Each week, I research and rate teams then focus on selections that are value.
WEEK 6 SUMMARY
"Stick to the value on every game", said one of my stateside mentors. If you compromise on value, you might land the strike rate but you won't land the profit."
You hear these words but it still sits heavy in your gut when you go one for nine over two weeks of NFL.
It was hard finding value then watching some of the skinny ones win their game. But watching some of the results come in yesterday, it makes you realize that, yes, in the long run, you need to invest for the returns rather than the strike rate.
So now the task of reviewing all the games from the weekend with a bank down around 18.60 compared to last Monday.
Game by Game
PIT-TEN (Thur) So far this season, the only glimmer of positives from the Titan camp has been their special teams and their defence forcing turn-over’s. Both came through in the first 30 minutes with a blocked punt converted into a touchdown and an interception that lead to a field goal at half time.
In the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half, Pittsburgh scored 13 unanswered points to take the lead 23-16 and it looked like the visitors had momentum.
The Titans drove from their own zone and, despite a solid Steelers secondary and dropped passes, tied the game with 4 minutes remaining.
The win was decided in the last minute. The Steelers 54 yard field goal was short leaving the Titans 40 seconds to play with. They capitalized with a field goal on the last play. Titans 26-23. Both bets landed, the underdogs not needing the spread. +13.40
DAL/BAL
"I am sick about losing this game...." said Jerry Jones after the loss to the Ravens.
Dallas undoubtedly played their best ball of the season and challenged the Ravens 3-0 record right to the final whistle.
Baltimore took the lead right at the half 17-10.
In the third quarter, Dallas pulled within 4 points but a 108 yard kick return on ensuing kick-off created an 11 point lead for the Ravens.
Again, Dallas clawed back points are were done 24-23 with 6 minutes left when a combination of long passes and a Ray Rice rush put the Ravens up 31-23.
Dallas did not roll over and with less than a minute left, scored a touchdown but failed the 2 point conversion.
A recovered on-side kick and pass interference by the Ravens put the ball close but not close enough for a last minute field goal upset and the Ravens held onto the the 31-29 win by a feather. DAL ML -6.00 / U 44.5 -6.00
Will post balance once I have watched games:
BUF/ARI Arizona lost 19-16 in overtime. -10 points
NYG/SF The 49er's were clobbered by the Giants 26-3 -10 points
Week 6: 40 points wagered. Net loss of -18.60
PREVIEWS
PITTSBURGH -v- TENNESSEE (Thursday night)
Last Sunday, the Steelers hosted the Eagles winning the game with a solid six minute drive at the end of the fourth quarter, their season now 2-2.
Tennessee lost their fourth game in five weeks to Minnesota.
Pittsburgh have looked better because of their passing game has gained them yards while avoiding costly turnovers. This strategy got them by while they waited for Rashard Mendenhall to return (last week 100+ rushing against the Eagles).
But relying on your passing game can be fragile.
An interesting stat that was introduced to me by someone is penalty yards per possession. Right now, the league average is around .45 yards. The Steelers are being set back by .70 per possession keeping them under pressure when third down conversions are needed.
And the Steeler defense hasn't been forcing turnovers giving their opponents opportunities to build on drives.
But now that we have five weeks of football, you realize Tennessee have had possibly the toughest schedules in the NFL, facing New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota.
True, Tennessee are yet to show life but when looking at the measure of the two teams, I expected Pittsburgh to be around 4/5 on the money line.
As well, 6.50 is the biggest spread of the season for the Steelers to cover.
Home field coupled with the line at 6.5 makes the Titans a value pay to start off week 6.
TITANS 4 points @ 3.40 (money line)(in from 3.60) TITANS 4 points @ 1.95 (+6.50)(in from 2.02)
---------
BUFFALO -v- ARIZONA
What's worse than being beaten 45-3? Being beaten 45-3 then having to spend a week in Phoenix reliving the game footage day after day.
The Bills were clobbered by San Francisco who barely broke sweat. Ryan Fitzpatrick had a promising first two games with seven touchdowns then last week, Buffalo's offense became one-dimensional.
This is accented by their struggling RB's, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, both statistically and health-wise. Arizona favour the blitz ore than most so there are doubts on any momentum on the ground for the visitors.
Which returns the pressure to Fitzpatrick to perform. But, for me, the key is that his completion % drops below 60% once the Bills fall behind. So if Arizona can gain an early lead, their defense could end up controlling the game.
Arizona return home after losing 17-3 to St Louis. Their biggest hole in their game is that the offensive line has allowed 17 sacks in two games, often at key moments. But they still managed a record of 1-1 while building that stat. Offensive coaches would have spent the past five days addressing the weaknesses of the offensive line and a stronger wall is expected.
Last week, both teams only managed a field goal in their respective games. After the first four weeks, Buffalo were 2-2. Arizona 4-0.
I gave Arizona a 60% chance of going back to winning ways and will cover the spread of -3.5
ARIZONA 10 points @1.86 (-3.5) (in from 1.94)
----------
NEW YORK GIANTS -v- SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco already have two positives going into Sunday;
- they are playing their second game at home in a row which means there has been no travel for the team since their flight home after beating the Jets on the 30th.
- they have won their last two games 34-0 and 45-3. What this means is that the 49er's haven't had to reveal a lot of depth of their game strategy's.
This week, they face the Giants at home.
Those previewing the game will focus on Manning -v- Smith. For me, Alex Smith is a quarterback who will rise to this game and create a three-prong passing attack utilizing Michael Crabtree and (former Giant) Mario Manningham to keep the secondary guessing while using Randy Moss more.
And though Smith might not have a Super Bowl ring, he does have 8 TD's and only 1 interception this season. He'll also be given the time needed to target his receivers since the Giants front four haven't been creating the same pressure they did last season.
The key stat for me that has been consistent through this years campaign from both teams; San Francisco have been solid with their rushing and have earned that Number 1 slot in the NFL. Match this up against the Giants defense which which has been giving up over 4 yards of territory with each carry and you have the home squad having the advantage when 3rd down comes for their offense.
I weighed this out and gave the 2012 49er's a 75% plus chance to defeat the 2008 Super Bowl champions making the value with the money line a little tight. The Giants aren't the Jets or the Bills but I see the margin being 8 to 9 points making -6.5 the play.
SAN FRANCISCO 10 PTS @ 1.92 (-6.5) (in from 1.94)
----------
DALLAS -v- BALTIMORE
A team that will benefit from a week of is the Dallas Cowboys. They have a 2-2 record over the first four weeks and their season has lacked momentum despite some encouraging stats during the pre-season.
Two weeks ago, they lost at home to the Bears who, like the Ravens, are 4-1.
Last week, the Ravens managed to win 9-6 over the 1-4 KC. Reviewing the past few weeks, the Raven have been winning but not with authority since their opening game against Cincinnati.
The Ravens have been reliant on Ray Rice who has been averaging +5 yards per carry while being the man they have turned to for clutch gains to keep drives going.
It is a big ask for the Cowboys to contain Rice but if they succeed, it will be the key if they are going to manage the upset. But their defense is ranked 4th so could be up to the task.
Offensively, Dallas have managed 2 wins with a lack luster ground game. So with room for improvement from two weeks of focus on today's game could be the 'upset' factor.
Ravens are 3-0 at home. I expect a tight first half keeping get game under 44.5 and for the Cowboys to win outright in a low scoring game.
Yesterday, I spent the afternoon preparing for the jumps. Unlike the flat, ratings and performance over jumps will take a bit more assessment.
Last year, I had a basic ratings for jumps that worked well. What I am finding challenging is the goings and conditions which are making it difficult to update my 'standards' and assessments of each track.
So some sleepless nights ahead as I stand in front of my white board doodling and adjusting my parameters.
Hopefully I won't go down the road of John Nash in 'A Beautiful Mind'.
-------
Everything I do is built on momentum so when faced with slogging through jump form, it can numb down your mind.
The key I found is rather than 'force' a read is to switch gears. That's what I did yesterday and while weighing out the faves, I found value in the field, something I stress is the angle rather than laying.
When doing the read on Haymarket, I couldn't find fault with any outing and the 3 length win supported that.
On my third pass of Kempton, I stuck with Hardy Blue and went on to look for solid EW plays.
My 'radar' focused in on Steelriver whose only run at Thirsk over Good to Firm showed as 6th in the form book but this was by just over a length in a half behind the eventual winner. As well, Steelriver went to 2.5 in-running that day.
It's important to note that based on my ratings, Steelriver would still have to improve to win but it was in line with Syrenka and Branson, the early 1-2 faves in the market. So it comes down to value which, in the long term, will pay and the bet was on and eventually landed at 10/1.
Progress is based on keeping an open mind on approaches rather than staying rigid. Taking our knowledge and adapting to find gains is one of the keys.
-------
I'll be assessing the reads right up to race time today so will be rolling out selections up to 2PM.
WEAK FAVES FOR 11-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Ayr: 8 meetings: 15 for 19 (79%)
Exeter: No meetings to date
Kempton: 9 meetings: 15 for 21 (71%)
Worcester: 3 meetings: 7 for 7 (100%)
Ayr
3:40 Rothesay Chancer (result: 9th of 10) drifted to 7/1
Early Price: Rothesay Chancer 5.20
Exeter
Passing on calls due to changing conditions
Kempton
8:20 Roc De Prince (7th of 10)
Early Price: Roc De Prince 4.30
Worcester
2:30 Another Trump (non-runner)
SUMMARY2 for 2 on the day, Another Trump NR. Roc De Prince went off favourite while Rothesay drifted from 4/1 to 7/1 at the off
Worcester
4:00 Nataani (1st BFSP 3.55) +2.55 5:00 The Lemonpie EW (unplaced) -1.00
Additional selections to be posted before 2PM
SUMMARY One winner and an EW placing equals a 2 for 5 strike rate. Polish Crown was the disappointment of the day while Breezolini moved in from 7/1 to go off favourite, beaten by a 28/1 Bond Fastrac. LSP wager of 5 points would have returned a loss of -.40
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
Yesterday, the reads at Catterick proved a disappointment. Mixed Message needed the whole race to win, taking a different line to the finish and suprising several in-running players (the results say it hit 100, the bulk more up to around 60). George Rooke won the race but I felt was under pressure in the end but managed to finish a length ahead of the field.
The selections to back made up for the 0 for 4 performance on Monday. I read over my selections and can see quickly where I compromised. I took Mabaany EW but it hadn't raced over soft before. I had focused too hard on times and ratings I had over firm and good, both over shorter distances. So the step up in distance coupled with the soft going should have been enough to put a line through the horse rather than put a bet on. That said, Ardmay came in second to the fave at 15/1 with no experience on soft but previous course and distance experience.
With Gull Rock, it had raced well against some solid competitors while I took Blue Dune since, despite getting nicked at the line on 2-Oct over the "extended" two miles, the time was solid. Yesterday, under 2 miles was the trip and Joe Fanning gave a different ride letting the horse settle a bit more then taking control at the half-way point, eventually landing the race cleanly by 3 lengths, returning last week's wager and a half point profit on the investment.
Yesterday, I tried putting together Wolverhampton but the with each pass, I couldn't find enough depth. Today, when I looked at the results, 4 of 6 'early faves' (readings around 3PM) won their races.
Today, I'm still easing into the jumps so mainly watching the racing today to see how my notes pan out. As well, not a lot of form in several of the race with times over questionable goings.
I've also found a few 'border' faves and rather than dubbing them 'weak faves', I have looked at their ratings against the field and found some selections to back. An example is the 4:50 with Royale Knight who is running over a longer distance than just four days ago when the going is heavy while I've got some decent ratings for Fresher Fisher who has been off the track since May.
I will do my best to look at Kempton.
WEAK FAVES FOR 10-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Ludlow: no meetings to date
Kempton: 8 meetings: 14 for 20 (70%)
Nottingham: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%)
Towcester: no meetings to date
KEMPTON
5:30 Hardy (1st BFSP 3.60)
Early Price: Hardy Boy 3.15
NOTTINGHAM
2:30 Quality Mark (result: 3rd of 6)
Early Price: Quality Mark 2.86
SUMMARYWith little jump form to go on and/or horses that have not seen a track since the spring, only two calls and a 50% strike rate when Hardy Boy wins in a photo.
Based on comments and messages I receive, the focus remains that this is simply about laying a horse.
First, yes, it is the premise since I am saying that, based on the horses performance on previous races and the competition it faced, it is selected since I see factors that say it is taking on a stronger field and/or conditions that won't suit.
Secondly, I put up my figures based on laying the horse. This allows perspective.
But I still feel the better returns can be found if you ever are able to put a line through the early fave and work through the form from there.
The risk can often be less and the return potential be more, even if dutching two or three in the field.
The key is value over the long term.
WEAK FAVES FOR 9-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Brighton: 9 meetings. 20 for 23 (87%)
Catterick: 6 meetings. 10 for 14 (71%)
Leicester: 4 meetings 8 for 9 (89%)
Wolverhampton: 11 meetings. 21 for 24 (87%)
Early Price: Mixed Message 4.40 / George Rooke 4.00
LEICESTER
3:10 Priestleys Reward (4th of 7) 4:10 Burnham (2nd by a head) *drifted to 6/1 +
Early price: Priestleys Reward 3.80 / Burnham 4.70
SUMMARY3 for 5 on the day. Both horses that won yesterday came at Catterick. George Rooke was put under some pressure but never faded while Mixed Message won after first looking to fade from contention then winning on a different line than the rest of the field.
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
CATTERICK
4:00 Blue Dune (1st BFSP 2.48) +1.48
LEICESTER
2:40 Gull Rock (1st BFSP 5.20) +4.20
SUMMARYTwo for two on the day including Blue Dune who, after leading last week by six or seven lengths, faded on a race of 2 miles 1/2 furlong, won over a distance 50 yards shy of 2 miles. LSP of 2 pts would return +5.70 (285%) bringing the week to +1.70
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
Last week, I tightened the 'focus' a bit more and had a consistent week with 14 for 16 selections successful (88%).
For jumps, it took some additional reads on how the horses ran on certain courses. This meant delaying putting up the selections which will probably be necessary till I'm able to 'fine-tune' a bit quicker.
But the patience paid off with all jumps being landed last week, the two 'weak faves' that won being on the flat at Salisbury and Ascot.
There were nine back selections last week resulting in +.18 (2% ROI).
I kicked myself for missing two to back; Rawaki at Yarmouth on Friday. I had looked at the race and found that my speed ratings could not find the danger. This usually flags up a 'second look' to see if a back is in order but despite notes scribbled and three stars noted, I only remembered when the race caller mentioned the name as it crossed.
As well, I flagged up Voodoo Prince in the 3:30 at Ascot but rereading my notes, Fattsota clearly had solid times, even when finishing 4th on two occasions on ground similar to Friday's.
Hi-liter pens have now been added to the desk.
WEAK FAVES FOR 8-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Pontefract: 3 meetings: 6 for 9 (67%)
Windsor: No selections to date
Wolverhampton: 10 meetings. 20 for 23 (87%)
SUMMARY 1 of 4 strike rate with Arctic Lynx moving to the front of the betting before the off but started slowly to eventually gaining pace near the end to finish inside the frame. 4 pts wagered would have produced an LSP loss of -2.80
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
Each week, I research and rate teams then focus on selections that are value.
Last week, three for four bets were landed returning 50% ROI. This week, 0 for 5 selections over 4 games
SUMMARY OF WK 5
No joy on any of the bets, the only one coming close was Denver given several opportunities to rally a comeback in the 4th quarter but a failed 4th down conversion and a fumble on the New Orleans ten sealed that.
Below, a summary that brings gave back week 4's winnings and a bit more.
PHI/PIT The Steelers went into the half-time break with a 10-0. The Eagles gained back 7 in the third quarter, then gaining the lead with a second touch down. Steelers had the last drive of the game lasting over 6 minutes over 60+ yards including two key third down conversions that led to a winning field goal. A losing money-line bet. However, if you had the Eagles with the spread on offer of +3 (it went to +4 before game time), you would have banked.
-8.00
SEA/CAR The Panthers may have been at home but didn't come to play. Though I haven't had a chance to look more into the game, see that Carolina only managed 190 yards of offense and their only touchdown came with an interception will probably suffice and a 'recap' till I watch the replay later this week. Seattle also won by scoring what they averaged all season, around 17 points a game. I had expected a score-line of around 34-20 giving ten points lee-way on the overs. No joy on either call giving back the profit and more from last week's Panthers bet.
-14.00
SD/NO San Diego took the lead into the locker room on a touchdown that should have been knocked down by the secondary, following up with next score early in the third quarter taking a 24-10 lead. But bets are for the whole 60 minutes and New Orleans countered with 21 points. The Chargers had one last drive but a fumble with less than a minute to go ended the drive. A losing money line bet on the underdog and New Orleans also covered the spread.
-8.00
DEN/NE Another Manning/Brady battle for the headlines. The third quarter belonged to New Orleans that added to the half time lead. The game was sealed when deep in their own half of the field, Manning had the ball forced from his hands leading to a 31-7 third quarter lead, the Broncos getting seven back a few minutes later. With 5 minutes left, a New Orleans fumble gave the Broncos a chance to get back in the game and possibly cover the +6.5 spread but a fumble on the New Orleans 10 brought the bet and the game to an end, New Orleans winning and covering the spread 31-21
-10.00
Here are the previews:
PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH
This weekend, Pittsburgh return to action after a week off to host inter-State rivals, the Philadephia Eagles.
Team reports from the Steelers say the squad is healthy after some line-up juggling.
On Defence, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison will both be playing Sunday. But most notable is Rashard Mendenhall. Running backs Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer were both given chances to make an impression and neither were able to create any plays that gave the Steelers offensive momentum.
With the opportunity to get their running game in gear, it gives more options to Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who has started the season well throwing just one interception while racking up eight touch downs.
But despite the positives during the first three games, the Steelers are not producing wins, their only victory coming at home against the Jets (who lost 34-0 last week to 49ers).
When looking at the Eagles performance, you have to feel it is not off to the most solid starts.
QB Michael Vick's fourth season with the Eagles has a notable stat of more interceptions than touchdowns. But the key stat is an air attack that has culminated more than 1,100 yards of gain while contributing 130 yards of rushing himself.
With Maclin out with injury, Vick still has options with DeSean Jackson who is averaging 15 yards per reception while his key player, LeSean McCoy, is approaching 400 yards but only one touchdown.
Statistically, it reads as a team that can't convert but they are on top of the NFC East with a 3-1 record.
The Steelers have built a fortress at home that makes it difficult for visitors. Pittsburgh will be relying heavily on Rashard Mendenhall to notch up their game but the Eagles will target to contain him. But Philadephia have managed to win while still needing to improve.
Winning breeds winning. Momentum and value make the Eagles the value bet in the match-up and I'll risk part of last week's profit made beating the Giants at home.
PHILADELPHIA TO WIN 8 POINTS @ 2.52 (Money Line)
---------
SEATTLE AT CAROLINA
One of the keys to having a successful season when betting on a sport is to find the teams that you can read as well as follow them when they are improving rather than into an obvious peak of their performance.
A team that falls into that category for week 5 is Carolina.
Last week, I made money with them on the road when they lost against Atlanta but covered the spread.
In that game, the Panthers defense sacked Falcons QB Matt Ryan 7 times, knocking him back 60+ yards. To date, the offensive line had only allowed Ryan to be sacked four times in three games.
Pressure like this can swing the possession percentages and, right now, Seattle needs every opportunity since their team stats already have them ranked at the bottom when taking averages for the first four weeks of the season.
Any positives for the Seahawks have been at home which lead to two wins. But once they get on the team bus and board a plane, their game is left at check-in. Even after two consecutive wins at home including a 27-7 win over Dallas, they lost last week in St Louis.
The Panthers are 1-3 this season and that record has kept the spread tight. Don't let last week's close score against St Louis fool you. Seattle lost to a sub-par team.
My ratings give the Panthers a 77% expectation of winning making the money-line about +20% value.
Based on last week's surging defense which will lead to more possession, coupled with previous home form, I expect Carolina to score 30+ points while Seattle is open for improvement of their average of 17 making OVERS an additional play on the game.
Carolina -3.5 8 points @2.32
Seattle/Carolina OVER 44.5 6 points @2.08
-----------
SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS
San Diego have been populating their winning score lines with touchdowns and field goals from the first week. They capitalized early with opportunities against Kansas last week. They led 27-10 by half time, going on to win 37-20. This made up for the 27-3 loss at home to the Falcons the week before and I feel a better indicator of the abilities of the team and coaching staff to keep the team a winning machine.
New Orleans came closer than expected to beat Green Bay. Even I had the Packers rated around 75% to land the home win so to see that the Saints had lost by just a point was a surprise.
All three games that the Chargers have won, they led at HT. Meanwhile, New Orleans have gone into the dressing room on three occasions behind on the scoreboard. The time they lead after 30 minutes was against Kansas two weeks ago but ended up losing the lead and eventually the game in overtime.
San Diego have negative stats when playing on artificial turf. But the coaching staff is aware of this and factored into the game strategy so best to discount it when weighing out the game.
The under/over is out past the 50 point mark. Whether close or over that mark, I'll invest on the majority of those points will be racked up by the underdogs.
San Diego 8 pts @2.64 (money line)
---------
DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND
There's nothing nicer than returning home after a big victory that put you at the top the NFL leaderboard in offense. QB Tom Brady's efficiency with passing is machine-like and has lead to seven touchdowns while only one interception has been thrown. This week, he's been on 'limited practice' in preparation for the game.
They did drop to 1-2 making team followers nervous that the winning edge would fade as this was the first time they have dropped under .500 for several seasons. And this is only their second game at home, their first was a loss to Arizona.
The visiting Broncos roll into the east coast with Peyton Manning at the helm. One of the games best strategists, he works his offense like a chess master with not only 'plan b' up his sleeve but 'c', 'd' and 'e' can be called before the snap.
Denver handled Oakland easily at home last week while, as mentioned, New England pummeled Buffalo. Denver are getting used to the reconstructed offense under Manning.
The only edge that I see in this game right now is home field which is a spread that Denver should be able to cover.
DENVER +6.5 10 PTS @ 1.96
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'FOLLOW' OR RATE THE BLOG***
'Weak fave' selections are posted Monday to Friday around 1PM.
A REMINDER For those who follow NFL football, I will be selecting value bets for Sunday's NFL. Selections can be found in the North American Blog section
http://community.betfair.com/shapeshifter/blog/2012/10/05/shapeshifter-value-rated-bets-nfl-wk-5
With the transition into the jump season, I'm doing things a little differently for today.
I will be posting the afternoon flat races then checking over the selections for jumps which will be put up shortly.
Hopefully the additional efforts made will pay off with the jump selections today.
I will keep the blog updated.
WEAK FAVES FOR 5-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Ascot: 1 meeting: 2 for 2 (100%)
Fontwell: No meetings to date
Hexham: No meetings to date
Yarmouth: 9 meetings: 23 for 28 (88%)
Wolverhampton: 10 meetings. 20 for 23 (87%)
Ascot
3:30 Voodoo Prince (result: 4th of 8) 4:05 Biographer (1st BFSP: 4.75)
Early Price: Voodoo Prince 5.10 / Biographer 3.95
Fontwell
5:00 Nudge and Nurdle (3rd of 5 by 33 Lengths)
Early Price: Nudge and Nurdle 3.20
Hexham
4:15 Seedless (2nd by 4 Lengths)
Early Price: Seedless 3.05
SUMMARY3 for 4 on the day, Biographer winning by just under 2 lengths after drifting out to 4.75.
The week ends with 14 for 16 (88%)
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
Ascot
2:55 Gaul Wood -1.00
Yarmouth
1:30 Proximity (unplaced) -1.00
SUMMARYtwo unsuccessful selections. Gaul Wood finished third after Richard Kingscote took a solo route down the middle of track while Proximity never got a hold of the going and was never a threat
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
UPDATE: Apologies for today's entry. I sat down to discover that Virgin Media had sunk to speeds reminiscent of 1994. As with the weather, there isn't much you can do when the 0's and 1's refuse to travel through the pipe. So best to walk away from the screen.
The two I posted for the afternoon were the only two that I could do without compromising the call but both were landed.
WEAK FAVES FOR 4-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Bangor: 2 meetings. 3 for 4 (75%)
Southwell: 5 meetings. 5 for 6 (83%)
Warwick: 2 meetings. 2 for 3 (67%)
Wolverhampton: 10 meetings. 20 for 23 (87%)
Southwell
3:30 Hoofalong (8th of 9)
Early Price: Hoofalong 3.80
Warwick
2:10 Future Wonder (3rd)
Early Price: Future Wonder 4.30
SUMMARY:Due to a draining battle with the pipeline, only two selections but a clean sheet bringing the week to 11 for 12. Future Wonder remained fave and moved into 3.50 at the off while Hoofalong drifted to 2F
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***
Yesterday, I backed two horses ridden by Silvestre De Sousa. He's one of the few jockey's that improve a horses run from previous ratings that I have.
He ran my each way on Gabrial's Gift as expected; from the front but didn't get anything extra out of the horse as he tried to push it through the long bend at Wolverhampton.
I also backed Blue Dune.
For that race, all focus was on Silvestre De Sousa and his performance on the clear favourite. I agree it wasn't his best ride. After leading the pace for the entire race, he rode the line perfectly from 4 furlongs, Blue Dune holding the line perfectly, asking for more at the same point most jockey's did and quickly breaking away for a six furlong lead as the pack grouped up behind.
Emerging from the pack came Lady Mandy who, despite being pushed to the outside after brushing a runner, emerged to quickly cut into the big lead.
De Sousa looked terrible leading up. After taking a solid lead, he glanced to just see Lady Mandy just as the horse cut to the inside. He then took the time to glance to the left, perhaps expecting others, eventually being caught at the line after going 1.03 in-running.
I watched twitter and forums explode as they analyzed the loss. The commentators on ATR watched the post-race interviews almost lost for words but you could tell in their voices that they, themselves, had lost money on the race. Those on the gamble focused on the jockey.
I sat down and focused on the race.
First, Blue Dune's run was not unsimilar to the previous run, that last 100 yards without any acceleration. But according to my ratings, Blue Dune ran a better time than on previous races.
So what happened.
Lady Mandy has run consistently over shorter distances. Going back, the horse had run over 2 miles in Kempton. The time/rating I have for that day was solid under not the most ideal conditions that can't be found in any results: Kempton has changed its surface which was still settling in. Times have indicating that Kempton is still running a bit slow to the point I am manually adjusting my ratings from meet to meet.
The pace was strong yesterday which gave Lady Mandy a 'rush' for the first 16 furlongs. Adrenalin going, Ryan Powell straightened up the horse and made a line for the inside and won.
I missed Lady Mandy's Kempton rating when I looked at the race. I'm a bit surprised because my notes said 'no danger'. Would Blue Dune hit the line first if De Sousa had remained more focused on the track ahead? Perhaps. But, at the end of the day, the best horse AND jockey won.
WEAK FAVES FOR 3-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
Kempton:
Newcastle: 5 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Nottingham
Salisbury: 3 meetings: 2 for 4 (50%)
Kempton
Check in later for selections
Newcastle
2:40 Rocky Two (5th of 8 runners) 3:45 See Clearly (7th of 10)
Early Price: Rocky Two: 4.10 / See Clearly 4.00
Salisbury
3:00 Cuff Link (1st BFSP: 5.52) 3:35 New Pearl (6th of 6)
Early Price: Cuff Link 4.20 / New Pearl 3.60
SUMMARY3 for 4 on the day with Cuff Link ending a streak of '7'. Rocky Two and New Pearl remained favourite at the off.
Yesterday unfolded more to the standards I aim for. Two of the three selections lost because they faded under the conditions and pace.
Even with races I didn't post, my ratings for jumps seem to be taking hold better than I thought. Hopefully they will develop into the fall helping to work towards putting lines through horses on the cards.
More to the point, when the day goes 3 for 3 plus an EW making all, it's always a great way to start a week.
The EW selection of the Lemon Pie came down to speed ratings. I couldn't discount Gud Day in the 3:00 at Newton Abbot but while researching the race, the Lemon Pie stood out despite being 4F in the early market.
I had a similar find a few weeks ago with Fastnet Storm at Pontefract. I find when looking for EW value, you need to go back further in the form and try to discount recent races. With Fastnet Storm, it was three races back to Carlisle and its winning time in June. The rating that day was superior to most of the runners in the 20-September race and was close to those in the front of the market.
The result that day was the horse drifting from around 11/1 at noon to a pre-off of 23.00 then making a strong run similar to Carlisie and finishing a solid 2nd, ahead of my 'weak fave' selection for that race, Desert Romance.
I'll give a bit more insight into ratings in the future. For now, a starting point is to look at standard times over key distances to help judge the difficulties of various tracks. Sometimes just calculating the time off the standard that a horse runs can be an indicator of value when looking at longer odds horses.
WEAK FAVES FOR 2-OCTOBER Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races
Strike rates:
AYR: 7 meetings: 14 for 18 (78%)
SEDGEFIELD: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
WOLVERHAMPTON: 9 meetings: 20 for 23 (87%)
Ayr
4:10 Lord Franklin (result: 2nd by 5 L)
Early Price: Lord Franklin 4.80
Sedgefield
4:50 Ruttan Lake (3rd by 16 L)
Early Price: Ruttan Lake 3.85
Wolverhampton
3:30 Fast Finian (2nd by 1+ L)
Early Price: Fast Finian 4.10
SUMMARYa second day with a clean sheet.
STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
SEDGEFIELD
4:20 Scriptwriter EW (4th) -1.00
WOLVERHAMPTON
3:30 Gabrials Gift EW (7th) -1.00 4:00 Blue Dune (2nd) -1.00
SUMMARY: nil for three calls on backs. Loss today at LSP is-3.00
***SHOW YOUR SUPPORT: 'RATE' AND/OR 'FOLLOW' THE BLOG***