SHAPESHIFTER

In 2009, I started developing my own ratings for horses. 

As we roll into the autumn, I look back at last year and see that where I had success was when I gave more and more weight to my own views on the field.  I'm also looking forward to combining my latest approach WITH ratings, giving more of a dimension to my selections. 

Some people put a fair amount of weight on the last run.  I tend to cross-reference and select three to four races that I think reflect on the day.  The bonus, always, is when more than one horse in the field have raced at a track.  It allows me to compare their performances.

I also find the best 'representation' of a horses abilities is when it is 2nd or 3rd in a tight finish.  It often means the jockey has pushed all the buttons and tried everything to get the horse up.  I often find that when a horse wins by three or four lengths, it looks great in the form book but often when looking at their other races, that day becomes more of the exception than the rule.

It's a matter of keeping races in context so often good to keep notes, as well. A time of a tightly bunched race with 10 runners will often give a better impression of a horses rating than a clear run with 5 other runners.

As well, reach back over the year, especially when looking EW.  Recent races will often give value to a horse who previously had decent runs over goings and distances.

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I'll be taking another look at Exeter but right now have focused on the two flat meets.

WEAK FAVES FOR 23-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Exeter: no meetings to date
Lingfield: 10 meetings: 18 for 23 (78%)
Yarmouth: 9 meetings: 23 for 26 (88%)

Lingfield
4:00 Auntie Mabel (result: 7th of 10)
5:00 Muhdiq (1st BFSP: 5.25)

Early prices: Auntie Mabel 4.60, Muhdiq 4.50

Yarmouth
1:50 Maid A Million (result: 2nd)

Early prices: Maid A Million 3.30

SUMMARY With three afternoon meetings, I focused on the flats.  2 of 3 were successful, Muhdiq being the exception after drifting to 4/1.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
2:00 Langham Lily (2nd) -1.00
2:30 Tuscan Fun EW (unplaced) -1.00
3:00 David's Secret EW (3rd BFSP: 9.57 / 2.56) +0.30

Yarmouth
4:20 Novalist EW (unplaced) -1.00
5:20 Isingy Red (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY A second day of only one horse paying dividends.  LSP betting of 5 points would return a loss of -3.70

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