SHAPESHIFTER

After a break, I was back at the screens for Monday landing 4 for 5 calls correctly.

Wolverhampton maintained a 100% strike rate over seven meetings.  The other positive signal that I can read the track is that of the other five races I passed on, three won. 

Ffos Las was one for two and despite having early success with my approach, I'm finding that form and performance translates differently at the track.

The high point of the day was the 6:00 and Chambles.  I avoid reading too much media before making my selections and after posting for the day, I found that the Alan Mccabe horse had been selected by several of the newspapers, blogs and on twitter.  I haven't had a chance to see the replay yet, the first day of the week finished with the Chambles eight lengths behind the eventual winner.


Though this has evolved into a 'list to lay', it wasn't the intention from the outset.  It was more to identify early priced fave's that I thought would not run well.  Usually when laying, you need to find the two or three to support the call which is something I don't bring into the equation.  And though the strike rate justifies the risk to lay, my list was intended more to put a 'line through the horse' then look for the EW value play in the race which would be less risky and possibly improve the ROI (return on investment).

I've also started listing horses that I feel are solid backs.  Essentially, it means when I am looking at their performance and the quality of the field, I can see that their form is strong and that 'no boxes were ticked' to indicate that they shouldn't be favorites for the race.  For the each-way, I've either found one that I think will run better than the 'weak fave' or I have found a race where several horses at longer odds have a chance and it is worth doing a read to find a value EW play.

But I would be careful about simply following any of the backs or ew's since I haven't any long-term stats to support if it is profitable.  And, more importantly, a matter of judging if the calls are value.  For example, yesterday, I mentioned Al's Memory as an each way play.  At 11 AM, the horse was 7.4.  By 1, it was 6.2 and at the off, co-fave at 3/1.  So despite finishing 2nd to the 6F, I wouldn't have considered it a value EW play at 4.36.

WEAK FAVES FOR 4-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Goodwood: 2 meetings: 5 for 5 (100%)
Leicester: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%)
Musselburgh: 3 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)

GOODWOOD
2:55 Cushion (Result: 3rd)
6:20 Swift Blade (1st: BFSP 5.05)

LEICESTER
2:00 Jamesbos Girl (2nd / hd)
4:15 Ukrainian (10th of 10)
4:50 Crown Counsel (3rd / 1L)

MUSSELBURGH
3:15 Centrifugal (1st BFSP 2.39)
3:50 Ingleby Symphony (4th of 9)
4:25 Tiger Webb (4th of 10)
5:00 Sweet Fairnando (7th of 10)


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Goodwood
3:30 Normal Equilibrium.  Should be able to handle the distance with weight (Result: 3rd)
4:05 Steeler: Has seen solid competition on every race but with race now down to five runners, the value is a bit skinny (Result: won at BFSP 1.56)

Leicester
2:30 First Class EW. Steady performer with Silvestre De Sousa on board for the first time and ground to suit.  10/1 at 12:30 (Result: started well but quickly became one paced and outperformed finishing 15 lengths behind the eventual winner)

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I was pleased with August.  The strike rate was within one race of 80% which was achieved in July.

I found it a challenging month with conditions changing from day-to-day but after the unpredictable weather of May and June, there was finally a steady stream of form to read, especially with the two and three year olds.

I also had some selections from the hurdles and chase cards after relying almost solely on the flat.  Last year, my speed ratings were pretty consistent with the all weather but I'm hoping to incorporate my approach to finding 'weak faves' into jumps and hurdles as well. 

August finished on a real high with confidence building from Monday when I had thirteen selections over seven tracks, ten which were correct.  On Tuesday, I chose six with clarity, landing five.  And Wednesday, it all came together finding nine selections at three of the days meetings with all nine being correct calls.

For me, the 'confidence builder' that I continue down the right path with my approach is that of the nine selections on Wednesday, eight remained favorite at SP, the exception drifting just slightly into the 2F slot. 

As well, the strike rate for the week was 86% (24 for 28) which supported my view to remain focused on your approach through the small gains and losses since the "streaks" will come together.

Roll on, September

AUGUST STATS
134 selections
106 successful
79%
AVE BFSP of 28 selections that won: 3.90

UNPLACED
62
47%


WEAK FAVES FOR 3-SEPTEMBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ffos Las: 4 meeting: 6 for 8 (75%)
Wolverhampton: 6 meetings: 15 for 15 (100%)

FFOS LAS
3:20 Red Avalanche (Result: 3rd)
4:50 Fillionaire (1st BFSP 4.03)

WOLVERHAMPTON
4:30 Grandorio (2nd)
5:30 Conry (3rd)
6:00 Chambles (5th of 8)

SUMMARY: Wolverhampton continues to have a 100% track record.  Four of the five selections on the day placed.


Stand-out recommendations of early faves to back:

Wolverhampton
5:00 Green To Gold RESULT: ran well but faded

EW Selection:
5:30 Al's Memory Went 1.17 in-running but finished 2nd by a head to 6F, The Happy Hammer. Price moved in all day from 7.0 (6/1) at 1PM to an BFSP of 4.3


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I will be taking a break till next week.

So that ends August:

Stats for 'weak faves':

AUGUST
134 selections
106 successful
79%

UNPLACED
62
47%

Tuesday afternoon was a boost.  Monday had been an 'overload' of racing where I had thirteen selections over all the cards, landing ten correctly.

Despite being slightly woggle-eyed from the bank holiday bombardment, I felt fresh to take on Tuesday's racing.

Two of the afternoon lays were reassuring that my approach on finding 'weak faves' was going in the right direction. 

Signor Sassi had dominated the betting and moved into 9/4 at the off with the next best being 7/1.  It had been roughly the same line in the morning and when you see a spread between the fave and the rest of the field, you can imagine punters following the 'sign post' without actually knowing where they were going.  Signor Sassi eventtually came in second when the 'extra' that was asked of the horse wasn't in the engine.

Which leads into the next selection, Stand For Glory, that went off in a 5 furlong, 4 runner race at 4/6. 

Often these races are a 'bookies' dream.  The punter will see the fave, just three other runners and perceive this as 'no competition'.  But I saw it as a fave that hadn't taken on a strong field.

And the race panned out exactly as I read it.  The slightest undulations and give in the Ripon course seemed to affect Stand For Glory and the horse laboured to keep up with the early leader becoming one-paced as the race progressed.


The market can be intimidating and can often sway you away from taking on a horse.  It can also make you steer away from a horse you want to back when you find it is 17/1 in the market with the money going elsewhere.

It comes down to the psychology and mind-set that you have more confidence in your views than the market does.   

WEAK FAVES FOR 29-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Carlisle: 1 meeting: 2 for 6 (33%) *meeting in June
Catterick Bridge: 5 meetings: 7 for 11 (64%)
Worcester: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)


CARLISLE
3:30 Samarkand (result: 5th of 7)
4:00 Hydrant (4th of 10)

CATTERICK BRIDGE
3:40 Idler (8th of 9)
4:10 Llewellyn (4th of 10)
5:45 On The High Tops (3rd)

WORCESTER
2:20 Nodforms Violet (2nd/nk)
4:20 Trendelenburg (2nd/3L)
4:50 Round Tom (2nd/7L)
5:20 Latest Trend (4th of 8)

After reviewing the races and runners, there are some plenty of races with strong EW potential at Catterick and Worcester.  The 'stand out' ones for me:

Catterick 3:40 (result: won by industry SP 3F)
Worcester: 4:50 and 5:20 (result: 2F beat my weak fave in the 4:20) (5:20 winner was 17.0 BFSP)

Stand-out recommendation to back:
Carlisle: 4:30 Oddysey (result: 3rd of 5...reached 1.72 in running)




SUMMARY: a clean sheet day with nine for nine favorites.  Of the nine horses that were early fave's, eight remained favourites at SP, the exception being Nodforms Violet which went off at 3/1.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 28-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Epsom: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
Ripon: 3 meetings: 4 for 6 (67%)
Sedgefield: no meetings to date
Southwell: 3 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)

EPSOM
2:50 Signor Sassi (result: 2nd)
3:55 Mayo Lad (6th of 9)

RIPON
3:40 Stand Of Glory (3rd of 4)

SEDGEFIELD (added 4:23PM)
4:40 Flying Doctor (1st BFSP 3.93)
6:10 Venture To War (9th of 12)

SOUTHWELL (added 4:23PM)
6:20 Three White Socks (5th of 8)

RESULTS: 5 for 6 on the day.  Two stand-out 'weak faves': Signor Sassi who dominated the betting at 9/4, the next best being 7/1.  And Stand For Glory who went off in a 5f/4 runner race at 4/6 and finished behind two other runners.

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Stats for August:

24 for 29 (83%)
August to date: 82/106 (77%)


WEAK FAVES FOR 27-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bangor: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%) 
Chepstow: no meetings to date
Epsom: 1 meeting: 2 for 3 (67%)
Huntingdon: no meetings to date
Newcastle: 3 meetings: 3 for 4 (75%)
Ripon: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
Warwick: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)


BANGOR
2:50 Clarion Call (Result: 2nd)
3:25 Mr Tingle (1st 3.70 BFSP)

CHEPSTOW
2:05 Bondi Mist (3rd)
5:00 Beauchamp Zorro (8th of 10)
6:05 Greyemkay (2nd)

EPSOM
2:30 Lunar Deity (1st 3.20 BFSP)
4;15 Arashi (6th of 10)

HUNTINGDON
4:20 Bennys Quest (4th of 8)

NEWCASTLE
3:25 Excellent Mariner (9th of 9)
5:10 Royal Trooper (4th of 9)

RIPON
3:35 Compton (4th of 8)

WARWICK
2:10 Art Form (5th of 14)
2:45 Opt Out (1st 3.72 BFSP)


RESULT: Mixed reads on the day with 4 of 7 tracks paying dividends.  Some of the selections drifted quite significantly through the day including Art Form and Greyemkay, the latter being beaten at the line after drifing out to past 6/1.  It is the second time I have selected Arashi, the first time when it ran at Epsom and won at 9/2.


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Yesterday produced some solid reads with 5 of 6 horses finishing outside the frame, Arch Walker being the exception. 

Both York and Ffos Las maintained their 100% records.

Watching all the races, the calls returned to what I expect when selecting the horses: they weakened and faded long before the finish.

And while the two selections at Ffos Las drifted pre-off, the selections at Bath and York remained favorites at the off.

As much as I'm having a solid run of reads, I find it is just as important to put 'the streak' on the shelf as it is a bad run when sitting down each day with the goal of finding selections from the meetings.  My approach is not to go into a day thinking 'conservative' or pull back on my approach to be more open-minded.  I remained focused on the reads and look at one race at a time and go by my assessment.  Even yesterday, aware of a 54% strike-rate at Bath, I found three from the races on offer and didn't pull back. 

I mentioned two weeks ago as I found myself breaking even over a few days that you need to stick to your strategies.  Within that, you need to look at why you are doing well and contrarily where the mistakes are.  You need to constantly check your 'weights and measures' that you are using, finding where to be flexible and where not to compromise.

All this and at the same time not 'over thinking'.

WEAK FAVES FOR 24-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Ffos Las: 3 meetings: 6 for 6 (100%)
Newmarket (July) 2 meetings: 2 for 2 (100%)
York: 3 meetings: 3 for 3 (100%)

FFOS LAS
2:45 Gold Show (result: 1st BFSP 2.06)
3:55 Strumble Head (1st / BFSP 4.0)

NEWMARKET (July)
2:20 Hunting Rights (5th of 5)
4:40 Otto The Great  (1st / BFSP 6.60)

YORK
2:30 Morawij (8th of 8)
3:05 Stipulate (6th of 7)

RESULT: a 50% strike rate on the day with York the only track paying dividends. Despite drifting out to 4th of 7 in the betting, Otto The Great won the race. 

Strike-rate for the week: 24 for 29 (83%)


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I enjoyed watching Frankel run.  I had no bet on the race and simply walked away from the desk shortly after the 3:05 to take in the lead-up and the race.  It was fantastic to see the horse flip smoothly through the gears and channel all its power along the rail and carry on well past the line.   

Races like the 3:40 re-ignites the passion that can fuel me through the time spent staring at the stats, filtering through the past to trying to evaluate a likely future.  And the sights and sounds of the race quickly dampen all the 'noise' that gambling generates and can muffle our enthusiasm we have for sports.

Between Frankel and Black Caviar's runs over the past year, I feel like I have seen some incredible horses in action.

I equally enjoyed the 3:05.  Yes, Main Sequence was held in second.  But, for me, it was the ride by William Buick on Thought Worthy that was the hilite. 

I watched the final stages several times last night.  As Thought Worthy lead into the tight, final corner, Buick timed the moment perfectly knowing that the distance between himself and the pack wouldn't allow them to see him giving the initial, subtle kick to accelerate earlier than expected.  Thought Worthy rose to the task and accelerated through the corner holding the line perfectly with the same enthusiasm as a horse entering the straight.  It was an incredible, incredible tactical move by Buick as well as genuine team work between rider and horse.

That 'hidden' move to kick a moment earlier than expected was the difference between winning by a length and losing by four. 

- - -

I found York challenging for the form read.  All the horses are there for a reason.  Again, like all top meetings, the trainers and jockeys are out in force.  The list of early fave's was, to say the least, impressive.  It is where the discipline of sticking to your strategies is really tested.

In the end, I felt good about the one selection of Main Sequence.   If you put a line through Frankel's race, Main Sequence turned out to be the shortest odds fave of the day. 

And given an opportunity, I'll buy William Buick a pint for making the read look better than it was.


WEAK FAVES FOR 23-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Bath: 5 meetings: 7 for 13 (54%)
Ffos Las: 2 meetings: 4 for 4 (100%)
York: 2 meetings: 2 for 2 (100%)


BATH
2:50 Whistling Buddy (result: 6th of 8)
3:25 Arch Walker (3rd)
5:05 Laser Blazer (4th of 8)

FFOS LAS
3:15 Castletownsend (4th of 6)
4:55 West With The Wind (7th of 7)

YORK
2:00 Rocky Ground (18th of 19)

RESULT: a second day in a row with a clean sheet.  Ffos Las and York continue to have a 100% strike-rate.  Five of the six unplaced.


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Tuesday matched Monday's 6 for 7 strike rate.  The positive difference between the two days was the odds on yesterday's winner, Between Us, were 2.20 BFSP as opposed to See Clearly who won on Monday at 5.50 BFSP.

At Perth, I was pleased with Tuesday's read since I managed to find one of only two 'early price faves' that lost.  Considering the changing ground through the afternoon, something that usually throws up a few surprises, 5 of 6 that I passed on won their race.

My approach continues to work well at Brighton.  I have always found this a tricky track to read when approaching with other methods.  It's a quirky course and watching the races, you see the amount of concentration it takes by both horse and jockey to position themselves while running downhill through the 'slalom'.

As well, Yarmouth maintained a solid strike rate with both selections finishing outside the frame.



WEAK FAVES FOR 22-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Lingfield: 6 meetings: 13 for 15 (87%)
York: 1 meeting: 1 for 1 (100%)


LINGFIELD
2:15 Chasin' Rainbows
3:55 Cappadocia

YORK
3:05 Main Sequence

If there are any selections for Kempton or Newton Abbot, they will be posted by 5:15PM

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A few days ago, someone messaged that he had noticed a fair number of the 'weak faves' come in second and wondered if I had stats against BFSP for backing.

Well, yes, in percentage terms, the number of 2nds has increased from 16% in July (17 out of 109 races) to 27% in August (22/83) and since I watch as many of the races is possible, the underlying stat is how many races I held my breath this month has also increased.

Overall, the percentage of horses in August have that won or placed (including betfair markets i.e. 8 on the card, one NR makes 7 running the race but betfair still pay first 3) has increased since July.

July: 55 of 108 had placed in races with place markets (51%)

So far in August: 52 of 83 (61%)

Infact, yesterday, including the winning horse, 6 of 7 horses finished in the place market.

In July, backing all 'weak faves' to place with 1 pt would have lost around 4 pts over the the 108 races.

Including yesterday, August place backs  would have returned 10 pts over the 83 races (13% ROI).

So does it make sense to BACK a 'weak fave' in the place market?

Though I don't want to go into extensive analysis, I do classify each race I take on and am able to see where my strengths and weaknesses are.  So if you were to take the time to create your own analysis and eliminate races, then perhaps (For Brighton, Perth and Yarmouth combined, of the 29 races to date that had place markets, 12 horses won or placed).

And it doesn't go against my premise that a 'weak fave' is a horse that, based on previous fields it raced against, won't win the race.

How you use the selections is, of course, your choice.  For me, I couldn't back them for a place. If not laying the horse, it means putting a line through a 'weak fave' then finding the each way play in the race. 

But ultimately it is up to the individual and what their perception of what is value and offers up a reasonable return on investment.


WEAK FAVES FOR 21-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Brighton: 5 meetings: 11 for 13 (85%)
Perth: 1 meeting: 1 for 2 (50%)
Yarmouth: 5 meetings: 13 for 15 (87%)

BRIGHTON
3:15 Amistress result: 5th of 9
3:45 Between Us 1st (2.17 BFSP)
4:45 Ridgeway Sapphire 5th of 10
5:15 Ooi Long 5th of 7

PERTH
3:25 Jamsie Hall 2nd

YARMOUTH
3:35 Authentication 4th of 7
4:35 Sanad 9th of 11

RESULT: A second day in a row of 6 of 7 (86%).  Between Us led from the moment the stalls opened to win by 4 lengths (BFSP 2.17).  Indluding Between Us, only 2 horses finished in the frame.  I only had one stand-out selection from Perth which came in 2nd.  Of the other six races at the meeting, 5 of the 'early priced faves' won. 

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