SHAPESHIFTER

"He's the best I've ever had.  He's the best I've ever seen.  I'll be very surprised if there will be better"
   - Sir Henry Cecil, trainer of Frankel



SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 15 TO 19 OCTOBER

Weak faves:
17 horses were selected with only 3 winning their races for a strike rate of 82%.

Selections to back
27 selections were made during the week with 11 horses paying dividends for a strike rate of 41%.
LSP would have returned a bit more than +4.00 points at BFSP for an ROI of 15%

Hilites of the week were two EW winner at 12.00 and 13.00 BFSP.

The day that 'almost was': Thursday with four of seven selections coming in second.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 22-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Plumpton: no meetings to date
Pontefract: 4 meetings: 6 for 10 (60%)
Windsor: 2 meetings: 1 for 2 (50%)

Pontefract
3:50 Pearl Reward (result: 7th of 7)

Early prices: Pearl Reward 3.30

Windsor
3:00 Dumbarton Rock (5th of 8)

Early prices: Dumbarton Rock 4.40

SUMMARY With tricky goings for Monday, the decision to make two selections.  Both were successful, both drifting to 2F before the off.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Plumpton
2:40 Croco Mister EW (result: 2nd BFSP: 5.17/2.05) +0.00

Pontefract
4:50 The Trend Is My Friend EW (unplaced) -1.00

Windsor
2:30 Efistorm EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:00 Lieutenant Kojak EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Croco Mister gave the most solid run but finished 2nd to an even longer priced competitor.  The other horses all ran their races well but faded well before the final furlong.  LSP of 4 points would have lost -3.00.


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