SHAPESHIFTER

Wednesday was a day where going over what you did right the day before lead to more positives.

I also took to heart more of what I had posted earlier which is if you find a weak fave, it doesn't necessarily mean the best profit is taking on the horse.  Rather, it is more the 'traditional approach' of putting a line through the fave and looking elsewhere.

Leading up to the 5:20, I watched Danzoe drift heavily in the market while others held steady.  I kept looking at my notes and my ratings trying to figure out where I had gone wrong on my read but couldn't find the glaring number to turn me off the horse.

It was also frustrating since I had put a fair amount of time into the race.  Normally I'll 'microscope' three or four once I narrowed it down.  But for that race, with doubts on the fave that was priced 4/1 + to lay, I saw potential for an each way play so went over seven horses and 25 races they were in. 

So the drift made me think that the effort had been all a waste.

But the opposite happened.  Danzoe won after holding a steady, confident pace through the race and finding extra to catch Fama Mac at the line.

Yes, drifters win.  The horses don't know the odds.  And based on a positive day of solid selections to back, which once again supports the theory that you get stronger returns based on how much you put into your selections. 

The case of yesterday, it's a return on back selections of +150% on the day and a second ew winner at 12/1 in two days.

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The past three days has also shown an 'evolution' to the blog. 

In the beginning, I kept saying that the 'selections to back' were a "work in progress".  It was a matter of adapting my approach of finding 'weak faves' to taking it the next step and find the horses that showed promise in the race.

Also, making an EW selection doesn't necessarily mean that the 'early priced fave' is a lay.  It could mean that the there isn't enough support to lay it but enough to doubt the upcoming performance and look elsewhere in the field. Or, simply at 4/1 plus, the fave isn't a value lay.

As I said before, it's about looking at the information and reads you have on an event and making the most out of it.


WEAK FAVES FOR 18-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Uttoxeter: 1 meeting: 0 for 2
Wincanton: No meetings to date
Wolverhampton: 11 meetings: 22 for 25 (88%)



Uttoxeter
4:40 Lukeys Luck (2nd by 12 lengths)

Early Price: Lukeys Luck 2.90

Wolverhampton
3:30 Ela Gonda Mou (8th of 13)

Early Price: Ela Gonda Mou 4.30

SUMMARY Both lays landed.  Lukey's Luck competed with 2F Swift Arrow which, combined with the going, lead to a fade to a 12 length loss.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Uttoxeter
2:10 Right To Rule (result: 2nd) -1.00
3:10 Notabotheronme (PU) -1.00 

Wincanton
3:50 Allerton (2nd) -1.00
4:50 Mighty Monty EW (4th) +0.40

Wolverhampton
4:00 Outlaw Torn EW (3rd: BFSP ) +0.50
4:30 Pravda Street (2nd) -1.00
5:35 Irie Ute EW (2nd BFSP: ) +0.20

SUMMARY Seven selections on the day finishing with four 2nds and all the EW plays paying place dividends.  An LSP wager of 7 points would have returned a loss of -3.00


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