SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Thursday, 13 September

I walked away from Wednesday's racing with neither call at Uttoxeter coming in.  I watched Christopher Ward position Stage Acclaim perfectly before the final hurdle and knew that there was a clear lane for the horse that looked as fresh as it did at the start.  I went in knowing that the jockey gave 8 lbs but thought even then the margin was there for others to prevail.

And despite tight betting in the top three in the market, Lark's Lad won the next race as well.

I was pleased with the Doncaster call in the 4:45.  Even when the openings came, Strictly Silver didn't have the engine to tackle the others and remained part of the mid-field. 

The average price of horses that have won increased from 2.90 to 3.19 (notably, Lark's Lad at 5.40 BFSP) and the strike-rate this week is 70% bringing September to 74%. 

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Two each-ways made the frame but, overall, four 1 pt bets would have returned a loss of 2 pts at BFSP. 


WEAK FAVES FOR 13-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Chepstow: 2 meetings: 5 for 6 (83%)
Doncaster: 6 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Epsom: 3 meetings: 5 for 7 (71%)
Wolverhampton: 7 meetings: 18 for 18 (100%)


Chepstow
4:25 Siberian Belle (6th of 12)
5:00 Percythepinto (3rd)
5:30 Presto Volante (1st BFSP 5.50)

Doncaster
1:50 Sentaril (5th of 18)
4:35 Trade Storm (3rd)

Epsom
3:05 Classic Falcon (7th of 7) *possibly shook up from stall incident
5:15 Aubrietia (6th of 9)

Wolverhampton (added 6:27)
7:50 Alnoomaas (1st BFSP 2.17)
8:50 Invigilator (4th of 12)

SUMMARY: 7 for 9 including 2 for 2 at Doncaster.  Alnoomaas ended a streak of 18 at Wolverhampton that goes back to 2-July.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Chepstow
4:25 Belle Park EW (2nd) -.50

Doncaster
2:20 "two against the field" Hototo EW and King Dragon EW (2pts wagered) -2.00
2:55 Wild Coco (1st BFSP 3.1) + 2.10
4:05 Amadeus Wolfe Tone EW (1st BFSP 5.87) +2.90

Wolverhampton (added 6:27)
8:20 Imjam River (win bet but EW if 6's or better) (2nd BFSP 5.87/2.02) *hit 6.0+ several times before off and matchedEW +0.00

SUMMARY: A 60% ROI at Doncaster today while each-ways landed at Chepstow and Wolverhampton. 6 pts wagered give a return of +2.50 pts (41% ROI)


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