SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, I backed two horses ridden by Silvestre De Sousa.  He's one of the few jockey's that improve a horses run from previous ratings that I have. 

He ran my each way on Gabrial's Gift as expected; from the front but didn't get anything extra out of the horse as he tried to push it through the long bend at Wolverhampton.

I also backed Blue Dune. 

For that race, all focus was on Silvestre De Sousa and his performance on the clear favourite.  I agree it wasn't his best ride.  After leading the pace for the entire race, he rode the line perfectly from 4 furlongs, Blue Dune holding the line perfectly, asking for more at the same point most jockey's did and quickly breaking away for a six furlong lead as the pack grouped up behind.

Emerging from the pack came Lady Mandy who, despite being pushed to the outside after brushing a runner, emerged to quickly cut into the big lead.

De Sousa looked terrible leading up.  After taking a solid lead, he glanced to just see Lady Mandy just as the horse cut to the inside.  He then took the time to glance to the left, perhaps expecting others, eventually being caught at the line after going 1.03 in-running.

I watched twitter and forums explode as they analyzed the loss.  The commentators on ATR watched the post-race interviews almost lost for words but you could tell in their voices that they, themselves, had lost money on the race. Those on the gamble focused on the jockey.

I sat down and focused on the race.

First, Blue Dune's run was not unsimilar to the previous run, that last 100 yards without any acceleration.  But according to my ratings, Blue Dune ran a better time than on previous races.

So what happened.

Lady Mandy has run consistently over shorter distances.  Going back, the horse had run over 2 miles in Kempton.  The time/rating I have for that day was solid under not the most ideal conditions that can't be found in any results: Kempton has changed its surface which was still settling in.  Times have indicating that Kempton is still running a bit slow to the point I am manually adjusting my ratings from meet to meet.

The pace was strong yesterday which gave Lady Mandy a 'rush' for the first 16 furlongs.  Adrenalin going, Ryan Powell straightened up the horse and made a line for the inside and won.

I missed Lady Mandy's Kempton rating when I looked at the race.  I'm a bit surprised because my notes said 'no danger'.  Would Blue Dune hit the line first if De Sousa had remained more focused on the track ahead?  Perhaps.  But, at the end of the day, the best horse AND jockey won.


WEAK FAVES FOR 3-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton:
Newcastle: 5 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Nottingham
Salisbury: 3 meetings: 2 for 4 (50%)

Kempton
Check in later for selections

Newcastle
2:40 Rocky Two (5th of 8 runners)
3:45 See Clearly (7th of 10)

Early Price: Rocky Two: 4.10 / See Clearly 4.00

Salisbury
3:00 Cuff Link (1st BFSP: 5.52)
3:35 New Pearl (6th of 6)

Early Price: Cuff Link 4.20 / New Pearl 3.60

SUMMARY 3 for 4 on the day with Cuff Link ending a streak of '7'.  Rocky Two and New Pearl remained favourite at the off.

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Nottingham
3:20 Ascription (unplaced) -1.00
6:00 Spyder EW (2nd BFSP 7.10/3.00) +.50

Salisbury
2:30 Baltic Knight (1st BFSP 2.58) +1.58

SUMMARY: 2 for 3 races paying dividends offering a small return on the day.  At LSP, risking 3 pts would return +1.10


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