SHAPESHIFTER

I rarely take on a race with only a handful of races to compare but one stood out on Thursday.

The 2:20 race at Pontefract had several first time runners while the three that were prominent in the betting collectively had 5 races.  Those horses were Loch Moy, Flawless Beauty and Surge Ahead.

When I looked at the race, I couldn't flag up the morning favourite, Loch Moy, as a 'weak fave' off of one race.  But since there were only 5 races between the three horses, I decided to take a few minutes and compare up their times and make an assessment.

I had two speed ratings with Loch Moy that were 'intermediate' at best.  Flawless had two runs with solid ratings but had yet to run over ground with give so a line put through the horse.

When you look at Surge Ahead's form, you see one run finishing 9th of 11 at Kempton.  But some factors to bring on board:

a) Surge Ahead was 9th BUT only abour 1.5 seconds behind the finishing time of the winner.

b) Kempton's surface was changed in August.  The first few meets in August, the horses looked like they were running in slow motion.  And though some said it was 'closer to standards' by the middle of August, I found that times and results said otherwise. 

Eliminating Flawless Beauty, I compared ratings between Lock Moy and Surge Ahead once I adjusted Kempton and they were more or less the same.  Surge Ahead was 5/1 so I took the EW approach to the race.

I went into the bet knowing there were some unraced horses but with confidence of a top three finish in a nine runner race.

Surge Ahead did move in during the day so the 'early price' proved to be value and the horse won.

A solid run by Flawless Beauty over softer ground than previous races put the horse in my notebook for the future.


- - -

I have posted the 'early prices' that are the readings I took between 11 and 12 when my long list becomes short.  But to keep performance in perspective, I will continue to present the Betfair SP with results. 

How you use and/or calculate the returns of any or all of the selections would be up to you.


WEAK FAVES FOR 28-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races


Haydock
4:45 Chosen Character (Result: 1st BFSP 3.90)
5:15 Grand Liaison (1st 3.17)

Early Price: Chosen Character 4.90 (drifted to 5.20 by time of posting) / Grand Liason 4.00)

Stratford
1:05 Time For Spring (3rd of 7)

Early Price: Time For Spring 3.20

Newmarket
5:10 Exning Halt (2nd by a neck)

Early Price: Exning Halt 4.50


SUMMARY September closes with 2 for 4 correct.  With Exning finishing 2nd by a neck and winning margins at Haydock were a 1/2 length and a neck, it makes Time For Spring the only true selection when 'weakening' at the second to last fence at Stratford.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Haydock
2:30 Eightfold EW (unplaced) -1.00

Newmarket
1:45 Thistle Bird -1.00
2:55 Certify (1st BFSP 1.73) +0.70
4:00 Sea Of Heartbreak (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY Certify was the second odds on in two days but looking at the race, I couldn't find the danger and took the plunge.  I had 1.64 but when the horse drifted at the off to 1.75+, I topped up then traded out my original stake.  Thistle Bird was outpaced for the final 50 yards while Sea Of Heartbreak had nothing extra after towards the line when taking the lead 2 furlongs out.  At LSP, 4 points wagered would have returned -2.30

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