SHAPESHIFTER

A day where several races have little recent form to go on. 

I will be looking at Kempton later today and will update today's selections then.

WEAK FAVES FOR 24-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Newmarket: 5 meetings: 10 for 12 (83%)

Kempton
Will update later

Early prices:

Newmarket
5:20 Shrewd (result: 1st BFSP 4.35)

Early prices: Shrewd 3.60


SUMMARY Despite drifting, Shrewd won the race.  Post mortem on the call was too much emphasize on last two runs (bad times) rather than July win. 


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Fontwell
3:25 River D'Or EW (Result: 2nd BFSP: 6.40 / 2.25) +0.10
4:30 No No Bingo (1st: BFSP 2.00) +1.00

Newmarket
3:05 Hoarding (1st BFSP: 3.20) +2.20
4:45 Hippy Hippy Shake EW (1st: BFSP 8.40 / 2.34) +4.40

Worcester
2:10 Current Event EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY 4 for 5 pay dividends with only one favourite, No No Bingo, being played. LSP of 5 points would have returned +6.70 (ROI 130%)



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In 2009, I started developing my own ratings for horses. 

As we roll into the autumn, I look back at last year and see that where I had success was when I gave more and more weight to my own views on the field.  I'm also looking forward to combining my latest approach WITH ratings, giving more of a dimension to my selections. 

Some people put a fair amount of weight on the last run.  I tend to cross-reference and select three to four races that I think reflect on the day.  The bonus, always, is when more than one horse in the field have raced at a track.  It allows me to compare their performances.

I also find the best 'representation' of a horses abilities is when it is 2nd or 3rd in a tight finish.  It often means the jockey has pushed all the buttons and tried everything to get the horse up.  I often find that when a horse wins by three or four lengths, it looks great in the form book but often when looking at their other races, that day becomes more of the exception than the rule.

It's a matter of keeping races in context so often good to keep notes, as well. A time of a tightly bunched race with 10 runners will often give a better impression of a horses rating than a clear run with 5 other runners.

As well, reach back over the year, especially when looking EW.  Recent races will often give value to a horse who previously had decent runs over goings and distances.

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I'll be taking another look at Exeter but right now have focused on the two flat meets.

WEAK FAVES FOR 23-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Exeter: no meetings to date
Lingfield: 10 meetings: 18 for 23 (78%)
Yarmouth: 9 meetings: 23 for 26 (88%)

Lingfield
4:00 Auntie Mabel (result: 7th of 10)
5:00 Muhdiq (1st BFSP: 5.25)

Early prices: Auntie Mabel 4.60, Muhdiq 4.50

Yarmouth
1:50 Maid A Million (result: 2nd)

Early prices: Maid A Million 3.30

SUMMARY With three afternoon meetings, I focused on the flats.  2 of 3 were successful, Muhdiq being the exception after drifting to 4/1.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
2:00 Langham Lily (2nd) -1.00
2:30 Tuscan Fun EW (unplaced) -1.00
3:00 David's Secret EW (3rd BFSP: 9.57 / 2.56) +0.30

Yarmouth
4:20 Novalist EW (unplaced) -1.00
5:20 Isingy Red (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY A second day of only one horse paying dividends.  LSP betting of 5 points would return a loss of -3.70

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"He's the best I've ever had.  He's the best I've ever seen.  I'll be very surprised if there will be better"
   - Sir Henry Cecil, trainer of Frankel



SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 15 TO 19 OCTOBER

Weak faves:
17 horses were selected with only 3 winning their races for a strike rate of 82%.

Selections to back
27 selections were made during the week with 11 horses paying dividends for a strike rate of 41%.
LSP would have returned a bit more than +4.00 points at BFSP for an ROI of 15%

Hilites of the week were two EW winner at 12.00 and 13.00 BFSP.

The day that 'almost was': Thursday with four of seven selections coming in second.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 22-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Plumpton: no meetings to date
Pontefract: 4 meetings: 6 for 10 (60%)
Windsor: 2 meetings: 1 for 2 (50%)

Pontefract
3:50 Pearl Reward (result: 7th of 7)

Early prices: Pearl Reward 3.30

Windsor
3:00 Dumbarton Rock (5th of 8)

Early prices: Dumbarton Rock 4.40

SUMMARY With tricky goings for Monday, the decision to make two selections.  Both were successful, both drifting to 2F before the off.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Plumpton
2:40 Croco Mister EW (result: 2nd BFSP: 5.17/2.05) +0.00

Pontefract
4:50 The Trend Is My Friend EW (unplaced) -1.00

Windsor
2:30 Efistorm EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:00 Lieutenant Kojak EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Croco Mister gave the most solid run but finished 2nd to an even longer priced competitor.  The other horses all ran their races well but faded well before the final furlong.  LSP of 4 points would have lost -3.00.


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SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 15 TO 19 OCTOBER

Weak faves:
17 horses were selected with only 3 winning their races for a strike rate of 82%.

Selections to back
27 selections were made during the week with 11 horses paying dividends for a strike rate of 41%.
LSP would have returned a bit more than +4.00 points at BFSP for an ROI of 15%

Hilites of the week were two EW winner at 12.00 and 13.00 BFSP.

The day that 'almost was': Thursday with four of seven selections coming in second.

'Weak faves' is posted Monday to Friday before racing.


WEAK FAVES: 19-OCTOBER

"Seconditus" read the message in my inbox. 

Yep, yesterday was riddled with seconds.  We've had those days before.  They will be there.

I don't get frustrated over them.  To me, it says that the reads and interpretations of the ratings were close.  Six of the seven gave me a 'run for the money', the exception being Notabotheronme who, after a couple of jumps, was landing heavily and jarring any chance of staying with the pace.

I'll be posting more and more selections for the jumps and chases.  I've been taking notes on performances the past three weeks but the only way to take on the 'transition' is to go in there with some conviction.

A matter of being selective while weighing out the risk of the entire day and, in the case of a Friday, not spoiling a decent week.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 19-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Will post shortly

Cheltenham
3:20 Heaney (result: 3rd)

Early prices: Heaney 5.00

Haydock
4:10 Dr Phibes (2nd)
5:20 New Youmzain (3rd of 5)

Early prices: Dr Phibes 3.80 / New Youmzain 2.70

Wolverhampton
5:50 Above Standard (1st BFSP 4.17)

Early Price: 4.70

SUMMARY All four plays remained favourite, Above Standard being supported into 4.20 and producing the days only unsuccessful call.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Fakenham
12:30 Sentimentaljourney (4th) -1.00
1:30 Aghill EW (6th) -1.00
2:05 Jawhary (pulled up) -1.00

Haydock
4:45 Tiger Reigns EW (11th) -1.00

Wolverhampton
7:50 Neige D'antan (1st: BFSP 2.30) +1.30
8:50 Lindoro EW (5th) -1.00
9:20 Lietenant Dan* EW (3rd BFSP:6.60/3.54) +0.70
(*posted 8:30)

SUMMARY No success at Fakenham and Haydock in the afternoon. Wolverhampton, a winner and an EW paying dividends returned a 33% ROI on the evening card.  Overall, betting LSP would have returned a loss of -3.00


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Being Thursday night, I am still looking over the weekend but I'm already more comfortable with my reads than I was last weekend.

I've mentioned on my other blog posts in the Horse Racing forum that, for me, success is built around momentum.  And, for me, momentum is created by having solid information to dive into in pursuit of some solid, value bets.  And that's how this week's football feels for me.

I'll ease into week 7 with the Thursday night game and will be back on Saturday with calls for Sunday's football.


GREEN BAY AT ST LOUIS


Green Bay were hailed the team of week 6 for beating 5-0 Houston. 

And, historically, the Packers have dominated this match up but The Rams are much improved team this year and playing better than their .500 record.  They have a 3-0 record at home beating middle quality teams Arizona, Washington and Seattle.

But this win over Houston was compiled with 6 touch down tosses by Aaron Rodgers and I can't see the same thing happening this week.  On viewing the hilites, half those touch downs came with the pocket protected and giving Rodgers more than enough time.  I see the Rams defense being more effective and should be able to create pressure on last week's hero.

But Green Bay have two losses on the road and come into this week with some reported injuries that will make a difference:

D.J. Smith is now out for the season and reports say Nick Perry won't be facing the Rams.

The Rams had some impressive stats in their loss against Miami last week: They produced a season-high 462 yards 162 rushing but couldn't convert it into points.

I'll split my stake between the money-line and St Louis covering the +6.5 spread at home.

St Louis 6 points @ 2.96 (money line)
St Louis 6 points @ 1.82 (+6.5)

Other plays for Sunday

No time for write-ups due to time this weekend.  Here are the picks:

New Orleans at Tampa
Tampa 10 pts @ 2.10 (money line)


Jacksonville at Oakland
Oakland 10 pts @ 2.02 (-6.50 points spread)


SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO (Thursday)

The Seahawks roll into following their 24-23 win over New England.  This game was at home and was won in the last quarter taking a 45 yard gain when Wilson connected with Rice.  It was not a win built on a solid performance for the sixty minutes. 

Overall, New England dominated the game, the key stat being 26-17 New England for first downs.

And though Seattle have one of the best defenses, this is the first solid team they are facing on the road this year, their previous opponents being Carolina, St Louis and Arizona where they have produced a 1-2 record.

San Francisco will most likely focus on containing the ground game.  Seattle's QB Russell Wilson does have the ability to buy time in the pocket by scrambling but the 49er's secondary will be ready for this and will hopefully anticipate any escape plans.

There isn't a lot to say about San Francisco after their 26-3 smashing at the hands of the Giants last week.  I backed the 49er's last week.  Despite the loss, my ratings on the team remain strong so, for me, I can see the team returning to their 4-1 form they had leading into last week's game.

No value in the money line.  I have 24 points minimum for the 49er's making the over 37.5 one play.

I'll split my stake and play the home team to lead at half time and the final whistle.

SEA/SF 4 points @ 2.00 OVER 37.5
HT/FT 4 points @ 1.75 San Francisco/San Francisco (in from 1.80)

Wednesday was a day where going over what you did right the day before lead to more positives.

I also took to heart more of what I had posted earlier which is if you find a weak fave, it doesn't necessarily mean the best profit is taking on the horse.  Rather, it is more the 'traditional approach' of putting a line through the fave and looking elsewhere.

Leading up to the 5:20, I watched Danzoe drift heavily in the market while others held steady.  I kept looking at my notes and my ratings trying to figure out where I had gone wrong on my read but couldn't find the glaring number to turn me off the horse.

It was also frustrating since I had put a fair amount of time into the race.  Normally I'll 'microscope' three or four once I narrowed it down.  But for that race, with doubts on the fave that was priced 4/1 + to lay, I saw potential for an each way play so went over seven horses and 25 races they were in. 

So the drift made me think that the effort had been all a waste.

But the opposite happened.  Danzoe won after holding a steady, confident pace through the race and finding extra to catch Fama Mac at the line.

Yes, drifters win.  The horses don't know the odds.  And based on a positive day of solid selections to back, which once again supports the theory that you get stronger returns based on how much you put into your selections. 

The case of yesterday, it's a return on back selections of +150% on the day and a second ew winner at 12/1 in two days.

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The past three days has also shown an 'evolution' to the blog. 

In the beginning, I kept saying that the 'selections to back' were a "work in progress".  It was a matter of adapting my approach of finding 'weak faves' to taking it the next step and find the horses that showed promise in the race.

Also, making an EW selection doesn't necessarily mean that the 'early priced fave' is a lay.  It could mean that the there isn't enough support to lay it but enough to doubt the upcoming performance and look elsewhere in the field. Or, simply at 4/1 plus, the fave isn't a value lay.

As I said before, it's about looking at the information and reads you have on an event and making the most out of it.


WEAK FAVES FOR 18-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Uttoxeter: 1 meeting: 0 for 2
Wincanton: No meetings to date
Wolverhampton: 11 meetings: 22 for 25 (88%)



Uttoxeter
4:40 Lukeys Luck (2nd by 12 lengths)

Early Price: Lukeys Luck 2.90

Wolverhampton
3:30 Ela Gonda Mou (8th of 13)

Early Price: Ela Gonda Mou 4.30

SUMMARY Both lays landed.  Lukey's Luck competed with 2F Swift Arrow which, combined with the going, lead to a fade to a 12 length loss.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Uttoxeter
2:10 Right To Rule (result: 2nd) -1.00
3:10 Notabotheronme (PU) -1.00 

Wincanton
3:50 Allerton (2nd) -1.00
4:50 Mighty Monty EW (4th) +0.40

Wolverhampton
4:00 Outlaw Torn EW (3rd: BFSP ) +0.50
4:30 Pravda Street (2nd) -1.00
5:35 Irie Ute EW (2nd BFSP: ) +0.20

SUMMARY Seven selections on the day finishing with four 2nds and all the EW plays paying place dividends.  An LSP wager of 7 points would have returned a loss of -3.00


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I've always taken the view that 90% of the time, a horse must run a 'perfect race' to win.

I've watched UK racing for a decade now and it has evolved that there is little leeway, the jockey's and trainers have upped their game with strategy, the horses more responsive to the instructions from the pilot.

Yesterday, watching the 2:50, it became apparent that Another Trump was running a 'perfect race' and that the jockey, AP McCoy, was focused with the task at hand. 

Each bend they passed around, he cut perfectly without putting Another Trump under pressure to hold the line.  Each undulation, he timed perfectly, the horse moving effortlessly.

And while the market saw the horse dropping back as a sign of defeat, the in-running drifting out to 14+, I saw it as a breather and a chance to give Another Trump space to run its own race.

Then, sure enough, the timing to the end and the horse hit the line first.

A handful of jockey's get 'more' out of horses I deem 'weak faves'.  AP McCoy is one of them.

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I looked like I was jumping on 'Richard Hughes fever' yesterday but did go with two I thought would run well, landing 1 for 2.  My Queenie was a disappointment but something that is often true with strong horses is they run at their best in the big races, often challenged by the pace and lines held in lesser races.

I was really happy with the selection of Genstone Trail that won at BFSP 11/1 at Huntingdon.  With doubts on Victor Echo, I saw the potential to find a value EW play in the market rather than lay the fave that eventually went off at 3.00. 

To find EW value, I reach farther back through a horses performances and find two or three that I think were solid examples of how the horse could run.  If you look at results that are recent, you'll sometimes find the 'reason' the horse is at longer odds but it doesn't necessarily represent the 'potential performance'.

With only three previous runs this year, I focused on the rating at February at Taunton. I had Genstone Trail almost half a second faster per furlong than the bulk of the field. 

Genstone Trail ran within 15% of that pace and won by 3 lengths.

Someone once told me that when using your ratings, you need to take ALL races into account.  I disagree.  REGARDLESS of where they finish, you need to find the ratings that show the horses potential with the conditions on the day.

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Rule number 1 for me is that you need to be 100% focused and without distractions when reading through form and ratings.

I'm trying to take on the evening cards, but all it takes is the combination of a late train bringing Mrs Shapeshifter home and energetic children high off their day to create 'background noise' that makes it impossible to make a final decision with confidence.

Despite notes from the day before and morning, there was too much going on below my loft space.  This is the case of most evenings so if the posts don't appear for evening races, know it's because the 'final checklist' has been side-tracked by family life.


WEAK FAVES FOR 17-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Lingfield: 9 meetings: 17 for 21 (88%)
Nottingham: 2 meetings: 3 for 3 (100%)
Wetherby: No meetings to date

Kempton
I will be back to look at latter races.

Lingfield
2:00 Tarbawi (result: 2nd by a head)
4:40 Marmas (1st BFSP 3.25)

Early prices: Tarbawi 4.00

Nottingham
3:45 Attenshun (5th of 6)

Early prices: Attenshun 4.10

SUMMARY 2 for 3 on the day with Marmas winning under pressure from the EW selections on the race, Squad.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
6:10 Illustrious Lad EW (2nd BFSP 5.40 / 2.00) +0.00
(posted 6:01)

Lingfield
3:00 Anciano EW (withdrawn at the start - went fave by the off) No bet
4:40 Squad EW (2nd BFSP: 8.62 /  2.75) +0.35

Nottingham
5:20 Danzoe EW (1st BFSP 13.03 / 3.47) +7.20

Wetherby
2:20 Don't Take Me Alive (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Another day with dividends. All three EW's gave returns including Danzoe winning after drifting to 13.00 BFSP.  LSP with 4 points wagered would return +6.50 (160% ROI)



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What a difference a year can make.

Last October, racing was all over the newspapers because of the 'whip rules'.  Infact, Richard Hughes refused to race at one point until it was readdressed.

Flash forward to 2012 and the back page has pictures and positive headlines.

As Richard Hughes hit number 3 on Embankment, I kept looking at my selection of Duke Of Clarence.  As he battled Links Drive Lady to the front, I wondered if my selection would be 'number seven' on the day.

A race later, it was relegated to possibly being number 6.  Then, I laughed, imagining he's landed 5 and I backed one of two that don't hit the line first.

But he did land it after a head to head battle with Sheila's Buddy, my chose being the tightest winning margin of the day but paying the same.

I already had word that he was riding Mama Quilla but didn't even have a punt.  I'd landed 5 for 5 with the faves and decided just to sit back and watch the race and enjoy the moment without having an interest.  I do that a lot, often deciding to become an enthusiastic spectator, leaving the 'punter' in the other room.


WEAK FAVES FOR 16-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Huntingdon: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)
Leicester: 5 meetings: 10 for 11 (91%)
Wolverhampton: 11 meetings: 22 for 25 (88%)

Huntingdon
2:50 Another Trump (1st BFSP 5.40)

Early prices: Another Trump 4.90

Leicester
4:10 Bernisdale (3rd of 5)
5:40 Significant Move (3rd)

Early prices: Bernisdale 2.54 / Significant Move 5.0

SUMMARY 2 for 3 on the day, an excellent ride by A.P. McCoy bringing Another Trump home first.  2 for 2 at Leicester maintaining a solid strike rate at the track.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Huntingdon
4:20 Genstone Trail EW (1st BFSP 12.00/2.20) +6.10

Leicester
2:40 Tunnager Grove (1st BFSP 2.10) +1.10
3:40 My Queenie (6th of 7) -1.00
5:40 Skyfire EW (4th) -1.00

Wolverhampton
5:50 Loyal n Trusted EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY 2 for 5 horses winning including Genstone Trail winning by 3 lengths at 11/1. An LSP wager of 5 points would return a profit of +4.20 (84%)


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I found last week difficult as I sat reading form on jump horses that were returning after a summer of training and flat horses being given one last run before either going all weather or a winter away from the track.

I'm someone that also gets success from momentum.  Even a day with mediocre results can lead to a streak in coming days if the reading and racing is at least fulfilling.

Bath summed up the week of attempting to have a 'critical eye' of hiliting fave's that I felt wouldn't make the trip.  I totally misread how the two selections would run.  I didn't think that early stamina would be as positive to carry through the full distance over the testing ground.  Instead, once in front, both selections dictated and won easily.

The positive through the week was with the selections to back.  8 of 17 paid dividends and when reviewing the 9 that didn't, if it involved a mis-read, it was clear and noted for the future.

A 47% strike rate returned almost 8 points on 17 wagered.  So the combination of selective and value returned a positive result over the five days. 



WEAK FAVES FOR 15-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Musselburgh: 5 meetings: 8 for 12 (67%)
Salisbury: 4 meetings: 2 for 4 (50%)
Windsor: 1 meeting: 0 for 1 (0%)

Musselburgh
1:40 Future Wonder (10th of 14)
2:40 Xilerator (8th of 12)
4:20 Oil Strike (3rd)
Early prices: Future Wonder 3.90 / Xilerator 4.80 / Oil Strike 5.50 

Salisbury
2:50 George Thisby (6th of 12)

Early prices: George Thisby 4.50

Windsor
4:40 Lutine Charlie (8th of 8)

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Early Price: Lutine Charlie 3.40

SUMMARY a clean sheet on Monday, four out of five unplaced with Oil Strike the only horse to make the frame

 

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Musselburgh
3:15 Los Nadis (6th) -1.00
(update: 3:05 / was available EW at 6.00 / 2.32)

Salisbury
5:00 Suzis A Class Act EW (unplaced) -1.00

Windsor
3:35 Cardinal EW (7th) -1.00
5:10 Duke Of Clarence (1st BFSP 3.20) +2.20


SUMMARY Only 1 for 4 horses paying dividends, Duke Of Clarence, the 6th of Richard Hughes' seven winners, winning at 2/1.  4 pts wagered at LSP would have returned a loss of -0.80

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NFL SELECTIONS ARE UP

If you are taking on the NFL this Sunday, I have selections up now:

Go to:
NORTH AMERICA>BLOGS>SHAPESHIFTER VALUE RATED BETS: NFL WK 6


SUMMARY: 8 to 12 October

A second week of easing into the jumps.  Overall, though, taking on the fave's had no momentum through the week with a strike rate of 9 for 16 (56%), the week ending with a total mis-read on how the horses would run at Bath.

Though, in hindsight, a couple of bad calls, selections to back returned steady profits as 8 of 17 (47%) returned dividends for +7.90 when calculated against LSP (46% ROI).



WEAK FAVES: 12-OCTOBER

The 'writer' has taken the day off.

A few selections for the afternoon and will be back this evening for Wolverhampton.


WEAK FAVES FOR 12-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 9 meetings: 16 for 24 (67%)
York: 4 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)

Bath
1:00 Wannabe Loved (1st BFSP 6.10)
1:30 Little Rocky (1st BFSP 3.22)

Early prices: Wannabe Loved 3.40 / Little Rocky 3.05

Carlisle
3:55 Rain Mac (2nd by 26 lengths) *drifted from 3/1 to 7/1 at the off

Early prices: Rain Mac 3.85

York
3:40 Anderton (2nd by 1 1/4 lengths)

Early Price: Anderton 4.10

SUMMARY A terrible read of how Bath races would unfold lead to 0 for 2 at the track.  Both horse took control of the pace and the ground worked to their benefit. 

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Bath
12:30 Lovage (Result 3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one selection on Friday that failed the trip.  Gladiatrix won a fourth in a row, conditions on the day shying me away from the play. Despite finishing the week with an unsuccessful selection, 8 for 17 calls (47%) returned dividends.  The LSP on the week would be 17 points returning 7.90 for an ROI of 47%


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