But not a heavy loss no matter the approach.  I sometimes think of it as poker where you're stuck playing your ante until the right hand comes along.  In my case, a combination of tracks, distances, goings and data that builds a decent streak of gains.

Besides, the occasional evening of beans and toast reminds me of my uni days.

---

The flip-side; the backs returned around 3 1/2 points at LSP. Debating Society ran solidly in a competitive race while the read on Thundering Home was the high point of the afternoon running as I expected after drifting 5 pts just before the off going off at 12/1 losing the race in the closing yards.

The backs are still a 'work in progress' but still a positive result on the day.



WEAK FAVES FOR 6-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Haydock: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)
Kempton: 4 meetings: 6 for 9 (67%)
Salisbury: 2 meetings 1 for 3 (33%)
Sedgefield: 1 meeting: 1 for 2 (50%)


Haydock
4:10 Calaf (result: 1st BFSP 1.66)
4:40 Galleon (4th of 8)
5:10 Tenhoo (6th of 7)

Kempton (added 5:10)
5:40 Wordsaplenty (2nd / 1 L)
8:10 Inthar (5th of 6)
8:40 Lytham (5th of 13)
9:10 If So (3rd)

Salisbury
4:50 Harlestone Wood (2nd / hd)

Sedgefield
2:20 Indepub (1st BFSP 1.99)
3:55 Misstree Pitcher (2nd 4.5 L)
5:30 Louis Ludwig (4th of 13)


SUMMARY: 9 for 11 today (82%).

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Haydock
3:05 David Jack - Excellent time recorded over 5 Furlongs against a strong field. Quicker ground more likely to suit than for Erodium.  RESULT: finished 9th, never really factoring into the race

Salisbury
3:15 Elmanti - Both runs were strong in competitive fields but first time visit to the track for trainer.  Martin Dwyers only ride for the day. RESULT: set the pace for the race with the pack chasing till the final 1/2 furlong then lost all momentum finishing 2 1/2 lengths behind the eventual winner.

Salisbury
3:45 Elusive Flame EW - One of the more competitive races of the day and Elusive Flame is in the mix of almost every race it runs in.  William Buick on board.  RESULT: was with the pace for the race and had a narrow lead till 1/2 a furlong out then faded

Sedgefield
3:55 Hunters Belt EW - A bit of a flutter but has run better than others running today over similar ground. RESULT: chased the leaders but never in contention

Kempton (added 5:10)
8:40 Minstrel Lad EW - forgive the last run at the track.  New surface is still being worked in and favouring horses that have traveled on ground with give. RESULT: chased the leading pack but nothing extra and couldn't keep up for the run to the line




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Yesterday, I took on Cushion who only had one race to date.  I usually like more races to cross-reference but when I looked at the race that took place a month ago at Newmarket, there was no evidence that any of the other horses that ran that day were solid performers.

Horses that beat Cushion that day: The winner of the race, Everleigh, and Strictly Silca both showed little in the subsequent races while Rainbow Beauty did place under Luke Morris but in a race with little substance.

Horses that Cushion beat: Ottauquechee raced over a shorter distance finishing further behind the eventual winner than at Newmarket (though the race was on softer ground) and Kikonga did improve but not enough to indicate it had been a strong competitor at Newmarket.

Yesterday was a tight betting race between the top three.  But for an early fave to be in contention, it needs to have raced against strong horses and competitive fields.  In the case of Newmarket last month, the quality of the field and their subsequent performances did not warrant Cushion being favorite at Goodwood yesterday.

In the 2:55, Cushion did challenge for the line (going 1.30 in-running) but did fade in the finish ending up behind Liber Nauticus and Heading North.


I won't make it a habit of assessing horses with only one or two runs but if one stands out on the day, then it is worth taking on.



WEAK FAVES FOR 5-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 6 meetings: 10 for 16 (63%)
Hereford: no meetings to date
Lingfield:7 meetings: 15 for 17 (88%)


Bath
3:50 I See You (Result: 2nd / 1.25 L)
4:50 Highlife Dancer (1st BFSP 3.19)
5:20 Ridgeway Sapphire (7th of 12)

Hereford
2:40 Finch Flyer (1st BFSP 2.88)
3:40 Alayir (pulled up)
4:10 Scotsbrook Cloud (1st BFSP 2.17)

Lingfield
4:00 Urban Space (5th of 7)

SUMMARY: Only one track paid dividends today.  Overall, 4 for 7.


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Lingfield
2:00 Labienus - competitive race but solid performer over a familiar distance  (3.55 at noon)
RESULT: Finished 8th and never factored into the race.

4:30 Debating Society - should perform well over the going and distance in a highly competitive race (4.0 at noon)
RESULT: 1st (BFSP 3.80). Stiff competition but was prominent throughout the race

Bath
4:50 Thundering Home EW - Experience at the distance and should handle any give in the ground. (13.00 at noon in a ten runner affair)
RESULT: 2nd (BFSP 13.73 / 3.48) Moved in throughout the afternoon to 8/1 then drifted heavily just before the off out to 15/1,  Despite a solid, strong run, Highlife Dancer pushed pass Thundering Home winning by 2 lengths.



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