SHAPESHIFTER

It's a grey Monday but I'm still reeling from Sunday's Ryder Cup and some decent NFL plays, a sport I used to bet on more weekly when I lived in Montreal.

Those that enjoy taking on U.S. football, my blog is over in 'North America' blogs:
http://community.betfair.com/shapeshifter/blog/2012/09/29/shapeshifter-value-rated-bets-nfl-wk-4

I'm still 'reviewing' September which was, well, a challenging month.  My premise is that selections will 'weaken' under the pressure of the competition of the day, not just lose.  Though, overall, the price of the horses won averaged just over 3/1, the reads felt inconsistent to me and the number of horses coming second and third inside 4 lengths were far too frequent.

I did find myself being hit by some jockey's that were getting 'more' out of their horses.  Anyone that does speed ratings, take a look at horses and the % plus or minus under some jockey's. There are some that have low winning percentage but can often get an EW horse to perform X percent better and challenge for the line.

And I marked 9 horses that won that literally came to halt after the line (a mentor of mine taught me to watch horses after the line - the insight is sometimes obvious) meaning they just made the running.  They go in the notebook for their next race and if there is a step up in distance or weight or more trying conditions.

And everyone seems to be focusing on 'the lay', perhaps even myself.  As I have said, I use "BFSP" and the success of the play as an 'indicator'.  Those reading the selections, take them on board but look at different angles on using the info. 

If it knocks out a 5/2 and the next three in the betting are 6/1, 7/1 and 9/1 in a ten runner race where two of the runners are 100/1 or higher, look for the dutch or EW dutch.  The return for the risk can be much more substantial.

More later this week including numbers, stats, etc.  Roll on, October.

WEAK FAVES FOR 1-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 8 meetings: 14 for 22 (64%)
Newton Abbot: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)


Bath
3:20 Caterina (Result: 13th of 14)
3:50 The Giving Tree (2nd by 3 L)

Early Price: Caterina 5.20 / The Giving Tree 5.10

Newton Abbot
4:00 Desolait (7th of 11)

Early Price: Desolait 4.60

SUMMARY: A nice start to October with all three 'weak faves' being correct calls.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Newton Abbot
3:00 The Lemonpie EW  (result: 1st BFSP 6.93 / 2.40) +3.60

SUMMARY: The Lemon Pie made the running from the tape going up to the finish without a challenge.


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NFL WEEK 4 SUMMARY

Three of four selections landed on the day returning 20 pts (ROI 50%) 

Two of the outcomes were settled on the last play of the game. 

As per the write-up, the media and pundits all kept mentioning the Vikings 0-11 record and three previous losses against the Lions and too much emphasis was put on this and, for me, created more value in the play.

It was the right move to play Money Line on the Eagles.  The line leading into Sunday was -3.5 on betfair, so the Giants covered that though some firms moved to -2 on Sunday ending with a 'push'.

Both underdog selections were landed.

If there are selections for Thursday, I will post that day.  For Sunday, I will post on Saturday, updating the odds Sunday morning.

I also have a daily blog in HORSE RACING>BLOGS with selecting fave's to avoid and value bets to back.

Comments and views are always welcome.



Each week, I'll focus on finding value bets supported by confident and in depth research.

Here are four for you to consider.


GIANTS AT PHILADEPHIA

Over the first three games of the season, Philadephia have given the opposition the edge by serving up turnovers and interceptions. The Giants are notorious for pressuring the opposing offense to give up the ball so practice and team meetings would have been focused on tightening the screws of their leaky ship.

The Giants are one of the teams to find their line-up being defined by injury more than ability.  The Giants had the edge over Carolina last week and Andre Brown led the way with +100 yards when given the ball and carrying it into the end-zone twice while the team averaged 15 yards every time the ball was thrown to Ramses Barden.

Philadelphia will have to tighten their control of the ball and contain the newcomers to the Giants line-up but with ratings indicating a 66% chance of winning, the home team gets the edge.

PHILADELPHIA 12 pts @ 1.82 (Moneyline) (in from 1.90)

SUMMARY The Giants worked to set themselves up for a last minute field goal but an interference penalty knocked the team back from the posts.  An attempt of a +50 yard field goal was right down the middle.....but short. +9.80

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WASHINGTON AT TAMPA BAY

2012 started the new season with victories, Washington did it on the road against The Saints while Tampa beat the Panthers by six at home.

But after that, they have both gone 0-2 in hard fought, close games. 

Redskins QB Robert Griffin is the rookie to watch and is performing well in all categories, leading QB's in yards rushing including carrying the ball in three times.  As much as this keeps defenses guessing, clutch plays have let the team down.

Tampa's defense has been a wall when it comes to dealing with opposing ground plays allowing less than 150 yards this season.  But their secondary has been letting the most basic of chalk board passing plays gain an average of over 340+ yards a game.

Bringing all the stats and rating h2h and counting on improvements to their passing defense, I give the Buc's a 75% chance at home on Sunday making the money line a value play.

TAMPA 10 pts @ 1.85 (Moneyline)

SUMMARY Tampa went into half time down 21-6 to the visitors.  Despite Tampa having a strong second half, Washington won with a field goal on the last play of the game to win as underdogs 24-22. -10.00

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MINNESOTA AT DETROIT

So the Vikings start the season well and should actually be 3 and 0 if not for a two touchdown comeback to be thwarted by a 53 yard field goal in the last minute of week two.

Meanwhile, Detroit are 1 and 2 with some soft aspects to their team causing havoc to their game plans.

So why are they favourites going into tomorrows game?  Minnesota record against the NFC north: eleven straight losses, three of those against Detroit.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was solid last year but has started this season a bit scattered.  Connecting with Johnson has produced gains but only one touchdown. 

Chris Ponder is showing his confidence and took on the '49er last week.  As well, he already has several offensive options that will only improve more with the return of Adrian Peterson.

Two weeks ago, Detroit showed their defense can be penetrated on the ground when they played San Francisco.  Minnesota face a challenge against Safford.

But the past has created a value bet backing the Vikings with split stakes between the money line and the spread.

MINNESOTA  +3.5 4 pts @ 2.06
MINNESOTA 4 pts @ 2.96 (Moneyline) (out from 2.80)

SUMMARY: Despite Detroit QB Matthew Stafford throwing 300+ yards, the Vikings won the first half 13-6 and went on to win 20-13, covering the spread (+3.5) the spread and landing the split bet +12.00 

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CAROLINA AT ATLANTA

The Falcons go into week four with a solid 3-0 season, a confident quarter back and an offense with depth that is dominating the NFC.  With just one interception so far this year, there is not many opportunities to turn the momentum against Atlanta.

Cam Newton had a great 2011 but is trying to find his way into 2012.  But because their rush has lacked any sort of impact this season, he's been turning to the air resulting in added pressure which resulted in five interceptions this season thwarting momentum.

Weighing it out, I think that week four could be the turn-around week for Newton.  It will take some rethinking of their ground attack but he did well last year with his multi-pronged approach from the pocket. 

I have doubts that the Falcon defense can sustain themselves and the game will probably come down to the fourth quarter making Carolina +7.5 a solid bet.

Carolina +7.5 10 pts @1.84

SUMMARY: As thought, the game was settled in the 4th quarter, Atlanta scoring a final seconds field goal to win 30-28.  Carolina covered the spread (+7.5) and the bet was landed.  Stand-out stat of the game: Falcon's QB Ryan sacked seven times. +8.40

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I rarely take on a race with only a handful of races to compare but one stood out on Thursday.

The 2:20 race at Pontefract had several first time runners while the three that were prominent in the betting collectively had 5 races.  Those horses were Loch Moy, Flawless Beauty and Surge Ahead.

When I looked at the race, I couldn't flag up the morning favourite, Loch Moy, as a 'weak fave' off of one race.  But since there were only 5 races between the three horses, I decided to take a few minutes and compare up their times and make an assessment.

I had two speed ratings with Loch Moy that were 'intermediate' at best.  Flawless had two runs with solid ratings but had yet to run over ground with give so a line put through the horse.

When you look at Surge Ahead's form, you see one run finishing 9th of 11 at Kempton.  But some factors to bring on board:

a) Surge Ahead was 9th BUT only abour 1.5 seconds behind the finishing time of the winner.

b) Kempton's surface was changed in August.  The first few meets in August, the horses looked like they were running in slow motion.  And though some said it was 'closer to standards' by the middle of August, I found that times and results said otherwise. 

Eliminating Flawless Beauty, I compared ratings between Lock Moy and Surge Ahead once I adjusted Kempton and they were more or less the same.  Surge Ahead was 5/1 so I took the EW approach to the race.

I went into the bet knowing there were some unraced horses but with confidence of a top three finish in a nine runner race.

Surge Ahead did move in during the day so the 'early price' proved to be value and the horse won.

A solid run by Flawless Beauty over softer ground than previous races put the horse in my notebook for the future.


- - -

I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 28-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races


Haydock
4:45 Chosen Character (Result: 1st BFSP 3.90)
5:15 Grand Liaison (1st 3.17)

Early Price: Chosen Character 4.90 (drifted to 5.20 by time of posting) / Grand Liason 4.00)

Stratford
1:05 Time For Spring (3rd of 7)

Early Price: Time For Spring 3.20

Newmarket
5:10 Exning Halt (2nd by a neck)

Early Price: Exning Halt 4.50


SUMMARY September closes with 2 for 4 correct.  With Exning finishing 2nd by a neck and winning margins at Haydock were a 1/2 length and a neck, it makes Time For Spring the only true selection when 'weakening' at the second to last fence at Stratford.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Haydock
2:30 Eightfold EW (unplaced) -1.00

Newmarket
1:45 Thistle Bird -1.00
2:55 Certify (1st BFSP 1.73) +0.70
4:00 Sea Of Heartbreak (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY Certify was the second odds on in two days but looking at the race, I couldn't find the danger and took the plunge.  I had 1.64 but when the horse drifted at the off to 1.75+, I topped up then traded out my original stake.  Thistle Bird was outpaced for the final 50 yards while Sea Of Heartbreak had nothing extra after towards the line when taking the lead 2 furlongs out.  At LSP, 4 points wagered would have returned -2.30

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Last night, the 6:20 was a race where watching the market could lead to more profit than simply laying a horse that you think is going to lose.

I had identified Henry Clay as a 'weak fave'.

With three non-runners, there were now eight runners left.

I watched the market and the support continued to come for Henry Blake moving in from 4's to 3.50. Of the other seven runners, there was no significant movement for the ten or fifteen minutes leading up to the race with all the horses remaining close to the prices they had been for the two hours leading up.

With my doubts on the fave, laying for a point would mean a risk of 2.50 points or a 40% return.

But with no movement and eight runners, my attention turned to the 2F, Positive who had been steady in the betting.

The horse was just inside my each way cut off of 5/1.  So half my risk for the race, 1.25 points, went on at 5.60.

I then scanned my notes and the balance of 1.25 went EW on Asatir and Silvestre De Sousa.

So 2.50 risked, the same amount I would have invested in taking on Henry Clay.

The result:
Asatir -1.25
Positive 5.75
NET: 4.50

So roughly four times as much made on the same event.

It isn't always this way but if the betting has remained steady and defined and you have the reads in front of you, it's a matter of making a profit from "putting a line through a horse" rather than laying it.

And the psychology on it is that if both Henry Clay and the two selections lost, your loss is 2.50 points and not to think of it as a missed opportunity to lay a horse. 

- - -

I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 27-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Newmarket: 3 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)
Perth: 3 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
Pontefract: 2 meetings: 5 for 6 (83%)
Wolverhampton: 9 meetings: 20 for 23 (87%)

Newmarket:
4:15 Cavalryman (2nd by 2 and 1/4 lengths)
4:50 Crown Counsel (5th of11)
5:25 Ladyship (2nd by 1 length)

Early Prices: Cavalryman 3.80 / Crown Counsel 5.00 / Ladyship 3.85


Perth
5:05 The Magic Bishop (2nd by 15 L)

Early Prices: The Magic Bishop 4.00

Pontefract
2:55 Mad Jazz (1st BFSP 3.10)
3:30 Kellys Eye(1st BFSP 3.72)
5:15 Hyperlink (5th of 8)

Early Prices: Mad Jazz 3.70 / 3:30 Kellys Eye 4.70 / Hyperlink 4.60

SUMMARY: 5 for 7 on the day with both horses that won at Pontefract.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Newmarket (R)
3:40 Havana Gold (1st) +1.40

Pontefract
2:20 Surge Ahead EW (1st BFSP 4.94 / 1.85) +2.40

SUMMARY: A 2 for 2 day backing horses bringing the week into profit with a strike-rate of 3 for 6 (50%)

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Yesterday shows how this world can swing around.  After ten days of sub-par results, I landed six for six over the three tracks and ending the day with a success streak of ten selections in a row.

I stayed close to the approach I have used which is to look at the competition that the horses have had and gauge from there.  Speed ratings was the 'final tick' that rated Colourist behind Starlight Angel and Secretori in a four runner race.

I selected Tiger Webb for a second time this month.  Both times, the horse went off at 5/2 and both times was unplaced, yesterday finishing 8th of 12.

I had doubts on thecornishcowboy winning at 5/4 in the morning, but I passed having successfully selected it earlier this year.  The horse went onto win by a neck over Titus Bolt.

And despite betting spiking out and in several times before the start on Winning Note, the selection finished well outside the frame.

In general, as the afternoon evolved, changing conditions made it difficult for punters.  For Rime Avec Gentil, I had already looked at performance based on worsening ground, a decision that only supported the call when the rains came at Newton Abbot.

Though for backing, each way was the way to go at all the tracks, several 'early faves' such as Altharoos, Gull Rock, Authentication and Minella Stars went on to win their races making Tuesday's 100% an even more positive read.

As of end of day Tuesday, the streak of successful calls is at ten.

- - -

I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 26-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Goodwood: 4 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Kempton: 7 meetings: 13 for 17 (76%)
Perth: 2 meetings: 2 for 3 (67%)


Goodwood
3:10 Positively (result: 8th of 8)
4:15 Cardinal Walter (3rd)

Early Prices: Positively 5.0 / Cardinal Walter 3.50

Kempton
6:20 Henry Clay (7th of 8)
8:20 Enthusiastic (1st BFSP 3.88)
9:20 Leelu (2nd)

Early Prices: Henry Clay 4.30 / Enthusiastic 5.20 / Leelu 3.70 

Perth
3:20 Kai Broon (2nd by 17 Lengths)
4:30 Nodforms Violet (1st BFSP: 4.50)

Early Prices: Kai Broon 3.15 / Nodforms Violet 4.80

SUMMARY 3 for 4 on the afternoon card with Nodforms Violet ending a streak that saw thirteen in a row.  Evening at Kempton produced 2 for 3 bringing the week to 15 for 20 (75%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Goodwood
3:40 Ektihaam (2nd by a neck) -1.00

Kempton
8:50 Strategic Action EW (unplaced) -1.00

Perth
2:10 Mulligans Man (1st: BFSP 1.55) +.55
5:05 Flying Doctor EW (7th) -1.00



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There are times when you feel like you can't read a comic book let alone horse form.  I do a 'post mortem' on most race selections.  I'll note why it went right or wrong or look at another runner in the race to figure out which aspect or course stood out that should be the 'indicator' on why it ran well or poorly.

The past ten days, there has been a fair amount of post mortem analysis.  But despite having been knocked on the chin several times, it's a matter of remaining focused and being careful that I don't 'over think' or get 'gun shy' with my selections. 

Monday, I missed the first three races due to ringing phones and a visiting Canadian business partner who dubbed me his 'P.A.' after leaving his phone in a taxi.  It was disheartening to return to the screen and see nothing but 'red' on my grid after three races.  I then switched my 'brain' into neutral and I just sat away from the pixels to watch the remainder of the day unfold.

It started with Windygoul Lad losing in a photo and the results turn with three unplaced in a row despite pundits and the markets predicting otherwise.

And though I finished the day with a streak of four selections, I need to remain neutral and spend the evening going over the day's coroner reports and prepare to move into Tuesday with a positive and focused attitude.

- - -

For a second day, I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 25-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Beverley: 5 meetings: 5 for 8 (63%)
Folkestone: 3 meetings: 5 for 6 (83%)
Newton Abbot: 1 meeting: 1 for 3 (33%)


Beverley
3:10 Ponty Acclaim (3rd of 6)
5:10 Tiger Webb (8th of 12)
5:40 Cool Baranca (Non-runner)

Early Prices: Ponty Acclaim 3.65 / Tiger Webb 3.80 / Cool Baranca 4.60

Folkestone
2:30 Colourist (2nd by 2 lengths)
3:30 Centrifugal (4th of 5)

Early Prices: Colourist 3.00 / Centrifugal 3.55

Newton Abbot
2:20 Winning Note (7th of 10)
4:20 Rime Avec Gentil (2nd by 7 lengths)

Early Prices: Winning Note: 5.10 / Rime Avec Gentil 5.40

Just the selections today after a weekend of travel.  Best of luck with your week.

I've added in 'Early Prices' that is the price that was available between 11 and 12.  This is nothing more than a guide since whether a horse steams or drifts, I will post the Betfair SP with the results.


WEAK FAVES FOR 24-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Hamilton: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
Kempton: 6 meetings: 11 for 14 (79%)
Leicester: 3 meetings: 7 for 7 (100%)


Hamilton
2:10 Jack Luey (Result: 1st BFSP 4.30)
4:40 Windygoul Lad (2nd in photo)

Early prices: Jack Luey 4.60 / 4.10

Kempton
4:20 Intransigen (1st BFSP 3.73)
5:20 Cruiser (5th of 8)
5:50 Great Shot (8th of 9)

Early prices: Intransigen 3.30 / Cruiser 3.80 / Great Shot 4.40

Leicester
4:00 Ajjaadd (1st: BFSP 8.40)
5:00 Buckland (4th of 7)

Early prices: Ajjaadd 4.90 / Buckland 3.80


SUMMARY The week started with three losing unsuccessful selections in a row, including Ajjaadd who drifted out to 7/1+ on Betfair. 




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SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 17 to 21 SEPTEMBER

FOR THE WEEK: 23 for 36 selections (64%)
SEPTEMBER TO DATE: 78 for 110 (71%)

SELECTIONS TO BACK
14 selections
Return at LSP: 1.68
ROI 12%

Followers hit 100 this week.  Thank you.


Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Friday, 21-September

Just focusing on 'weak faves' today and giving the 'writer' the day off.


WEAK FAVES FOR 21-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ayr: 6 meetings: 13 for 16 (81%)
Brighton: 8 meetings: 19 for 22 (86%)
Lingfield: 8 meetings: 16 for 18 (89%)
Newbury: 2 meetings: 1 for 3 (33%)
Wolverhampton: 8 meetings: 21 for 23 (91%) 


Ayr
2:50 Majestic Moon (Result: 8th of 8)
5:10 Ingleby Angel (1st)

Brighton
2:05 One Way Or Another (3rd)

Lingfield
3:50 Welease Bwian (3rd)
4:25 Seven Veils (1st BFSP 3.40)
5:00 English Summer (1st 4.00)

Newbury
4:50 Zumbi (5th of 9)

SUMMARY: 4 for 7 on the day (57%), the main disappointment being the read on Lingfield.

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Weak faves is posted Monday to Friday between noon and 1PM


Thursday, 20-September

I've accepted the ups and downs that go with the world of gambling (Wednesday - 4 for 8 on 'weak fave' selections).  This is mainly down to learning to subdue any periods when I felt like I had the "midas touch' when every selection in every sport comes together as planned.  It helps keep a perspective on the overall rather than 'the moment'.

It means having to remained focused. 

I used to have to do that when I played golf.  When I had a bad hole, I would pause and leave it behind me before I hit the next tee shot.  I then had to notch up my focus rather than let that bad hole suck me in.

I also don't allow 'luck' to come into my mindset.  Okay, yes, there are moments when something happens in an event that affects an outcome.  But every time you place a wager, you need to accept that 'luck', good, bad or otherwise, could be part of the outcome.

My relationship with wagering on horses comes down to the reads.  I 'visualize' the outcome.  I look at the form, the distance, the races the horses I target have been in and 'picture' the race unfolding.  I did that with Rocket Rob.  I had the figures, the notes from previous races and a good overview of the field.  I knew the start and early furlongs would be the way they were.  And through calculation, I pictured Rocket Rob behind a pace set by Aye Aye Digby and Macdillon leaving no room for error in the middle sectionals to win, the expected slow start carrying an extra burden with the step back to five furlongs.

Well, I was 99.99% right.  Every aspect that I pictured in the read came together...except the finish.  That .01% was a 1/2 length which is roughly a tenth of a second over 1100 yards of race. 

In post-mortem, I decided that tenth of a second was William Buick.  I've watched enough racing to know that his ability to 'anticipate' is top notch and made up for mid-race position Rocket Rob ran into.

I wrote this a few weeks ago when I had flagged up Main Sequence as a 'weak fave' at York;

I equally enjoyed the 3:05.  Yes, Main Sequence was held in second.  But, for me, it was the ride by William Buick on Thought Worthy that was the hilite. 

I watched the final stages several times last night.  As Thought Worthy lead into the tight, final corner, Buick timed the moment perfectly knowing that the distance between himself and the pack wouldn't allow them to see him giving the initial, subtle kick to accelerate earlier than expected.  Thought Worthy rose to the task and accelerated through the corner holding the line perfectly with the same enthusiasm as a horse entering the straight.  It was an incredible, incredible tactical move by Buick as well as genuine team work between rider and horse.

That 'hidden' move to kick a moment earlier than expected was the difference between winning by a length and losing by four.

So as I flip through the balance of 'post mortems', I'll find where the reads were spot on and where the obvious was right there in front of me and will strive to factor it into future plays.

And, with a bit of luck, I'll get back on track.

- - -
Again, I was pleased with the selections to back.  These are horses that stand out when I am going through the fave's in the morning.  Win selections are more than likely horses that have raced well in competitive races and when looking at the field, I can't see the danger.  Each way's are horses who appear to have consistent performances and/or decent figures with my ratings.

Both each way selections paid dividends yesterday giving a return of +3.25 from 4 points wagered.

- - -

Yesterday's racing featured two jockey stories:

Richard Hughes landed six winners out of thirteen races at Sandown and Kempton.  Blindly wagering would have returned a 100% return on the day.

Meanwhile, Freddy Tylicki had three runs at Yarmouth and almost landed a treble involving three different trainers that would have paid £19,000 on a one pound wager at SP.  After winning on on Semayyel (BFSP 592) and Emerald Wilderness (48.30), he came in second on Stone Of Folca behind My Propeller and Frankie Dettori.

If you blindly backed Richard Hughes on his 674 rides in 2012, at SP you would be down £26.  Blindly backing Freddy Tylicki for his 369 rides.....£111 for a 30% ROI.



WEAK FAVES FOR 20-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 6 meetings: 11 for 14 (79%)
Pontefract: 1 meeting: 4 for 4 (100%)
Yarmouth: 7 meetings: 18 for 23 (78%)

Kempton
If there are any selections, they will be posted before race time.

Pontefract
3:30 Desert Romance (Result: 3rd)
4:00 Misplaced Fortune (1st BFSP 9.46) *drifted from 4's at noon to 4F in the market

Yarmouth
3:20 East Texas Red (3rd of 6)
4:20 Montaser (2nd by 3/4 L)
5:20 Saloomy (2nd of 5)

SUMMARY 4 out of 5 on the day.  East Texas Red was backed heavily right up to the stalls opening but was never a threat. Misplaced Fortune won after drifting from 7/2 out to 8/1 +.  Yes, drifters do win.

Stand-out recommendations to back:

Pontefract
3:30 Fastnet Storm EW (Result: 2nd BFSP 23 / 5.78) +1.90

Yarmouth
4:50 Candycakes EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY: A profitable day of backing despite no 'winner' with Fastnet Storm drifting from 10/1 out to 22/1 before the off then finishing a solid second.  2 points wagered would have returned +0.90 (45% ROI)


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On Tuesday, I flagged up Diamond Belle as a 'weak fave'.  With just four runners, it is often easy to compare horses.  If someone took note of the times that horses had done, little or no difference would have been found between the runners.  But this is where knowing the tracks, standard times and, ultimately the speed ratings come in handy. 

Even looking at the surface, taking the times against the tracks raced, Diamond Belle had achieved times on what I consider 'easier' tracks where the standard times are higher.  From there, when I looked at my ratings, it confirmed this.

Others must have noted the same since the horse drifted out past the other three and eventually became one-paced two furlongs from home.


Both my each way's ran well yesterday, Comrade Bond finishing a competitive 3rd and Suzie's A Class Act unfortunately beaten by my selected 'weak fave'. 

Taking on longer priced horses can be frustrating since when I'm wrong, I'm usually really wrong with the horse fading and finishing well out of the frame with barely a commentator mention during the race. 

Once I have a few selections, one of my approaches is to sometimes go to the Timeform result pages and look at the odds.  If you look at Comrade Bond's in-running, besides the wins, you'll see that the prices matched indicate efforts made:

BFSP 8 into 4.70 in-running
13.48 into 2.66
12.18 to sub 1.30

Obviously I am simplifying this but once you fiddle with goings, distances, etc, and couple this with race description, you can usually see if the horse will give you a 'run for your money' or see if it is exposed and tends to run at the odds on offer rather than challenging for the line.

Couple this with a jockey that can get 'extra' out of a runner and you'll find yourself landing a 12/1 shot that fuels you for the next three days.


WEAK FAVES FOR 19-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Beverley: 4 meeting: 4 for 6 (66%)
Sandown: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
Yarmouth: 7 meetings: 17 for 20 (85%)

Beverley
3:05 Magical Rose (Result: 1st BFSP 2.90)
4:10 Fear Nothing (3rd)

Sandown
2:20 Rocket Rob (1st: BFSP 4.37)
4:00 Tazahum (2nd by a neck)
5:05 Quality Pearl (11th of 13) *drifted out past 8's.

Yarmouth
3:50 Anjaz (3rd)
4:20 Shenas Dream (1st BFSP 3.93)
4:55 My Propeller (1st: BFSP 3.65)

SUMMARY A sub-par performance with only 4 of 8 calls being correct.


Stand-out recommendations to back:

Beverley
3:40 Just Like Heaven EW (2nd: BFSP 5.96 / 2.12) +.05

Sandown
4:35 Royal Empire (2nd) -1.00

Yarmouth
2:40 Links Drive Lady EW (1st: BFSP 9.44 / 2.90) +5.20
5:25 Arch Villain (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Two win only bets man placed in their races, Royal Empire being the disappointment of the two. Both EW's paid dividends with Links Drive Lady being the hilite of the day. 4 points wagered returns +3.25

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