SHAPESHIFTER

"You're never alone with a schizophrenic" - Ian Hunter

Looking over the past few days, you would think it was too different people. 

But, no, it was one person who went through what all punters do which is a period where they start to think "I'll never get another winner."

I used to play golf 5 days a week, even if just nine holes in the evening.  I loved the game.

Besides a right shoulder that now dips in slightly, two major things I learnt from the game:

- visualization
- leave the bad shots behind you.

For visualization, it meant standing behind the ball, picturing it going around the tree, landing in front of the green and rolling up.  I would stand until I could see it going between the branches and rolling safely to a halt before leaving the green.  It made for some match saving shots.

I use this for betting, as well.  I will look at the notes I have, the horses that flank the selection in the stalls, the style of the jockey, etc, and will watch it unfold. 

For bad shots, it was always a matter of watching the ball come to a rest short of expectation then start the walk and using that period to 'erase' that shot from the match and once that was done, prepare for the next shot and 'regroup' into a routine that had worked successfully in the past.

That small period where I regrouped between afternoon and evening on Wednesday reminded me how important it is to leave the 'bad shots' behind you.

Besides the immediate reaction Wednesday night, the benefits were reflected in Thursday with 3 winners and an each-way returning dividends out of 6 selections.

An up and down week but regardless of today, looking forward to a pint when I get to the club house tonight.



UPDATE: All selections are up.  Best of luck with your evening.

WEAK FAVES FOR 15-February

Wolverhampton
none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
3:05 Hereford Boy EW (result: 1st BFSP 7.11/2.56) +3.60
3:40 King George River (1st BFSP 2.96) +1.90
4:50 El Libertador EW (3rd BFSP 12.50/3.04) +0.50

Wolverhampton
6:00 White Deer EW (8th / possibly pulled up) -1.00
7:30 Grilletto (2nd) -1.00
8:00 Rosie's Lady (2nd) -1.00


SUMMARY 2 winners from 6 selection (33% strike rate).  A risk of 6 points returns a profit of +3.00 (50% ROI).



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I sat on Wednesday watching Lingfield unfold and like the previous day, the selections felt like they were 'lifeless'.  As each race finished, I did a post-mortem, looking at the winners and the times, and kept looking at the results and my selections and everything just clouded over. 

Yes, Safwaan was at the bottom of the ratings for the field but I felt the value was there.  But it ran outclassed and as though horse and jockey were going through the motions.

Musselburgh comes down to what I thought were value selections, something that has kept my account under control despite the strike-rate being down.

Instead of watching the last two at Lingfield, I put on the hard disc and chilled.  The streak of poor results came down to me and nothing else.  So time to reboot and 'reconnect' with my approach to making selections.

One ability I have is to look at the field, the results, the time, the tracks and my ratings on a grid I have developed and a couple of horses will visually rise off the page and 'float' above the rest.  If nothing 'floats' within a minute or so, a line has to go through the race until I'm left with maybe four races to go through.

From there, time to dive deeper and find the value plays.

That was the case with Kempton last night.  But to try to get back on a positive track, I did it in 'shifts'.  I hit the timer to go off after 15 minutes.  I then walked away for ten each time and cleared my mind to continue through the past to predict the future.

The result; Three selections - Two winners and an each way paying dividends.

As well, this ended a streak of fourteen races without a winner. 

The expresssion "Clearer heads prevail' comes to mind.

How the streak ended did make me laugh: 

Spirit Of Gondree had the door slammed on it when trying to go up the rail and despite some drastic maneuvers, finished in a dead heat for 3rd returning a touch more than the wager.

Then Indian Affair was backed from 11/1 into 6/1 and shared the win in a dead heat.

I then watched as Luke Morris searched for the necessary gears to get Light From Mars past Polar Kite to win by a head.

If betting was a lady, last night she was a full-on tease. 



UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening.

WEAK FAVES FOR 14-February

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Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kelso
2:40 Duke Of Navan (result: 1st BFSP 4.00) +2.85
3:10 Totalize (1st BFSP 3.70) +2.60
3:40 Funky Munky EW (4th) -1.00

Kempton
5:30 Golden Desert EW (unplaced) -1.00
7:30 Thecornishcockney EW (1st BFSP 5.32/1.91) +2.50
8:00 Renoirs Lady EW (3rd BFSP 7.76/2.72) +0.35 


SUMMARY Both meetings were in profit today.  3 winners from 6 selections (50% strike-rate) and one each way returning dividends.  A risk of 6 points would have returned a profit of +6.30 (105% ROI)




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For a second week, Tuesday hit me in the gut.

As I watched the racing, the selections showed absolutely no life.  I took on the goings at hand and made a read that had no feeling or pulse.

I left the day on the desk and will dust it off in a week or so.  Luckily, they are few and far between but still can weigh heavy on your decision making if you dwell on it.

UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck if you are playing later races.

WEAK FAVES FOR 13-February

none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
5:30 Spirit Of Gondree EW (result 3rd BFSP 9.40/3.60) +0.20 *dead heat for 3rd / partial returns
6:30 Indian Affair EW (1st BFSP 7.20/2.13) +1.90 *dead heat / in from 11/1 when put up.
7:00 Light From Mars (1st BFSP 2.38) +1.30


Lingfield
2:30 On The Feather EW (4th) -1.00
3:30 Harlestone Wood (3rd) -1.00
4:00 Zaheeb (6th of 6) -1.00
4:30 Safwaan (10th of 10) -1.00

Musselburgh
2:10 Cayman Islands (2nd) -1.00
3:40 Cry Of Freedom EW (3rd BFSP 7.76/2.59) +0.30


SUMMARY A day of changing fortunes with the evening making up for an unsuccessful afternoon.  9 selections produced 2 winners (22% strike rate) and 2 each ways paying returns. A risk of 9 points returns a LSP loss of -1.30 (-14% ROI)



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Yesterday, I hi-lighted one of my three selections on the day:


Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing.  Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner.  But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it.

The play had 'checked all the boxes' and I went with it feeling the only danger was out of the race.

Sure enough, with a small field and punters feeling that a fave was "due to win", the price moved in from 4/5 at 1PM to 1/2 at the off.
And Suffice won the race and turned over the odds on fave but did so with, according to my ratings, a performance slower than previous races. 

This reminds us that horses are not machines and Full Swing underperformed and watching the race labored with the challenge from the moment Suffice set upon it.

Despite this, a small profit on the day when Patriotic won its race.

Only two of eight faves won at Wolverhampton yesterday - Dashwood and Patriotic who, until Nobel Jack refused to go into the stalls, was 2nd fave.




UPDATE: Additional play added for Southwell and all plays are up.  Good luck with your day.

WEAK FAVES FOR 12-February


None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

AYR
2:20 Milano Magic (pulled up) -1.00
3:25 Aibrean EW (fell) -1.00
4:00 Sergeant Pink EW (4th) -1.00
4:30 Rich Lord EW (5th) -1.00

LINGFIELD
2:30 Richo (2nd) -1.00
3:05 Ballinhassig (pulled up) -1.00

SOUTHWELL
4:50 Day Of Destiny (2nd) -1.00

SUMMARY a total misread on seven races resulting in a variety of results.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP loss of -7.00 (-100% ROI)

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Last week, four of the five days turned a small profit but those days simply recouped the loss from Monday at Southwell when I went 0 for 5. 

The 'stand out' stat for me on the week was 25% of the selections came second which, again, shows the fine-line between 'breaking-even' and having solid returns.

Three of the days, I had horses nicked at the line with Storm Survivor, Ballypatrick and Illustrious Forest all giving me a 'run for the money'.

Looking back over the week, punters were stung several times by odds on horses under performing.  Today, one of my selections, Full Swing, is now odds on around 4/5 with Roc De Prince non-runner.  But even when the David O´Meara was in the race, I had confidence in the selection so will be going with it. 


UPDATE: All selections are up for the day.  Good luck with your Monday and the week ahead


WEAK FAVES FOR 11-February


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Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

WOLVERHAMPTON
3:30 Full Swing (result: 2nd) -1.00  *went off at 1.48 / in from 4/5 at noon
4:30 Patriotic (1st BFSP 4.38) +3.15 *2F until Noble Jack refused to enter stalls
5:30 Fleetwoodsands EW **NON-RUNNER**
6:00 Piccolo Express EW (unplaced) -1.00


SUMMARY one winner from three returns a profit.  A risk of 3 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.15 (37% ROI)



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Like Storm Survivor on Wednesday, Ballypatrick gave a run for the money at Huntingdon yesterday but was caught at the line.  But, like the day before, the following race at the same track produced a good price winner in the form of Art Professor who had been supported all day.

I was one for two on shorter priced horses yesterday.  Mr Mole won as expected for Paul Nicholls and AP McCoy while Close Touch didn't like the step up in distance who was well beaten by African Gold.

Like the previous day, not a lot of winners but the value kept the day at more or less break even.


WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS IS PUBLISHED MONDAY TO FRIDAY PRIOR TO THE FIRST RACE OF THE DAY.


WEAK FAVES FOR 8-February


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Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Bangor
1:30 Golden Hoof (result: 1st BFSP 2.46) +1.40

Kempton
1:40 Comeonginger EW (4th) -1.00
2:50 Hatters River EW (2nd BFSP 5.44/1.99) +0.00
4:00 Pete The Feat (pulled up) -1.00

Newcastle
1:50 Dingo Bay (1st BFSP 3.00) +1.90
4:10 Sleep In First (2nd) -1.00
4:40 Copt Hill EW (unplaced) -1.00

Wolverhampton
5:00 Shawkantango EW (7th) -1.00
6:00 Romanticize EW (3rd BFSP 6.47/2.37) +0.15
7:00 Broxbourne (1st BFSP 3.50) +2.40
7:30 Illustrious Forest EW (2nd BFSP 7.00/2.45) +0.20

SUMMARY Two of four meetings returned profit today.  3 winners from 11 selections (27% strike rate) and 3 each way plays returned dividends.  A risk of 11 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.05 (9% ROI)

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Yesterday I managed a good read on one of the three tracks with Prima Porta winning at 10/1+ and Storm Survivor getting nicked at the line at equal odds. 

That was enough to cover the day despite only one winner from eight. 

I took on two races at Southwell.  Hittinthe skids lead the pace from the opening of the stalls but faded when the field straightened out for the finish.  Entitlement didn't like the sand.

I'll take the time to look at the results but think that it will take another few weeks until the new surface is packed in.  The results are reminiscent to Kempton last fall where from race to race, there was no consistency in the times then it all came into line quickly in November.

Today's racing


UPDATE Passing on Wolverhampton but tomorrow will have selections for Friday night's meeting.  Have a good evening
[b]
WEAK FAVES FOR 7-February

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Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Doncaster
1:55 Close Touch (result: 2nd) -1.00
3:35 Harris Hawk EW (10th) -1.00
4:05 Las Verglas Star EW (7th) -1.00

Huntingdon
2:05 Croco Mister (4th) -1.00
2:40 Ballypatrick EW (2nd BFSP 9.00/2.74) +0.30
3:45 Art Professor EW (1st BFSP 6.56/2.26) +3.20

Taunton
1:45 Oscar Gogo (2nd) -1.00 *drifted to EW price
2:50 Mr Mole (1st BFSP 2.52) +1.50
3:55 Niki Royal EW (4th BFSP 7.90/2.20) +0.10 *paid four places

SUMMARY Two winners on the day and three coming in second making for a second day of 'break even' results overall.  A risk of 9 points would have returned a LSP profit of +0.10



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I might have mentioned this before, but when a day unfolds they way it did yesterday, I feel like a football manager who feels that he has gotten the game plan wrong.

Yesterday, I felt like a premier league team visiting a lower league team, the simplest of game plans dissolving.

By the end of the day, I had no clear indication on where the overall read went wrong on the day.  Last evening, the conclusion is that Southwell had the same effect on my approach of cross-form as heavy can have.

I dubbed one selection as the worst for 2013 so far; Lady Lyrath in the 1:40.

I went into it aware that it was an amateur race.  Based on previous runs, I felt the horse would take lead to instructions and help Evanna McCutcheon through the race.  It was also available at 7/1 and the market backed it into 5/1 and went off co-fave so I wasn't alone with this view on the race. 

Unfortunately, the start went wrong and the jockey's inexperience didn't kick the gears up and decided to ride with the pace positioned behind the bulk of the field. 

Lady Lyrath was responding to every command but they were few and far between.  And when it looked like there was a chance of making a challenge and at least salvage an EW dividend, the horse followed commands with discipline....right into the rear of a drifter, the horse loosing all rhythm and fading.

I put a line through the race.  I also decided that if I'm going to get involved with amateur jockey's it will have to be with smaller fields and shorter distances.  I haven't bet on many and will look hard at every other race on the day before 'venturing to the plexi-glass' to put money on one in the future.

And, in general, I have to take days like that for what they are.  A loss rather than discouraging.  I do have a "you have to be in it to win it" attitude and if I dwelled on days like yesterday, I wouldn't be able to focus on the goal of the moment which is to find value plays that will lead to a positive gain on the day at hand.


UPDATE I am passing on Kempton.  Good luck with your evening.


WEAK FAVES FOR 6-February

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Carlisle
2:55 Lucematic (2nd) -1.00
3:30 Ebony River EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:35 On Broadway (unplaced) -1.00

Ludlow
2:10 Storm Survivor EW (2nd BFSP 12.00/3.20) +0.60
3:15 Prima Porta EW (1st BFSP 11.61/2.91) +6.00
4:55 Phone Home EW (4th) -1.00

Southwell
2:00 Hittinthe Skids EW (4th) -1.00
4:45 Entitlement (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY The read on the Ludlow races proved successful with a winner and a 2nd at the line returning the gains for the day.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a profit of +0.60 (7% ROI)


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The first day of selections for February offered a small return of 10% after investing in 7 races.

On Thursday, I had enough confidence in William Twiston-Davies to score on Valdaw.  Yesterday, two of his three rides were caught by my 'radar'.  Both at decent prices, I tried to narrow it down to one but, in the end, both were solid contenders.

He ran Azrael from the front only to be caught over taken before the line losing by a length.  With Wordiness, his abilities in the home straights to find the lane and power was the decisive factor in the race and the horse won well.

Overall, some decent money made the past week off of an up and coming jockey.

The day was tough viewing with three highly competitive horses suffering fatal injuries.  "Part of racing" is what the final line on the day always is but that doesn't make it any less tragic for both connections and fans of the sport.



UPDATE I have put up Southwell and passing on Market Rasen today


WEAK FAVES FOR 5-February


None



Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Southwell
1:40 Lady Lyrath EW (result: 12th *hindered in finish) -1.00
2:10 Boy The Bell EW (6th) -1.00
3:40 Sound Amigo EW (9th) -1.00
4:10 Shearian EW (4th) -1.00
4:40 Sweet Liberta (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY No hint of any decent read on Southwell.  0 for 5 for a LSP loss of -5.00


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The last week of January took a swing from one of my worst days to date to landing 4 for 4 at Lingfield on Thursday.  The psychological bonus was that though three of the four were favorites, there were only four winning faves that day at the track, the other being odds on.

Someone asked me what 'the difference' was to my approach.  The only thing I felt that contributed to the bad result at the start of the week was the quality of the racing coupled with Amateur and Apprentice jockey's on board.  Some days, it is probably better to put the energy into the next days racing rather than gamble with too many 'question marks' on performance. 

As well, perhaps that Monday 'syndrome' after the weekend contributed (perhaps something you don't want to read today).

For me, January was a confidence boost.  The all-weather couldn't have been better:

Strike rate 26 winners from 67 giving a 39% strike rate.
A level stake profit of +37.00
Translates into a 56% ROI

The obstacles remains a challenge for me, though I do enjoy it.  5 winners from 26 selections coupled with 4 each ways returning dividends made for a strike rate of 19% and a loss of 4 points.

And, as I mentioned before, I'm continuing to relook at 'weak faves' and where my reads on this have gone soft.  Expect them in the next few days but I want to start the month off with a focus on backing since behind the scenes I am preparing for the flats season.

Your views and comments are always welcome.

UPDATE All selections are up. Good luck with your day and the week ahead.


WEAK FAVES FOR 4-Februar

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Doncaster
2:25 Vintage Star (result 2nd) -1.00
4:05 Be My Deputy EW (1st BFSP 5.88/2.22) +3.00
4:35 Worth A Kings EW (unplaced) -1.00

Wolverhampton
3:20 Yungaburra EW (9th/11) -1.00
3:50 Azrael (2nd) -1.00
4:25 Frontier Fighter (3rd) -1.00
5:25 Wordiness (1st BFSP 3.82) +2.70


SUMMARY A winner at each track translates into a small return and a 28% strike rate.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP return of +0.70 (10% ROI)


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