SHAPESHIFTER

Last week, my strike rate dropped one race under 80% with 26 of 33 selections failing to win their race. 

I still don't have enough data to start deciding where to focus my energies.  The approach I am using can't be back-dated since it "of the moment".

The first that will become apparent will be the tracks.  At one end of the chart, we have some tracks at 100%, Wolverhampton being one (9 for 9 over 2 meetings) while at the other end, Bath is 50% (4 for 8 over 3 meetings).

In the past, one key stat that has pointed me in the right direction is distance.  Whether laying or back, I seemed to do my best when taking on 6, 7 and 8 furlong races. 

I improved 5 furlong races by becoming much more analytical and using my speed ratings to find each way plays.

For distances of up to 12 furlongs, the larger the field, the more of a return on my EW plays.

Over the coming weeks, I will add columns which will give me insight on where to focus my time.

The more technical results such as track, going and distances will decide which tracks to take on when looking at the daunting task of scanning multiple meetings.  The stats on jockeys and trainers will simply mean taking a closer look at their performances under certain conditions to find where they excel, where they are average and where they underperform.

Today, based on track records:
Wolverhampton, as mentioned, is 9 for 9 though 5 placed
Kempton: one meeting 2 for 2, both unplaced
Carlisle: 2 for 6 (one meeting in June)

while I haven't used the 'weak fave' approach at Ripon yet.


WEAK FAVES FOR 6-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

KEMPTON
3:00 Venetian View
3:30 Abriachan

RIPON
2:45 Elusive Bonus
3:45 Kelly's Eye
5:15 Song Of The Siren

WOLVERHAMPTON (added 5:55)
7:50 Another Citizen

RESULTS: The week started with two horses winning their races. Kelly's Eye was unplaced while Song Of The Siren weakened two furlongs as expected then found extra, losing but just.  Wolverhampton maintained a 100% strike rate. 3 for 5 on the day.

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I played Goodwood again after a day away.  With any meeting, if selections aren't becoming obvious, it's best not to 'force' selections and move on.  Landing 4 for 4 at the other meetings on Wednesday proved that my time was properly used.

I also find the better the fields, the deeper you have to go in the form.  And, as I mentioned a few days ago, I find need to focus even harder on the horses performances rather than the names of the trainers and jockey's until later in the process.

Even though my approach is to find faves that have not run against what I consider 'weak fields', I am well aware that top trainers will work hard on preparing and placing a horse in the right race while certain jockeys will get more out of a horse than those that rode previously.

So once I've found two or three to take on, I'll look a little closer at the trainers and jockeys.

Often you'll see a strike-rate of a trainer that is strong at a particular track.  But once you take the time to look a bit deeper at the stats, you'll often find their "20% strike rate" is based on longer distances when today's horse is entered into a sprint.  Or you'll find they use it as a springboard for their three year olds but their older horses rarely have success.  You'll also find that a trainer's success at a track comes down to a handful of jockey's but today they are working with someone that underperforms at the track.

If you take the time, you'll find which tracks and conditions that  trainers and jockeys excel or struggle at.  You then have to decide how much weight or bearing it will have on the race.

- - - 

Unlike the day before with Kalk Hand, all the faves selected on Thursday stayed solid in the betting.  Two remained favorites while Estimate drifted 3 ticks on betfair but remained co-fave at bookmakers for the race.

24 picks so far this week.  Today will bring it to a minimum of 30, slightly above the average of 27 a week.  Perhaps coming down to taking on more meetings per day.

Today, selections from Goodwood and Thirsk.  But I've also spent the past week reading form on the summer jumps and there are some selections for Bangor.



WEAK FAVES FOR 3-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

BANGOR
3:55 Bay Centra
5:00 Marie Des Anges

GOODWOOD
2:00 Gatewood

THIRSK
2:20 Blades Rose
4:05 Guiletta
4:40 Baheeja

BATH (added at 5:55PM)
6:35 Authoritarian
7:40 Callisto Moon

MUSSELBURGH (added at 5:55PM)
6:10 Houston Dynimo

RESULT: 5 for 6 in the afternoon, the mis-read being Baheeja (3.00 BFSP) ending the latest streak at nine in a row. Both reads over jumps at Bangor were successful.  For the Goodwood meeting, I was 5 for 5 on the week.

The evening session was 2 for 3.  Houston Dynimo drifted from 4/1 to 17/2 at the off and finished outside the frame.  5 of the 7 winners at Bath were faves. I was 1 for 2, successful with Callisto Moon who was going for win number 4 while Authoritarian won by a neck.


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Yesterday an example of where a 'weak fave' drifts heavily.  Kalk Bay moved from 4/1 out to 8/1 on Betfair.

At that point, it becomes a question of where a horse crosses that line to becoming a value EW play. 

I don't have time today, but there have been a few drifters during the month (I can't be the only person thinking there is value elsewhere in the race).

The last few weeks, I kept track of the price at noon versus the off.  When compared to the BFSP, the odds at the off were shorter.

I'll touch on this later this week.  Views are always welcomed via comments.


WEAK FAVES FOR 2-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

GOODWOOD
2:45 Ahern
3:45 Estimate

NOTTINGHAM
3:05 Moorhouse Girl
4:45 Dynamic Duo

RESULT 4 for 4 on the day.  The two at Goodwood make for a cleansheet so far for the meeting.

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I finished the month with 4 for 6 on Tuesday, both horses that won at Ayr.  I'll have to take a closer look at Ayr, especially since the only two faves that won on Tuesday were among the three I flagged up as 'weak'. However, the average BFSP (Betfair SP) of the 3 horses that won this week is 2.6 (6/4) which is below my overall average price of losers. 

I was pleased with Beverley where I was 1 for 1 on a day.  This is because 3 of 7 faves won yesterday meaning my read to "pass" on those races was correct.  I only had two selections over two meetings in July, so a good example that less can offer steady returns.   

I often find major meetings intimidating. The cards are stacked with the best trainers and jockeys teaming up on the best horses.  So when both selections came in, I was pleased with the result and a bit of a boost to the month.

---

The month was consistently around 80% with 87 of 109 'weak faves' losing their race.  Of the 87 that didn't win, 62% (54) were unplaced.

For those that won, the average BFSP was 3.60 (13/5).

Even with my previous data, with just over 100 races in July, there isn't enough races to determine the best tracks, distances, trainers, etc to 'fine tune' my approach to finding 'weak faves'.

As well, it isn't just about finding "faves to lay". It is also an approach to find put a line through a horse on the card that encourages you to look for value in the rest of the field. In the four races where the 'weak faves' didn't win, the winners paid (BFSP) 5.40 (3rd fave), 8.40 (3F), 4.20 (2F) and 25.00.

And, as punters, pundits and myself have all been talking about, the weather played a role on racing that is usually reserved for October and November making for an unusual opening quarter to the flat season. 

I also don't want to over think the process and create so many filters and conditions that I end up passing on too many selections.  I've learnt not to be 'rigid' in my approach and since the core of this is to first use traditional methods of form reading, an open mind must be used to approach each race.

If I take three things into August from the start:

- focus on the task at hand is needed when making your selections

- even the briefest of notes on why (or why not) helps with post-result analysis

- And the mantra "there is always another horse race" is key to passing on an event rather than making one that feels forced afterwards.


WEAK FAVES FOR 1-AUGUST
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

REDCAR
2:50 Legal Bond
4:00 Voice From Above
4:35 Kalk Bay

LEICESTER (posted at 5:27)
6:45 Crown Dependency
7:15 Barkis

PERTH
8:00 Red Kingdom
9:00 Solis

RESULTS: a clean sheet at Leicester but the read on Kalk Bay was off to win the race after drifting to BFSP 9.80. Red Kingdom won at just over evens.

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Leading into yesterday, I was 100% at Ayr with 7 of 9 selections being unplaced.

The first play of the day was Dutch Heritage who broke that streak and was my only 'weak fave' to win on Monday.

As I watched the race unfold, I was impressed with Tony Hamilton's moves leading up to his dash to the finish.  He had won the previous race on Majestic Moon and his confidence showed 30 minutes later as he tracked the field and swung out to the middle catching the leaders and in-running traders by surprise.

--

Win or lose, I always relook at my selections afterwards.  If I bet on a football match and the 4/5 home selection won with an 85th minute goal, though winnings went into my account I don't consider it a 'solid' selection.

With football, I expect a selection to win by 2 goals with at least one goal coming in the first half.  If my selection failed to score in the first half but finished 3-0 up with all the goals scored in the last 15 minutes, I look at why they were held for the first 75 minutes and bear this in mind rather than going by the result in the paper.

With horses, I expect a 'weak fave' to finish around 4 lengths per mile behind the eventual winner, 5 if the going is on the softer side of good.  Anything inside that, I need to look at and compare it with other races on the day to determine how good I am at reading the track.

I also look at selections I passed on to see if they won or ran close to the winner. 

So with Dutch Heritage winning by 3/4 of a length and Yours Ever losing the next by only 1/2 a length, it means taking a moment to look closer at my reads at Ayr to gauge how strong my selections have been at the track in order to maintain a strong strike rate.  It's a matter of determining which factors should be given more weight when trying to identify 'weak faves' .

The same with Lingfield: Both horses inside 2 lengths over distances of 10 and 12 furlongs.

But as previous results had shown me, Yarmouth is one of my stronger tracks, thus why there were three on the day:

Wordsaplenty: 3 3/4 Lengths over 6 furlongs
Soap Wars: 7 L over 6 F
Flynn's Boy: 2 1/4 + over 7F *but the first 5 finished within 4 lengths.

It's a matter of keeping "success" in perspective and finding your stronger tracks to play and focusing your time accordingly.


WEAK FAVES FOR 31-JULY
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

AYR
2:15 Decision By One
2:45 Sandy's Row
3:20 Tajneed

Beverley
2:55 Emperors Waltz

Goodwood
2:35 Michelangelo
4:50 Jacob's Cat

RESULTS: 4 for 6 on the day.  Both horses that won their races were at Ayr.  The one selection at Beverley was correct on a day where 3 of 7 faves won at the track.  I was pleased with the 2 for 2 at Goodwood, both horses not in the mix.

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Friday's racing produced a good example of a 'weak fave'.

In the 3:45 at Southwell, Jockey Richard Johnson took Kack Handed to the front from the first hurdle offering up a steady pace to the field. 

Early on, the thought of "made all" crosses my mind but you simply have to remind myself that it is a 2 miler over hurdles and not a 7 furlong flat race.

Just over half-way, Kack Handed was still leading over the hurdles while Jamie Moore and Charlie Poste were content following.  It wasn't until around three furlongs out that they made a collective move to challenge the leader.

As they book-cased Kack Handed, this is where the analysis becomes apparent. 

Before Friday, Richard Johnson has ridden the horse 16 times, winning four.  But when the challenge came, he asked for a surge and Kack Handed's engine sputtered leaving Goodwood Starlight and Topenhall to battle for the win.

--

The race before at Worcester was 20 furlongs and right at 2 miles, Kack Handed faded from contention.

The races for Kack Handed in April and May produced a win and two seconds.  But this was on ground with more give than last Friday and, most importantly for me, when looking at the horses that Kack Handed beat on thoses days, based on their subsequent races, I felt the competition to date had not been a strong and Friday's race would be too challenging.

Therefore, enough support to feel that the negatives outweighed the (perceived) positive of a step back to 2 miles and the flag for 'weak fave' was given.

--

Friday also hilited the importance of waking with the previous day behind you and a clean slate.

On Thursday, I had flagged up 13 'weak faves' over five meetings, 4 of them winning with an average BFSP of 3.20.

I approached Friday's meetings no differently and uninfluenced by Thursday's performance and found five selections over three afternoon meetings finishing the week with a clean sheet. 

Despite compiling a long-list for evening racing that needed to be tightened and Mrs Shapeshifter expecting me to be focused on the screens until 8PM, I instead closed down for the week and spent the evening kicking a football around with Shapeshifter jr while Princess Shapeshifter rode her new bike around the park.


WEAK FAVES for 30-July
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

AYR
2:35 Dutch Heritage
3:05 Yours Ever

LINGFIELD
5:10 Mizbah
5:40 Norfolk Sky

YARMOUTH
2:45 Wordsaplenty
3:15 Soap Wars
3:50 Flynns Boy




Comments always welcomed


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Yesterday wasn't the first time I ended up with five 'weak faves' at a meeting this month.  On 2-July, I had five at Wolverhampton and four at Pontefract.

That day, all nine 'weak faves' did not win their races.  Some remained faves at the off while others, like Poppy Golightly drifted the entire day going off at 14/1.

On 10-July, I also had four at Wolverhampton, all four not winning.

For July, that would be 100% with 13 selections over 3 cards before yesterday.

So when I ended up with five at Bath, there was no feeling of "overselection".  I did go over the horses again but stuck with my reads since I have found in the past that "over thinking" on the horses has the same affect it had on my golf game.

The one I did fence sit on was Bermonsey Bob. I missed the race and will try to look at it later but based on the result of nk/nk/hd and two horses sub 2.0 in-running in defeat, perhaps I was one race 'early'. 

But I have learnt in time that when I second guess or review selections when betting on sports, more often by sticking to my views, my overall focus is consistent.

I also mentioned earlier this week that I felt the goings had been in my favor, the overnight rains, the unpredictability of the ground and weather conditions throwing up several surprises.  This week, the words "good" and "firm" made their way back into racing and based on my stop watch, Thursday's racing had some strong early paces.  And when looking over the past six weeks, there's not a lot of form is on offer that reflects those conditions.   

I will stick to my checklist and approach, though some tweaking will be done as conditions that have normally come into play in May are now upon us.  July has always been a good month for three year olds.  I wonder if the wet June means that some that disappointed the past few weeks will surprise us in August.

As for flagging four or five 'weak faves' at a meeting, I won't shy away in the future.  Overall, I'm 88%, well above my overall strike rate for July.


WEAK FAVES for 27-July

ASCOT
2:55 Dansili Dual
3:30 Beatrice Aurore

SOUTHWELL
3:45 Kack Handed

THIRSK
3:55 Cactus Valley
5:55 Art Form

5 for 5 today.  Best to always finish on a positive note so no plays for this evening.  A cool pint awaits.

Comments always welcome

Yesterday, I flagged up Pharoh Jake as a 'weak fave' in the 4:40 at Lingfield.  This was the second time in six days after doing so at Brighton.

The result that day was a 2nd and the Racing Post notes read:
   
Chased leaders, ridden to challenge 2f out, led over 1f out, driven and headed inside final furlong, outpaced by winner and one pace final 100yds (op 4-1)

My decision that Pharoh Jake was a "weak fave" today was not based on the Brighton run but on the same reasons that I thought it wouldn't win on the 19th. 

Why not factor in the Brighton race?

Despite Pharoh Jake coming in second that day and form notes reading that it did lead until half a furlong out, I put a line through the race.

This is because the "2nd" and race notes don't say is that with 2 furlongs left, the co-fave Tenancy squeezed Perfect Honour and White Shift into the rail taking all three out of contention.

But my race notes for the 19th and specifically for Pharoh Jake read:

"Ignore 19-July/Brighton: False second. 3 contenders hampered 2 furlongs out"

So when I found Pharoh Jake one of the morning fave's at Lingfield, I felt the reasons it was a 'weak fave' on the 19th still carried weight less than a week later.

Yesterday, Pharoh Jake drifted by the off and finished 6th after showing nothing in the straight.

The form on offer doesn't always tell the whole story.  Taking a moment to make a note can pay for itself when a horse runs next time out.


WEAK FAVES for 26-July
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races


BATH
2:10 Play Street
4:25 Authoritarian
5:00 Taroum
5:30 Bermondsey Bob
5:55 Sarangoo

SANDOWN
4:50 Flavius Victor

EVENING RACING ADDED AT 6:09PM

DONCASTER
8:25 Sky Khan
8:55 The High Man

EPSOM
6:35 Flash City
7:40 Moodhill
8:15 Arashi

FOLKESTONE
7:25 Rum Punch
8:00 Silver Six

RESULTS: will update by Monday

comments are always welcomed

Yesterday, the 3:30 at Musselburgh went from 10 declared to just 4 runners at post time.  I had flagged up Houston Dynimo as a 'weak fave'

To clarify what a 'weak fave' is, I first create a selection of horses by looking at the quality of the fields of their previous races.  So if a horse beats a field that show bad performances subsequent to that day, then they are on the long list that is then looked at closer before being targeted as a 'weak fave'.

This is a judgement call solely on their abilities though both trainer and jockey records are brought into play.

From there, if one was to consider backing a 'weak fave' (it is, of course, a sport of opinions), then a conservative bet might be in order.

Another option is to take on the 'weak fave' with another runner in the race, perhaps an each-way play on a longer odds horse.

But If one was to consider laying, then it's a matter of also finding two or three horses to support the play. It's always easy to say "this horse isn't going to win".  It is another to find the the horses that will support that view, even if it is one of the field that you think will set a pace that will make the early going difficult for your lay.

That doesn't change my view that Houston Dynimo was a 'weak fave'.  But, by post time, the complexion of the race had changed since noon.  So the decision on how to play the race, whether back, oppose, lay or pass on the event would have to be weighed out again.

Like a football manager with several game plans for the first 45 minutes, it is necessary to monitor how things are unfolding and adjust accordingly when the complexion of the event changes.


WEAK FAVES based on the quality of the fields in previous races:

CATTERICK
2:00 Grievous Angel
4:30 Oakbrook

LINGFIELD
2:10 Just Past Andover
4:10 Tis Rock 'n' Roll
4:40 Pharoh Jake

RESULT 80% on the day but the week is lacking 'momentum'. Grievous Angel just beaten into second while Pharoh Jake was flagged up a second time in a month (will post more on this tomorrow).

Catterick's July strike-rate is 60% (6 for 10).  And though Lingfield is 85% (6 for 7), there have been three horses finishing second.

Looking over the past few weeks and the results that races have thrown up, it becomes apparent that the weather and going has made things difficult for the punter to find a winner.

Earlier this month, I had excellent success finding each way selections to the tune of a 40%+ strike rate and a return that matched.

The following ten days, I might have had a dart board to make selections.

So when studying to find the 'weak faves', I think the next few weeks will be a 'transition' for racing.  Three year olds that showed little life will surprise us while older horses may find the faster pace as the ground dries out more challenging.

In other words, it is a matter of looking at all results, not just the races you played, to get a sense of where racing is progressing.



WEAK FAVES based on the quality of their field in previous races:

Musselburgh
3:30 Houston Dynimo

Yarmouth
2:50 Ihtifal
3:20 Virginia Galilei
4:50 Arch Walker

Best of luck with your day

RESULT Ihtifal won over 6 furlongs without a challenge from any other horses.  Houston Dynamo won but in a depleted field that changed the entire complexion of the race.