SHAPESHIFTER

NFL WEEK 4 SUMMARY

Three of four selections landed on the day returning 20 pts (ROI 50%) 

Two of the outcomes were settled on the last play of the game. 

As per the write-up, the media and pundits all kept mentioning the Vikings 0-11 record and three previous losses against the Lions and too much emphasis was put on this and, for me, created more value in the play.

It was the right move to play Money Line on the Eagles.  The line leading into Sunday was -3.5 on betfair, so the Giants covered that though some firms moved to -2 on Sunday ending with a 'push'.

Both underdog selections were landed.

If there are selections for Thursday, I will post that day.  For Sunday, I will post on Saturday, updating the odds Sunday morning.

I also have a daily blog in HORSE RACING>BLOGS with selecting fave's to avoid and value bets to back.

Comments and views are always welcome.



Each week, I'll focus on finding value bets supported by confident and in depth research.

Here are four for you to consider.


GIANTS AT PHILADEPHIA

Over the first three games of the season, Philadephia have given the opposition the edge by serving up turnovers and interceptions. The Giants are notorious for pressuring the opposing offense to give up the ball so practice and team meetings would have been focused on tightening the screws of their leaky ship.

The Giants are one of the teams to find their line-up being defined by injury more than ability.  The Giants had the edge over Carolina last week and Andre Brown led the way with +100 yards when given the ball and carrying it into the end-zone twice while the team averaged 15 yards every time the ball was thrown to Ramses Barden.

Philadelphia will have to tighten their control of the ball and contain the newcomers to the Giants line-up but with ratings indicating a 66% chance of winning, the home team gets the edge.

PHILADELPHIA 12 pts @ 1.82 (Moneyline) (in from 1.90)

SUMMARY The Giants worked to set themselves up for a last minute field goal but an interference penalty knocked the team back from the posts.  An attempt of a +50 yard field goal was right down the middle.....but short. +9.80

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WASHINGTON AT TAMPA BAY

2012 started the new season with victories, Washington did it on the road against The Saints while Tampa beat the Panthers by six at home.

But after that, they have both gone 0-2 in hard fought, close games. 

Redskins QB Robert Griffin is the rookie to watch and is performing well in all categories, leading QB's in yards rushing including carrying the ball in three times.  As much as this keeps defenses guessing, clutch plays have let the team down.

Tampa's defense has been a wall when it comes to dealing with opposing ground plays allowing less than 150 yards this season.  But their secondary has been letting the most basic of chalk board passing plays gain an average of over 340+ yards a game.

Bringing all the stats and rating h2h and counting on improvements to their passing defense, I give the Buc's a 75% chance at home on Sunday making the money line a value play.

TAMPA 10 pts @ 1.85 (Moneyline)

SUMMARY Tampa went into half time down 21-6 to the visitors.  Despite Tampa having a strong second half, Washington won with a field goal on the last play of the game to win as underdogs 24-22. -10.00

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MINNESOTA AT DETROIT

So the Vikings start the season well and should actually be 3 and 0 if not for a two touchdown comeback to be thwarted by a 53 yard field goal in the last minute of week two.

Meanwhile, Detroit are 1 and 2 with some soft aspects to their team causing havoc to their game plans.

So why are they favourites going into tomorrows game?  Minnesota record against the NFC north: eleven straight losses, three of those against Detroit.

Detroit QB Matthew Stafford was solid last year but has started this season a bit scattered.  Connecting with Johnson has produced gains but only one touchdown. 

Chris Ponder is showing his confidence and took on the '49er last week.  As well, he already has several offensive options that will only improve more with the return of Adrian Peterson.

Two weeks ago, Detroit showed their defense can be penetrated on the ground when they played San Francisco.  Minnesota face a challenge against Safford.

But the past has created a value bet backing the Vikings with split stakes between the money line and the spread.

MINNESOTA  +3.5 4 pts @ 2.06
MINNESOTA 4 pts @ 2.96 (Moneyline) (out from 2.80)

SUMMARY: Despite Detroit QB Matthew Stafford throwing 300+ yards, the Vikings won the first half 13-6 and went on to win 20-13, covering the spread (+3.5) the spread and landing the split bet +12.00 

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CAROLINA AT ATLANTA

The Falcons go into week four with a solid 3-0 season, a confident quarter back and an offense with depth that is dominating the NFC.  With just one interception so far this year, there is not many opportunities to turn the momentum against Atlanta.

Cam Newton had a great 2011 but is trying to find his way into 2012.  But because their rush has lacked any sort of impact this season, he's been turning to the air resulting in added pressure which resulted in five interceptions this season thwarting momentum.

Weighing it out, I think that week four could be the turn-around week for Newton.  It will take some rethinking of their ground attack but he did well last year with his multi-pronged approach from the pocket. 

I have doubts that the Falcon defense can sustain themselves and the game will probably come down to the fourth quarter making Carolina +7.5 a solid bet.

Carolina +7.5 10 pts @1.84

SUMMARY: As thought, the game was settled in the 4th quarter, Atlanta scoring a final seconds field goal to win 30-28.  Carolina covered the spread (+7.5) and the bet was landed.  Stand-out stat of the game: Falcon's QB Ryan sacked seven times. +8.40

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