SHAPESHIFTER

SUMMARY FOR THE WEEK OF 15 TO 19 OCTOBER

Weak faves:
17 horses were selected with only 3 winning their races for a strike rate of 82%.

Selections to back
27 selections were made during the week with 11 horses paying dividends for a strike rate of 41%.
LSP would have returned a bit more than +4.00 points at BFSP for an ROI of 15%

Hilites of the week were two EW winner at 12.00 and 13.00 BFSP.

The day that 'almost was': Thursday with four of seven selections coming in second.

'Weak faves' is posted Monday to Friday before racing.


WEAK FAVES: 19-OCTOBER

"Seconditus" read the message in my inbox. 

Yep, yesterday was riddled with seconds.  We've had those days before.  They will be there.

I don't get frustrated over them.  To me, it says that the reads and interpretations of the ratings were close.  Six of the seven gave me a 'run for the money', the exception being Notabotheronme who, after a couple of jumps, was landing heavily and jarring any chance of staying with the pace.

I'll be posting more and more selections for the jumps and chases.  I've been taking notes on performances the past three weeks but the only way to take on the 'transition' is to go in there with some conviction.

A matter of being selective while weighing out the risk of the entire day and, in the case of a Friday, not spoiling a decent week.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 19-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Will post shortly

Cheltenham
3:20 Heaney (result: 3rd)

Early prices: Heaney 5.00

Haydock
4:10 Dr Phibes (2nd)
5:20 New Youmzain (3rd of 5)

Early prices: Dr Phibes 3.80 / New Youmzain 2.70

Wolverhampton
5:50 Above Standard (1st BFSP 4.17)

Early Price: 4.70

SUMMARY All four plays remained favourite, Above Standard being supported into 4.20 and producing the days only unsuccessful call.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Fakenham
12:30 Sentimentaljourney (4th) -1.00
1:30 Aghill EW (6th) -1.00
2:05 Jawhary (pulled up) -1.00

Haydock
4:45 Tiger Reigns EW (11th) -1.00

Wolverhampton
7:50 Neige D'antan (1st: BFSP 2.30) +1.30
8:50 Lindoro EW (5th) -1.00
9:20 Lietenant Dan* EW (3rd BFSP:6.60/3.54) +0.70
(*posted 8:30)

SUMMARY No success at Fakenham and Haydock in the afternoon. Wolverhampton, a winner and an EW paying dividends returned a 33% ROI on the evening card.  Overall, betting LSP would have returned a loss of -3.00


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