SHAPESHIFTER

It's a grey Monday but I'm still reeling from Sunday's Ryder Cup and some decent NFL plays, a sport I used to bet on more weekly when I lived in Montreal.

Those that enjoy taking on U.S. football, my blog is over in 'North America' blogs:
http://community.betfair.com/shapeshifter/blog/2012/09/29/shapeshifter-value-rated-bets-nfl-wk-4

I'm still 'reviewing' September which was, well, a challenging month.  My premise is that selections will 'weaken' under the pressure of the competition of the day, not just lose.  Though, overall, the price of the horses won averaged just over 3/1, the reads felt inconsistent to me and the number of horses coming second and third inside 4 lengths were far too frequent.

I did find myself being hit by some jockey's that were getting 'more' out of their horses.  Anyone that does speed ratings, take a look at horses and the % plus or minus under some jockey's. There are some that have low winning percentage but can often get an EW horse to perform X percent better and challenge for the line.

And I marked 9 horses that won that literally came to halt after the line (a mentor of mine taught me to watch horses after the line - the insight is sometimes obvious) meaning they just made the running.  They go in the notebook for their next race and if there is a step up in distance or weight or more trying conditions.

And everyone seems to be focusing on 'the lay', perhaps even myself.  As I have said, I use "BFSP" and the success of the play as an 'indicator'.  Those reading the selections, take them on board but look at different angles on using the info. 

If it knocks out a 5/2 and the next three in the betting are 6/1, 7/1 and 9/1 in a ten runner race where two of the runners are 100/1 or higher, look for the dutch or EW dutch.  The return for the risk can be much more substantial.

More later this week including numbers, stats, etc.  Roll on, October.

WEAK FAVES FOR 1-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 8 meetings: 14 for 22 (64%)
Newton Abbot: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)


Bath
3:20 Caterina (Result: 13th of 14)
3:50 The Giving Tree (2nd by 3 L)

Early Price: Caterina 5.20 / The Giving Tree 5.10

Newton Abbot
4:00 Desolait (7th of 11)

Early Price: Desolait 4.60

SUMMARY: A nice start to October with all three 'weak faves' being correct calls.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Newton Abbot
3:00 The Lemonpie EW  (result: 1st BFSP 6.93 / 2.40) +3.60

SUMMARY: The Lemon Pie made the running from the tape going up to the finish without a challenge.


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