SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday unfolded more to the standards I aim for.  Two of the three selections lost because they faded under the conditions and pace. 

Even with races I didn't post, my ratings for jumps seem to be taking hold better than I thought.  Hopefully they will develop into the fall helping to work towards putting lines through horses on the cards.

More to the point, when the day goes 3 for 3 plus an EW making all, it's always a great way to start a week.

The EW selection of the Lemon Pie came down to speed ratings.  I couldn't discount Gud Day in the 3:00 at Newton Abbot but while researching the race, the Lemon Pie stood out despite being 4F in the early market. 

I had a similar find a few weeks ago with Fastnet Storm at Pontefract.  I find when looking for EW value, you need to go back further in the form and try to discount recent races.  With Fastnet Storm, it was three races back to Carlisle and its winning time in June.  The rating that day was superior to most of the runners in the 20-September race and was close to those in the front of the market. 

The result that day was the horse drifting from around 11/1 at noon to a pre-off of 23.00 then making a strong run similar to Carlisie and finishing a solid 2nd, ahead of my 'weak fave' selection for that race, Desert Romance.

I'll give a bit more insight into ratings in the future.  For now, a starting point is to look at standard times over key distances to help judge the difficulties of various tracks.  Sometimes just calculating the time off the standard that a horse runs can be an indicator of value when looking at longer odds horses.


WEAK FAVES FOR 2-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
AYR: 7 meetings: 14 for 18 (78%)
SEDGEFIELD: 2 meetings: 3 for 5 (60%)
WOLVERHAMPTON: 9 meetings: 20 for 23 (87%)

Ayr
4:10 Lord Franklin (result: 2nd by 5 L)

Early Price: Lord Franklin 4.80

Sedgefield
4:50 Ruttan Lake (3rd by 16 L)

Early Price: Ruttan Lake 3.85

Wolverhampton
3:30 Fast Finian (2nd by 1+ L)

Early Price: Fast Finian 4.10

SUMMARY a second day with a clean sheet.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

SEDGEFIELD
4:20 Scriptwriter EW (4th) -1.00

WOLVERHAMPTON
3:30 Gabrials Gift EW (7th) -1.00
4:00 Blue Dune (2nd) -1.00

SUMMARY: nil for three calls on backs.  Loss today at LSP is -3.00



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