SHAPESHIFTER

Being Thursday night, I am still looking over the weekend but I'm already more comfortable with my reads than I was last weekend.

I've mentioned on my other blog posts in the Horse Racing forum that, for me, success is built around momentum.  And, for me, momentum is created by having solid information to dive into in pursuit of some solid, value bets.  And that's how this week's football feels for me.

I'll ease into week 7 with the Thursday night game and will be back on Saturday with calls for Sunday's football.


GREEN BAY AT ST LOUIS


Green Bay were hailed the team of week 6 for beating 5-0 Houston. 

And, historically, the Packers have dominated this match up but The Rams are much improved team this year and playing better than their .500 record.  They have a 3-0 record at home beating middle quality teams Arizona, Washington and Seattle.

But this win over Houston was compiled with 6 touch down tosses by Aaron Rodgers and I can't see the same thing happening this week.  On viewing the hilites, half those touch downs came with the pocket protected and giving Rodgers more than enough time.  I see the Rams defense being more effective and should be able to create pressure on last week's hero.

But Green Bay have two losses on the road and come into this week with some reported injuries that will make a difference:

D.J. Smith is now out for the season and reports say Nick Perry won't be facing the Rams.

The Rams had some impressive stats in their loss against Miami last week: They produced a season-high 462 yards 162 rushing but couldn't convert it into points.

I'll split my stake between the money-line and St Louis covering the +6.5 spread at home.

St Louis 6 points @ 2.96 (money line)
St Louis 6 points @ 1.82 (+6.5)

Other plays for Sunday

No time for write-ups due to time this weekend.  Here are the picks:

New Orleans at Tampa
Tampa 10 pts @ 2.10 (money line)


Jacksonville at Oakland
Oakland 10 pts @ 2.02 (-6.50 points spread)


SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO (Thursday)

The Seahawks roll into following their 24-23 win over New England.  This game was at home and was won in the last quarter taking a 45 yard gain when Wilson connected with Rice.  It was not a win built on a solid performance for the sixty minutes. 

Overall, New England dominated the game, the key stat being 26-17 New England for first downs.

And though Seattle have one of the best defenses, this is the first solid team they are facing on the road this year, their previous opponents being Carolina, St Louis and Arizona where they have produced a 1-2 record.

San Francisco will most likely focus on containing the ground game.  Seattle's QB Russell Wilson does have the ability to buy time in the pocket by scrambling but the 49er's secondary will be ready for this and will hopefully anticipate any escape plans.

There isn't a lot to say about San Francisco after their 26-3 smashing at the hands of the Giants last week.  I backed the 49er's last week.  Despite the loss, my ratings on the team remain strong so, for me, I can see the team returning to their 4-1 form they had leading into last week's game.

No value in the money line.  I have 24 points minimum for the 49er's making the over 37.5 one play.

I'll split my stake and play the home team to lead at half time and the final whistle.

SEA/SF 4 points @ 2.00 OVER 37.5
HT/FT 4 points @ 1.75 San Francisco/San Francisco (in from 1.80)