SHAPESHIFTER

Each week, I research and rate teams then focus on selections that are value.

Last week, three for four bets were landed returning 50% ROI.  This week, 0 for 5 selections over 4 games

SUMMARY OF WK 5

No joy on any of the bets, the only one coming close was Denver given several opportunities to rally a comeback in the 4th quarter but a failed 4th down conversion and a fumble on the New Orleans ten sealed that.

Below, a summary that brings gave back week 4's winnings and a bit more.


PHI/PIT The Steelers went into the half-time break with a 10-0. The Eagles gained back 7 in the third quarter, then gaining the lead with a second touch down. Steelers had the last drive of the game lasting over 6 minutes over 60+ yards including two key third down conversions that led to a winning field goal. A losing money-line bet.  However, if you had the Eagles with the spread on offer of +3 (it went to +4 before game time), you would have banked. 
-8.00

SEA/CAR The Panthers may have been at home but didn't come to play.  Though I haven't had a chance to look more into the game, see that Carolina only managed 190 yards of offense and their only touchdown came with an interception will probably suffice and a 'recap' till I watch the replay later this week.  Seattle also won by scoring what they averaged all season, around 17 points a game.  I had expected a score-line of around 34-20 giving ten points lee-way on the overs.  No joy on either call giving back the profit and more from last week's Panthers bet.
-14.00

SD/NO San Diego took the lead into the locker room on a touchdown that should have been knocked down by the secondary, following up with next score early in the third quarter taking a 24-10 lead.  But bets are for the whole 60 minutes and New Orleans countered with 21 points.  The Chargers had one last drive but a fumble with less than a minute to go ended the drive.  A losing money line bet on the underdog and New Orleans also covered the spread. 
-8.00

DEN/NE  Another Manning/Brady battle for the headlines.  The third quarter belonged to New Orleans that added to the half time lead.  The game was sealed when deep in their own half of the field, Manning had the ball forced from his hands leading to a 31-7 third quarter lead, the Broncos getting seven back a few minutes later.  With 5 minutes left, a New Orleans fumble gave the Broncos a chance to get back in the game and possibly cover the +6.5 spread but a fumble on the New Orleans 10 brought the bet and the game to an end, New Orleans winning and covering the spread 31-21
-10.00

Here are the previews:

PHILADELPHIA AT PITTSBURGH

This weekend, Pittsburgh return to action after a week off to host inter-State rivals, the Philadephia Eagles.

Team reports from the Steelers say the squad is healthy after some line-up juggling. 

On Defence, Troy Polamalu and James Harrison will both be playing Sunday.  But most notable is Rashard Mendenhall.  Running backs Isaac Redman and Jonathan Dwyer were both given chances to make an impression and neither were able to create any plays that gave the Steelers offensive momentum. 

With the opportunity to get their running game in gear, it gives more options to Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger who has started the season well throwing just one interception while racking up eight touch downs.

But despite the positives during the first three games, the Steelers are not producing wins, their only victory coming at home against the Jets (who lost 34-0 last week to 49ers).

When looking at the Eagles performance, you have to feel it is not off to the most solid starts. 

QB Michael Vick's fourth season with the Eagles has a notable stat of more interceptions than touchdowns. But the key stat is an air attack that has culminated more than 1,100 yards of gain while contributing 130 yards of rushing himself. 

With Maclin out with injury, Vick still has options with DeSean Jackson who is averaging 15 yards per reception while his key player, LeSean McCoy, is approaching 400 yards but only one touchdown.

Statistically, it reads as a team that can't convert but they are on top of the NFC East with a 3-1 record. 

The Steelers have built a fortress at home that makes it difficult for visitors.  Pittsburgh will be relying heavily on Rashard Mendenhall to notch up their game but the Eagles will target to contain him.  But Philadephia have managed to win while still needing to improve.

Winning breeds winning.  Momentum and value make the Eagles the value bet in the match-up and I'll risk part of last week's profit made beating the Giants at home.


PHILADELPHIA TO WIN 8 POINTS @ 2.52 (Money Line)


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SEATTLE AT CAROLINA


One of the keys to having a successful season when betting on a sport is to find the teams that you can read as well as follow them when they are improving rather than into an obvious peak of their performance.

A team that falls into that category for week 5 is Carolina. 

Last week, I made money with them on the road when they lost against Atlanta but covered the spread.

In that game, the Panthers defense sacked Falcons QB Matt Ryan 7 times, knocking him back 60+ yards.  To date, the offensive line had only allowed Ryan to be sacked four times in three games.

Pressure like this can swing the possession percentages and, right now, Seattle needs every opportunity since their team stats already have them ranked at the bottom when taking averages for the first four weeks of the season.

Any positives for the Seahawks have been at home which lead to two wins. But once they get on the team bus and board a plane, their game is left at check-in.  Even after two consecutive wins at home including a 27-7 win over Dallas, they lost last week in St Louis. 

The Panthers are 1-3 this season and that record has kept the spread tight.  Don't let last week's close score against St Louis fool you.  Seattle lost to a sub-par team. 

My ratings give the Panthers a 77% expectation of winning making the money-line about +20% value. 

Based on last week's surging defense which will lead to more possession, coupled with previous home form, I expect Carolina to score 30+ points while Seattle is open for improvement of their average of 17 making OVERS an additional play on the game.

Carolina -3.5 8 points @2.32

Seattle/Carolina OVER 44.5 6 points @2.08


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SAN DIEGO AT NEW ORLEANS

San Diego have been populating their winning score lines with touchdowns and field goals from the first week.  They capitalized early with opportunities against Kansas last week.  They led 27-10 by half time, going on to win 37-20.  This made up for the 27-3 loss at home to the Falcons the week before and I feel a better indicator of the abilities of the team and coaching staff to keep the team a winning machine.

New Orleans came closer than expected to beat Green Bay.  Even I had the Packers rated around 75% to land the home win so to see that the Saints had lost by just a point was a surprise.

All three games that the Chargers have won, they led at HT.  Meanwhile, New Orleans have gone into the dressing room on three occasions behind on the scoreboard.  The time they lead after 30 minutes was against Kansas two weeks ago but ended up losing the lead and eventually the game in overtime.

San Diego have negative stats when playing on artificial turf.  But the coaching staff is aware of this and factored into the game strategy so best to discount it when weighing out the game.

The under/over is out past the 50 point mark.  Whether close or over that mark, I'll invest on the majority of those points will be racked up by the underdogs.

San Diego 8 pts @2.64 (money line)

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DENVER AT NEW ENGLAND

There's nothing nicer than returning home after a big victory that put you at the top the NFL leaderboard in offense. QB Tom Brady's efficiency with passing is machine-like and has lead to seven touchdowns while only one interception has been thrown. This week, he's been on 'limited practice' in preparation for the game.

They did drop to 1-2 making team followers nervous that the winning edge would fade as this was the first time they have dropped under .500 for several seasons.  And this is only their second game at home, their first was a loss to Arizona.

The visiting Broncos roll into the east coast with Peyton Manning at the helm.  One of the games best strategists, he works his offense like a chess master with not only 'plan b' up his sleeve but 'c', 'd' and 'e' can be called before the snap.

Denver handled Oakland easily at home last week while, as mentioned, New England pummeled Buffalo.  Denver are getting used to the reconstructed offense under Manning. 

The only edge that I see in this game right now is home field which is a spread that Denver should be able to cover.


DENVER +6.5 10 PTS @ 1.96


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