SHAPESHIFTER

February finished in profit after the first two weeks had produced only a handful of winning selections.

By the end of the afternoon of the 13th, eight days of selections had produced a loss of 14 points. I also found myself with a streak of 14 losing horses in a row.

It was not until that evening the month turned around.  The 'betting Gods' started the turn-around by painting the finest of lines between profit and loss; My three selections at Kempton that night:  Spirit Of Gondree EW deadheated for 3rd.  Indian Affair EW won in a deadheat then Light From Mars battled to win by a head over Polar Kite.

The next day, six selections returned a 100% ROI and the month rolled from there.

The second half stats are solid: Over ten days of selections, my strike rate had improved from 18% in the first half to 32% with 20 of my 62 selections winning.  And of the each-ways that hadn't won, 11 had made the frame so, overall, 50% of my selections paid dividends back to the 14th.

February finished on a high with an each-way selection, Shearian, winning at 15/1.  In two weeks, I had gone from showing no gains for my efforts to 29 points for the month bringing 2013 to over 60 points and a 29% ROI.


STATS FOR FEBRUARY
18 days of selections

SELECTIONS: 121
WINS: 31
STRIKE RATE: 26%
EW'S PLACING: 19
LSP PROFIT: 28.85 (against BFSP)
ROI: 24%


2013 TO END OF FEBRUARY
29 days of selections

SELECTIONS: 214
WINS: 62
STRIKE RATE: 29%
EW'S PLACING: 31
LSP PROFIT: 62.00 (against BFSP)
ROI: 29%


This blog is published Monday to Friday around 1PM each day.  For evening racing, it is updated before the first race


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The very last bet of February finished with Shearian winning at 15/1.  The other plus on the day was narrowing Ludlow down to just one race and landing the Venetia Williams runner, Ballyoliver at 71/1.

Combined the two each-way bets made up for the 0 for 3 at Southwell, a sign that I still don't have a grip on the track and perhaps questions about the surface and its recovery since flooding at the close of last year.

I started reading through February last night reviewing the pluses and minuses, summarizing my notes and preparing for the close of jumps and the start of the new flat season.

For 'weak faves', I seem to be wary on restarting them.  Perhaps part of the mindset and will update you on this in the coming week.

Thanks, again, for your messages in my in-box this morning.  It is appreciated.


UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK: 1-MARCH

Lingfield
2:00 Pathos (result: 2nd) -1.00
4:50 Chokidar (3rd) -1.00
5:20 Blazeofenchantment (1st BFSP 2.00) +.95

Newbury
3:30 Sir Frank (9th) -1.00

Wolverhampton
6:40 Holding Fast EW (unplaced) -1.00
7:40 Dakota Canyon EW (1st BFSP 5.15/1.86) +2.40
8:10 Scribe EW (--) -1.00

SUMMARY Two winners from seven selection (28% strike rate) and a second due to David Probert's 'pose' at the finish. A risk of 7 points would have returned a loss of -1.65

For the week: 35 selections produces 11 winners (31% SR). Four each-ways made the frame to return dividends. A risk of 35 pts returns a LSP profit of +16.20 (46% ROI).


WEAK FAVES FOR 1-March

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Wednesday finished with three winners and two each ways returning dividends out of eight selections.  The ROI on the day came to 100%.  That brings this week to 7 winners from 19 selections, a 37% strike rate and around a 55% ROI.

I'd also like to say thanks for the messages and comments.  It is appreciated.


UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening


WEAK FAVES FOR 28-February

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Ludlow
3:30 Ballyoliver EW (result: 1st BFSP 8.12/2.48) +4.10

Kempton
6:30 Scent Of Roses (2nd) -1.00
7:00 Avonmore Star (4th) -1.00
8:00 Shearian EW (1st BFSP 16.46/4.13) +8.80

Southwell
4:20 Ascendant (4th) -1.00
4:50 Marshall Art EW (10th of 13) -1.00
5:20 Berlusca EW (7th of 8) -1.00

Taunton
2:10 No To Trident EW (3rd BFSP 5.70/1.89) -0.10
5:10 Lady Bridget EW (5th) -1.00


SUMMARY 9 selections over 4 meetings produces 2 winners (22% strike rate) and one EW in the frame.  A risk of 9 points returns a LSP profit of +6.80 (75% ROI)


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Yesterday, 3 winners emerged from 6 selections. 

I did take on one horse that was odds on then drifted to evens at the off.  Broxbourne was going for his 4th win which was achieved but was challenged right to the line.  I took on the call knowing all the factors but looked at the circuit at Lingfield as a straight-up challenge for the horse. 

The other two at Lingfield were a disappointment, Fonterutoli and Mack's Truck both lacking the mustard it takes to win races.

I had three over obstacles.  The day started with Be My Deputy drifting before the off and winning.  Iron Butterfly's result read's 4th but the 30/1 (BFSP) EW play finished just over a second behind the eventual winner so one for the notebooks over a similar distance.

The Fox's Decree won but cashing in the winning slip came because No Way Hozay was pulled up after a fatal injury when it looked like winning. 

UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening


WEAK FAVES FOR 27-February


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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Bangor
3:20 Tullyraine EW (result 1st 9.10/3.45) +5.00
3:50 Milo Milan (3rd) -1.00
4:50 Starsky Des Mottes (4th) -1.00

Kempton
6:30 The Strig EW (3rd BFSP 12.50/3.30) +0.60
8:30 Thereabouts EW (unplaced) -1.00

Wincanton
2:30 E Street Boy EW (1st BFSP 5.70/ 1.90) +2.70
3:00 Criqtonic (1st BFSP 3.37) +2.25
4:00 Prickles EW (2nd in photo BFSP 13.00/3.35) +0.65


SUMMARY The first three selections of the day win.  The balance of the day had 2 each-ways returning dividends so the overall strike rate was 37%.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP profit of +8.20 (100% ROI)




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January had been 'easy' with no heavy streak of losses, several each-ways returning dividend until winners came in. 

The first two weeks of February were the opposite.  At one point I went 14 selections where no money was coming back to me.  It came down to a combination of bad race selection and then even worse selections.

Last week, win or lose, at least I felt like I had a pulse on the markets. 

So on Friday when the races at Wolverhampton were coming up, I felt good enough about the afternoon to take on the evening card.

But knowing the week had gone well and a fraction of the bank was poised for 'take away', I decided to take the each way angle and, in a sense, play it safe while challenging myself to find a good priced winner.

Jumbo Prada did run well, finishing in the frame after an early challenge.  Track regular Lean On Pete was 5F in the market but hit the frame.  But the last race, I had Atlantic Beach and the fave, Sunrise Dance 'rated' but the value didn't work out and the former disappointed. 

The evening more or less broke even but finished the week on a decent note.

More and more, I will employ 'overall' strategies as game plans when looking at the cards and subsequently my wagering.  I do know that if I make the effort to first put lines through races, thus removing a lot of distractions and noise, THEN look at the balance, those days have had better results.

Your views on how you approach the race day are more than welcome



UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your day



WEAK FAVES FOR 26-February

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Catterick
2:50 Iron Butterfly EW (result 4th) -1.00
4:50 The Fox's Decree (1st BFSP 2.90) +1.80

Leicester
2:30 Be My Deputy EW (1st BFSP 6.60/2.22) +3.25

Lingfield
3:10 Fonterutoli (6th) -1.00
3:40 Mack's Sister EW (---) -1.00
5:10 Broxbourne (1st BFSP 2.02) +1.00

SUMMARY 3 winners from 6 selections (50% strike rate) though Fonterutoli a disappointment.  A risk of 6 points returns a LSP profit of +3.05 (50% ROI)




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February has turned around after a couple of days in the first two weeks put dents into the gains.

Last week, 22 selections yielded 6 winners (27% strike rate) while 6 each way plays returned dividends.  Overall, a LSP gain of 12.60 and a 57% ROI.


UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your day and the week ahead



WEAK FAVES FOR 25-February[/b]

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
2:50 Bridge The Gap (result: 1st BFSP 3.91) +2.75
3:50 Alhabaan (3rd) -1.00
4:20 Stir Trader EW (3rd BFSP 8.00/1.97) -0.05

Wolverhampton
4:00 Cheers for Thea EW (3rd/2 places paid) -1.00
5:30 Tatting EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Five selections on the day with one winner and one each-way returning the wager.  A risk of 5 points would have returned a LSP loss of -0.30


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The week up to end of day Thursday:
14 selections
5 winners (36% strike rate)
2 each ways returning dividends

A risk of 14 points would have returned a LSP profit of +11.50 (82% ROI)



UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening and have a good weekend



WEAK FAVES FOR 22-February[/b]

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK


Lingfield
2:30 Flavius Victor (result: 6th of 7) -1.00
3:05 Diamond Vine EW (2nd BFSP 6.20/2.64) +0.30
3:40 Silverware (5th of 6) -1.00
4:40 Sail Home (1st BFSP 4.20) +3.00


Wolverhampton
7:30 Jumbo Prado EW (3rd BFSP 7.32/2.52) +0.25
8:00 Lean On Pete EW (3rd BFSP 8.80/3.19) +0.55
8:30 Atlantic Beach EW (8th) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one winner on the day but three EW's returned dividends means the day ended up with a small return.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.10 (16% ROI)

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The week so far:
11 selections
3 winners (27% strike rate)
2 each ways returning dividends

A risk of 11 points would have returned a LSP profit of +3.90 (35% ROI)


UPDATE: Passing on 8:00 and the 'hands and heels'.  Have a good evening.



WEAK FAVES FOR 20-February[/b]

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
7:30 Clear Praise EW (result: unplaced) -1.00


Lingfield
2:30 Catalina's Diamond EW (1st BFSP 9.60/2.89) +4.60
3:35 Lager Time (3rd) -1.00
4:40 Devout (1st BFSP 6.20) +5.00

SUMMARY Two winners from four selections (50% SR). A risk of 4 points would return a LSP profit of +7.60 (190% ROI)

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The week started out well with the returns on the day being just shy of 100% ROI.

Contributing to yesterday was putting lines through races the night before rather than in the morning.

When I sat down with the coffee, I had already struck all of Southwell and half the races off of Carlisle and Wolverhampton so there was no need to even glance at those races.

So far, Tuesday's in February have hit the betting wallet hard.  Hopefully the stat that I am green so far in 2013 with Taunton returning 2 winners from 6 and 2 of the others returning each way dividends will help counter that.


UPDATES: Wetherby and Taunton are up.  I am passing on Southwell

WEAK FAVES FOR 19-February

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Taunton
2:30 Gilzean EW (fell/brought down) -1.00
3:40 Sametegal (3rd) -1.00

Wetherby
1:40 Quite Sparky EW (5th) -1.00
2:10 Eyre Apparent EW (UR) -1.00
2:40 Forty Crown (1st BFSP 3.16) +2.00


SUMMARY Only one winner from five selections (20% SR) in the form of well-backed Forty Crown.  A risk of 5 points would have returned a loss of -2.00 (-40% ROI)

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Both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, I went without a winning selections.

But everything turned around Wednesday evening and the week finished with 9 winners from 31 selections for a strike rate of 31%. 

Coupled with 4 each bets returning dividends, the week finished with a gain of roughly +2.00 (6% ROI).

With the holidays and some time with the family, I'm not sure if I will be posting every day this week.

UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your day and week ahead

WEAK FAVES FOR 18-February

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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Carlisle
3:15 Yesyoucan (result 1st: BFSP 4.09) +3.00
3:40 My Boy Paddy EW (UR) -1.00
4:10 Billy Cuckoo EW (1st: BFSP 8.71/3.00) +4.60

Wolverhampton
3:15 Arabian Flight EW (3rd: BFSP 10.00/2.73) +0.30
5:25 Thereabouts (unplaced) -1.00
5:55 Lager Time EW  (2nd BFSP 5.45/2.01) +0.00


SUMMARY A decent start to the week with two winners out of six selections (33% Strike rate) and two horses returning each way dividends.  A risk of 6 points would have returned a LSP profit of +5.90 (98% ROI)

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