SHAPESHIFTER

Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Wednesday, 12 September


Tuesday finished with a clean sheet, five of the six horses unplaced.  What stood out for me was that the drifts through the afternoon were more extensive than expected considering all had been favourites in their races around 11AM when I take the readings.

Only two remained favourite while two went off 2F, the other two 3F.

Danehill Flyer moved extremely from 5.5 out to 8, in again then out at the off.  Prophete De Guye, co-fave in the morning, went from moving steadily into 4.4 in the A.M. to 6.60 at the off.

But part of my premise is that horses that are favourites on the board aren't the most likely to win the race and I can't be the only one that thinks that. 

My other theory on all the spikes; Andy Murray kept the traders going till 2:30 A.M. in the morning making for a different pace to the market after 65 million pounds was matched on the tennis final.

And, I stress again, that a 'weak fave' might not necessarily be the best play in a race, especially when it drifts out in the market, but could be used as an indicator to find a value bet, back or each way, elsewhere in the field.

And set your limit and don't chase the betting up.  Danehill Flyer is a perfect example with the spikes all afternoon. And Prophete De Guye might have gone off at 6.60 but it moved into 3.10 in-running.  So a lay placed and kept at better odds would have been matched before it faded into 7th place.

- -

The backs faired better with 40% being returned on a 7 bets but will add up the plus/minus after three weeks to decide if I will continue posting them



WEAK FAVES FOR 12-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Carlisle: 2 meetings: 4 for 8 (50f%)
Doncaster: 5 meetings: 5 for 7 (71%)
Kempton: 5 meetings: 10 for 13 (77%)
Uttoxeter: no meetings to date


Carlisle
1:50 Poppy Bond (RESULT: 7th of 12)
5:05 Boots And Spurs (1st BFSP 3.80)
5:35 Silver Samba (3rd of 5)

Doncaster
4:45 Strictly Silver (6th of 14)

Kempton
9:15 Admiralty (7th of 12)

Uttoxeter
2:40 Stage Acclaim (1st BFSP 2.42)
3:15 Larks Lad (1st BFSP 5.40)

SUMMARY: 4 for 7 on the day including 0 for 2 at Uttoxeter.

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Carlisle
2:20 Uncle Brit EW (RESULT: 2nd) -.60

Doncaster
3:05 Roicead EW (10th) -1
5:15 Cheworee EW (3rd) +.60

Kempton
6:45 Sekumkum (9th) -1

Uttoxeter
4:55 Western Approaches EW ***NON-RUNNER***

SUMMARY: One non-runner leaves four runners with two each-way's placing.  LSP of 4 pts wagered means -2 on the day.


***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***

Your comments and views are always welcomed