SHAPESHIFTER

The last week of January took a swing from one of my worst days to date to landing 4 for 4 at Lingfield on Thursday.  The psychological bonus was that though three of the four were favorites, there were only four winning faves that day at the track, the other being odds on.

Someone asked me what 'the difference' was to my approach.  The only thing I felt that contributed to the bad result at the start of the week was the quality of the racing coupled with Amateur and Apprentice jockey's on board.  Some days, it is probably better to put the energy into the next days racing rather than gamble with too many 'question marks' on performance. 

As well, perhaps that Monday 'syndrome' after the weekend contributed (perhaps something you don't want to read today).

For me, January was a confidence boost.  The all-weather couldn't have been better:

Strike rate 26 winners from 67 giving a 39% strike rate.
A level stake profit of +37.00
Translates into a 56% ROI

The obstacles remains a challenge for me, though I do enjoy it.  5 winners from 26 selections coupled with 4 each ways returning dividends made for a strike rate of 19% and a loss of 4 points.

And, as I mentioned before, I'm continuing to relook at 'weak faves' and where my reads on this have gone soft.  Expect them in the next few days but I want to start the month off with a focus on backing since behind the scenes I am preparing for the flats season.

Your views and comments are always welcome.

UPDATE All selections are up. Good luck with your day and the week ahead.


WEAK FAVES FOR 4-Februar

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Doncaster
2:25 Vintage Star (result 2nd) -1.00
4:05 Be My Deputy EW (1st BFSP 5.88/2.22) +3.00
4:35 Worth A Kings EW (unplaced) -1.00

Wolverhampton
3:20 Yungaburra EW (9th/11) -1.00
3:50 Azrael (2nd) -1.00
4:25 Frontier Fighter (3rd) -1.00
5:25 Wordiness (1st BFSP 3.82) +2.70


SUMMARY A winner at each track translates into a small return and a 28% strike rate.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP return of +0.70 (10% ROI)


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                Your comments and views are always welcomed