SHAPESHIFTER

Each week, I research and rate teams then focus on selections that are value.

WEEK 6 SUMMARY

"Stick to the value on every game", said one of my stateside mentors.  If you compromise on value, you might land the strike rate but you won't land the profit."

You hear these words but it still sits heavy in your gut when you go one for nine over two weeks of NFL.

It was hard finding value then watching some of the skinny ones win their game.  But watching some of the results come in yesterday, it makes you realize that, yes, in the long run, you need to invest for the returns rather than the strike rate.

So now the task of reviewing all the games from the weekend with a bank down around 18.60 compared to last Monday.

Game by Game

PIT-TEN (Thur) So far this season, the only glimmer of positives from the Titan camp has been their special teams and their defence forcing turn-over’s.  Both came through in the first 30 minutes with a blocked punt converted into a touchdown and an interception that lead to a field goal at half time.

In the first 20 minutes of the 2nd half, Pittsburgh scored 13 unanswered points to take the lead 23-16 and it looked like the visitors had momentum.

The Titans drove from their own zone and, despite a solid Steelers secondary and dropped passes, tied the game with 4 minutes remaining.

The win was decided in the last minute.  The Steelers 54 yard field goal was short leaving the Titans 40 seconds to play with.  They capitalized with a field goal on the last play.  Titans 26-23.  Both bets landed, the underdogs not needing the spread.  +13.40

DAL/BAL

"I am sick about losing this game...." said Jerry Jones after the loss to the Ravens.

Dallas undoubtedly played their best ball of the season and challenged the Ravens 3-0 record right to the final whistle.

Baltimore took the lead right at the half 17-10.

In the third quarter, Dallas pulled within 4 points but a 108 yard kick return on ensuing kick-off created an 11 point lead for the Ravens.

Again, Dallas clawed back points are were done 24-23 with 6 minutes left when a combination of long passes and a Ray Rice rush put the Ravens up 31-23.

Dallas did not roll over and with less than a minute left, scored a touchdown but failed the 2 point conversion.

A recovered on-side kick and pass interference by the Ravens put the ball close but not close enough for a last minute field goal upset and the Ravens held onto the the 31-29 win by a feather. DAL ML -6.00 / U 44.5 -6.00

Will post balance once I have watched games:

BUF/ARI Arizona lost 19-16 in overtime.  -10 points

NYG/SF The 49er's were clobbered by the Giants 26-3 -10 points

Week 6: 40 points wagered.  Net loss of -18.60


PREVIEWS

PITTSBURGH -v- TENNESSEE (Thursday night)

Last Sunday, the Steelers hosted the Eagles winning the game with a solid six minute drive at the end of the fourth quarter, their season now 2-2. 

Tennessee lost their fourth game in five weeks to Minnesota.

Pittsburgh have looked better because of their passing game has gained them yards while avoiding costly turnovers.  This strategy got them by while they waited for Rashard Mendenhall to return (last week 100+ rushing against the Eagles). 

But relying on your passing game can be fragile.

An interesting stat that was introduced to me by someone is penalty yards per possession.  Right now, the league average is around .45 yards.  The Steelers are being set back by .70 per possession keeping them under pressure when third down conversions are needed.

And the Steeler defense hasn't been forcing turnovers giving their opponents opportunities to build on drives. 

But now that we have five weeks of football, you realize Tennessee have had possibly the toughest schedules in the NFL, facing New England, San Diego, Detroit, Houston and Minnesota.

True, Tennessee are yet to show life but when looking at the measure of the two teams, I expected Pittsburgh to be around 4/5 on the money line.

As well, 6.50 is the biggest spread of the season for the Steelers to cover.

Home field coupled with the line at 6.5 makes the Titans a value pay to start off week 6.


TITANS 4 points @ 3.40 (money line) (in from 3.60)
TITANS 4 points @ 1.95 (+6.50) (in from 2.02)

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BUFFALO -v- ARIZONA

What's worse than being beaten 45-3?  Being beaten 45-3 then having to spend a week in Phoenix reliving the game footage day after day.

The Bills were clobbered by San Francisco who barely broke sweat.  Ryan Fitzpatrick had a promising first two games with seven touchdowns then last week, Buffalo's offense became one-dimensional. 

This is accented by their struggling RB's, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller, both statistically and health-wise.  Arizona favour the blitz ore than most so there are doubts on any momentum on the ground for the visitors.

Which returns the pressure to Fitzpatrick to perform.  But, for me, the key is that his completion % drops below 60% once the Bills fall behind.  So if Arizona can gain an early lead, their defense could end up controlling the game.

Arizona return home after losing 17-3 to St Louis.  Their biggest hole in their game is that the offensive line has allowed 17 sacks in two games, often at key moments.  But they still managed a record of 1-1 while building that stat.  Offensive coaches would have spent the past five days addressing the weaknesses of the offensive line and a stronger wall is expected.

Last week, both teams only managed a field goal in their respective games.  After the first four weeks, Buffalo were 2-2.  Arizona 4-0.

I gave Arizona a 60% chance of going back to winning ways and will cover the spread of -3.5

ARIZONA 10 points @1.86 (-3.5) (in from 1.94)

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NEW YORK GIANTS -v- SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco already have two positives going into Sunday;
- they are playing their second game at home in a row which means there has been no travel for the team since their flight home after beating the Jets on the 30th.
- they have won their last two games 34-0 and 45-3.  What this means is that the 49er's haven't had to reveal a lot of depth of their game strategy's.

This week, they face the Giants at home.
 
Those previewing the game will focus on Manning -v- Smith.  For me, Alex Smith is a quarterback who will rise to this game and create a three-prong passing attack utilizing Michael Crabtree and (former Giant) Mario Manningham to keep the secondary guessing while using Randy Moss more.

And though Smith might not have a Super Bowl ring, he does have 8 TD's and only 1 interception this season.  He'll also be given the time needed to target his receivers since the Giants front four haven't been creating the same pressure they did last season.

The key stat for me that has been consistent through this years campaign from both teams; San Francisco have been solid with their rushing and have earned that Number 1 slot in the NFL.  Match this up against the Giants defense which which has been giving up over 4 yards of territory with each carry and you have the home squad having the advantage when 3rd down comes for their offense.

I weighed this out and gave the 2012 49er's a 75% plus chance to defeat the 2008 Super Bowl champions making the value with the money line a little tight.  The Giants aren't the Jets or the Bills but I see the margin being 8 to 9 points making -6.5 the play.

SAN FRANCISCO 10 PTS @ 1.92 (-6.5) (in from 1.94)

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DALLAS -v- BALTIMORE

A team that will benefit from a week of is the Dallas Cowboys.  They have a 2-2 record over the first four weeks and their season has lacked momentum despite some encouraging stats during the pre-season.

Two weeks ago, they lost at home to the Bears who, like the Ravens, are 4-1.

Last week, the Ravens managed to win 9-6 over the 1-4 KC.  Reviewing the past few weeks, the Raven have been winning but not with authority since their opening game against Cincinnati.

The Ravens have been reliant on Ray Rice who has been averaging +5 yards per carry while being the man they have turned to for clutch gains to keep drives going.

It is a big ask for the Cowboys to contain Rice but if they succeed, it will be the key if they are going to manage the upset.  But their defense is ranked 4th so could be up to the task.

Offensively, Dallas have managed 2 wins with a lack luster ground game.  So with room for improvement from two weeks of focus on today's game could be the 'upset' factor.

Ravens are 3-0 at home.  I expect a tight first half keeping get game under 44.5 and for the Cowboys to win outright in a low scoring game.

DALLAS 6 points @2.66 (moneyline)
DALLAS/RAVENS 6 points @ 1.98 (UNDER 44.5) (out from 1.94)