SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, 8 selection producing two winners.  M J Woodhouse moved in from 15/2 so I wasn't alone on that one.  Three fave's were backed but the only one to win was Double Dash while Hardy Red ran a disappointing race and One Scoop Or Two was beaten by the day's gamble in the last at Wolverhampton.



UPDATES Kempton is up. Good luck this evening

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WEAK FAVES FOR 16-January

Lingfield
2:05 Maxi Dress (result: 1st BFSP 4.37)

Early Price: Maxi Dress 3.45

SUMMARY Despite the market agreeing all day with my view, Maxi Dress wins well bring January's strike rate to 1 for 5 when taking on the faves.





STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
1:00 Black Dave EW (result: 1st 8.60/2.44) +4.40
1:30 Paphos (1st BFSP 1.87) +0.85
3:10 The Strig (2nd) -1.00
3:40 Spartic (2nd) -1.00

Kempton
4:45 Saharia (2nd) -1.00
5:45 Vitznau (1st BFSP 5.30) +4.10
6:15 Woolfall Treasure EW (1st BFSP 8.20/2.55) +4.10
7:15 Awesome Rock EW (5th) -1.00

SUMMARY Four winners, two at each track (a 50% strike rate).  Three of the remainder finished 2nd.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP profit of +9.45 (118% ROI)




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Yesterday, my list of the selections were heavier than usual in faves.  5 of the 10, infact (3F Planetoid eventually going non-runner).  Two won their races but, overall, the five returned a minor loss.

I wasn't comfortable but couldn't trim it down.  Infact, one of the winners, Sweet Liberta, was added after returning to the race a third time.  Goring Two and Beware Chalk Pit were both beaten on difficult ground but I feel only the latter would have stood a chance over slightly better ground.

Tight Knit was marginally odds on.  But after looking at the race from all directions, I had the closest competitor at 6 lengths.  I reviewed yesterday's result and Tight Knit raced 12 lengths slower than its weakest run at Wolverhampton meaning Gabrial The Boss won the race without having to improve on its winning time when it raced over the course and distance in December.  Translated; the fave let down its backers.

- - - - - -

My 'weak faves' have been anything but.  I was aware that Luke Morris was on board.  Despite his sub-average performance on most of his rides at Wolverhampton back to 1-Dec, he found improvement in Hidden Link.

I'm going to continue looking for them.  Perhaps a bit of 'follower beware' when seeing them posted.



UPDATES Lingfield and Wolverhampton are up.  Good luck with your day

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WEAK FAVES FOR 15-January

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
2:00 Cuckoo Rock EW (result: 3rd BFSP 10.30/3.29) +0.65
3:05 Life Long EW (Unplaced) -1.00
3:35 Double Dash (1st BFSP 2.60) +1.50


Wolverhampton
2:20 M J Woodward EW (1st BFSP 5.86/2.19) +2.80 *had been available at 15/2 at posting
2:55 Sunrise Dance EW (3rd BFSP 6.40/2.62) +0.30
4:00 Hardy Red (3rd of 4) -1.00
5:00 Yeomanoftheguard EW (5th) -1.00
5:30 One Scoop Or Two (2nd) -1.00


SUMMARY 2 winning bets and two each way selections paying dividends returned a small profit on the day.  A risk of 8 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.25 (15% ROI)


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Last week ended with four winners from five selections on Thursday landing a 300% ROI.

The week offered up a variety of results that lead to this but it wasn't so much the winners from previous days that lead to this as much as doing post mortems on why my selections didn't fare so well against the winners on the day.

On Tuesday, I commented on my shaky confidence with all weather this year, the only winner on Monday at Kempton and Wolverhampton in the form of Lastkingofscotland.  Tuesday; 2 for 2 at Wolverhampton

On Thursday, following 6 losing selections on Wednesday, my post mortem reminded me of how I found each way selections.  I then follow up with Funky Munky winning well at 10/1.

I've accepted losses are part of the game.  But rather than looking at a loss as a red blotch in the ledger, I'm understand the importance to relook at not only the selection but at the horses that ran well, finding the clues in their form that are there for all to see.




UPDATES All selections up.  Good luck with your afternoon

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WEAK FAVES FOR 14-January


Wolverhampton
4:50 Hidden Link (result 1st BFSP 4.03)

Early Price: Hidden Link 3.30

SUMMARY Despite strong runs by the eventual 2nd and 3rd place horses, Hidden Link won despite a step up in weights and distance.  'Weak fave' stat for January is 1 for 4 successful (25% strike rate)


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:55 Muhandis (result: 2nd) -1.00
2:00 Sweet Liberta (1st BFSP 2.13) +1.00
3:30 Pairumani Prince (1st BFSP 2.78) +1.70
4:00 Mafi EW (2nd BFSP 9.08/2.59) +0.25

Plumpton
1:40 Goring Two (3rd) -1.00
2:10 Beware Chalk Pit (2nd of 3) -1.00
3:40 Hazy Bay EW (3rd) +0.25

Wolverhampton
3:20 Tight Knit (2nd) -1.00
4:50 Una Bella Cosa EW (3rd BFSP 3.75/1.49) -0.30

SUMMARY Both winners on the day were at Lingfield, the only track to make a profit on the day which, overall, had a 22% strike rate.  All three each way selections returned dividends though Una Bella Cosa moved in from 9/2+ to being co-fave at the off.  A LSP risk of 9 points would have returned a loss of -1.10 (-12% ROI)     


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I have a handful of angles that I use to look for solid each way plays. 

It stems from the approach that I use to find 'weak faves' where I find horses that are fave's but when I look over their recent race history, they didn't compete against a quality field.

While doing this, I try to find the support for the lay, as well, giving the play depth and, at the same time, will often find a value EW play.  Yesterday, it was Blue Deer which I ranked better than Captain Kendall.  On watching the race, Luke Morris knew what he had to do during the first few furlongs and achieved it and, against my ratings, improved by 2 lengths over the distance while Blue Deer raced around 1/2 length slower over the distance than I expected.  Add the two together and that is the margin between an EW at 19/2 beating your lay or your EW recouping a fraction of what you lost on a drifting fave you took on.

Another race, I missed a clear, value play. 

In the 3:25 at Doncaster, I took backed Soudain to improve slightly and add to a margin I saw over Grey Missile.  My selection did beat the Nick Scholfield horse but was 4 1/2 lengths behind the winner, Back Bob Back.

When I did the post mortem, I looked again at Back Bob Back which had been 5/1+ in the morning.  The reason for the win glared at me in a blink yet, for whatever reason, hadn't registered the night before;

On Back Bob Back's previous run at Newbury, it had finished 10th by 25 lengths.

But since the 30th of November, the horses that ran that day had raced 15 times prior to yesterday.  The results:

4 wins
4 2nds
and 3 3rds

Newbury form travels well and, when looking at races in general, the context of where a horse finished has to be put into perspective rather than looking at the number that appears in the form, in Back Bob Back's case being "10th".




UPDATES Kempton complete.  Best of luck with your evening

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WEAK FAVES FOR 10-January

None


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Catterick
1:45 Funky Munky EW (result: 1st BFSP 11.00/3.10) +6.30
2:15 Lively Baron EW(8th) -1.00

Kempton
5:45 Entitlement (1st BFSP 3.00) +2.00
6:15 Pahente EW (1st BFSP 9.20/3.06) +4.90
6:45 Lowther (1st BFSP 4.74) +3.60


SUMMARY A complete turn-around from Wednesday with 4 of 5 horses winning and only one fave selected.  A LSP risk of 5 points would have returned a profit of  +15.80 (315% ROI)




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I'll be publishing Thursday's blog around 1PM. 


UPDATES All selections are up for Kempton.  Good luck with your evening racing

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WEAK FAVES FOR 9-January

Kempton
6:10 Captain Kendall (result: 1st BFSP 4.26)

Early price: Captain Kendall 3.60


SUMMARY Captain Kendall was prominent in the race and won by 2 lengths bringing January to 1 for 3.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Doncaster
12:40 Modernism (8th) -1.00
1:40 Soudain (2nd) -1.00
3:25 Gores Island (3rd) -1.00

Kempton
6:10 Blue Deer EW (2nd BFSP 10.90/2.80) +0.40
6:40 Shauna's Spirit EW (1st BFSP 6.25/1.98) +3.00
7:10 Vale Of Lingfield EW (6th) -1.00

Lingfield
1:00 Six Of Clubs (4th) -1.00
2:05 Fast Finian (2nd) -1.00
2:40 Lincolnrose EW (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY After an 0 for 6 afternoon, a winner and a 2nd paying each way dividends salvaged a portion of the day.  A LSP risk of 9 points returned a loss of -3.60



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Last year, I was really comfortable with the all weather. 

Perhaps the new surfaces, perhaps the way the jockey's are approaching races (sectionals indicate to me that the changes in the whip rules have the jockey's ramping up the pace a bit sooner), regardless of the results, I find myself watching the races unfold and micro-scoping each moment.

- -

The year started well for my 'pursuit' of a solid strike-rate when looking for horses around 6/4 or less.  This stems from November when I found myself backing too many odds on selections and essentially breaking even when adding them up.  Both selections won their races, Benny's Mist winning by +20 lengths.

For the record, my selection for the 4:30 had been Khawatim to beat Lastkingofscotland but just before posting, it was non-runner leaving a small field for the new fave to beat after making all. 


UPDATES All selections are up (2:40).  Good luck with your day

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WEAK FAVES FOR 8-January

Chepstow
3:00 Lady Bridget (result: 1st by 3L BFSP 3.30)

Early Price: Lady Bridget 4.00


SUMMARY A tip of the hat to jockey Jack Hodson who managed to find momentum for the last two furlongs on a horse that slogged its way around for the first fourteen, winning by 2 lengths

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Chepstow
1:20 Uimhir A Seacht (result: 1st BFSP 2.70) +1.60
3:00 Old Magic EW (4th) -1.00

Leicester
12:30 Mecox Bay EW (5th) -1.00
1:35 Cool Touch (Fell tired while leading by 12 to 15 lengths) -1.00
3:15 Rouge Et Blanc (3rd) -1.00

Wolverhampton
2:50 Coastal Passage EW (1st BFSP 4.54/1.82) +2.60 *was available at 7.20 when posted
5:25 Kyllachykov EW (1st BFSP 4.00/1.67) +1.80 *was available at 5.80+ most of the afternoon

SUMMARY A second day where one of the three tracks produced no returns and ate into the positives produced at the other two.  Three winners on the day for a strike-rate of 43%.  A LSP risk of 7 points would have returned a profit of +2.00 (ROI 29%)


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Good afternoon.

I feel as though I am still washing away 2012.  Personally, I found it a year that was riddled with 'contradiction'.  I enjoyed the Olympics but it came at a time when both the UK and world economy was without any footing.  I likened it to throwing a party on the deck of the Titanic.

I spent the past week looking over the year to see if I had improved/grown as a punter.

Though a lot of the energy that goes in is to systematically filter events to find selections but I feel the key to finding a steady strike-rate and value is to focus hard on a 'mind set' that finds a balance between read, knowledge and intuition.  So improving those characteristics is the goal for the year ahead.

For now, it's a Monday and will find more time to write later in the week.

Best of luck with your year ahead.


UPDATES All selections now up (2:50)

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WEAK FAVES FOR 7-January

Kempton
1:55 Liliana (result: 3rd)

Early Prices: Liliana 4.70

SUMMARY Only one 'weak fave' selection on the day which was a successful start for January, Liliana finishing 3rd by 5 lengths



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
1:25 Bloodsweatandtears EW (result: 5th) -1.00
3:30 Moderator (7th of 8) -1.00
4:30 Lastkingofscotland (1st BFSP 2.66) +1.50


Tauntan
2:10 Orabora EW (3rd BFSP 5.80/1.69) -0.15
3:10 Tornado In Milan EW (2nd BFSP 5.66/2.33) +0.15
3:40 Benny's Mist (1st BFSP 2.36) +1.30

Wolverhampton
3:20 Koo And The Gang EW (6th) -1.00

SUMMARY A mix of results on the day.  All three horses returned dividends at Taunton with Benny's Mist winning by the biggest margin of the Monday meeting (22 lengths).  The only success on the all weather courses was the 'consistent' Lastkingofscotland.  A LSP risk of 7 points would have returned a loss of -0.20




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I will be posting a few days between now and Christmas.  However, the 'writer' is taking an early vacation.


UPDATES Selections are complete for the day

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WEAK FAVES FOR 19-December

Lingfield
12:30 Reginald Claude (result: 1st BFSP 5.00)

Early Prices: Reginald Claude 4.60

SUMMARY Reginald Claude broke from the pack and won by a shoulder over Putin (the EW selection for the race) but a length and a half ahead of the rest of the pack. 


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:00 Johnny Skull EW (result: 5th) -1.00
12:30 Putin EW (2nd BFSP 8.30/2.54) +.25
3:10 Ajeeb EW (3rd BFSP 5.00/1.98) +.00
3:45 English Summer (1st BFSP 2.43) +1.30


Ludlow
3:15 Floral Spinner (2nd) -1.00

Newbury
12:50 High Kite EW (5th by 60+ lengths) -1.00

SUMMARY Lingfield returned a small profit on the day but despite only two selections at the other meetings, the day returned a small loss.  A LSP risk of 6 points would have returned a loss of -1.50 (-25% ROI)


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UPDATES All selections are up.  Good luck with your day

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WEAK FAVES FOR 18-December


Lingfield
1:20 Glastonberry (result: 2nd)

EARLY PRICES: Glastonbury 3.30

SUMMARY Glastonbury was joint-fave at the off after drifting to 3/1 and lost by a neck.  Strike rate for December now 10 for 13 (77%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK


Folkestone
3:00 Artic Night EW (unplaced) -1.00


Lingfield
12:20 Ishi (1st BFSP 4.52) +3.30
12:50 Persian Marvel EW (7th) -1.00
1:50 Mother Jones EW (5th) -1.00
3:20 Lastkingofscotland (2nd) -1.00

SUMMARY A strike rate of 1 for 4 at Lingfield still offers a small return with Ishi winnig at 3/1+.  Artic Night was pulled up in the final stages but was never able to keep pace with the contenders.  A LSP risk of 5 points would have returned a loss of -0.70 (-14%)

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Last week finished by giving back the gains made earlier in the week. 

Over the years, I'm used to the 'plateau's' that betting brings.  One moment, you are making steady gains over two days.  Next week, you have spikes looking like a shark's tooth that chews away at the recent success you had.

It's just a few days left before taking a well earned break from the pixels.  The focus will be to make the most out of each event I take on, whether it be taking on the fave or finding the back in the race that will offer the better return against the risk.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 17-December

Plumpton
3:35 Little Roxy (3rd of 7)

EARLY PRICES: Little Roxy 3.20

SUMMARY The one selection on the day panned out as expected with Little Roxy finishing third despite market support saying otherwise. The strike rate for December is now 9 for 12 (75%)


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

PLUMPTON
1:30 Ace Fighter Pilot (result: 1st BFSP 2.35) +1.30
2:00 Brunettesonly (pulled up) -1.00
3:05 Ballyman (1st BFSP 2.07) +1.00

Wolverhampton
1:55 Elijah Pepper EW (result: 4th) -1.00
2:55 Makin' (1st BFSP 4.83) +3.70
4:25 Walter White (4th of 5) -1.00

SUMMARY With testing conditions, backing three horses below 6/4 was a bit of a risk.  But two for three won their races returning a 75% ROI at the track.  Wolverhampton had a strike rate of 1 for 3 but the winning selection was a 7/2 shot opposing the fave return, again, a decent ROI.  A LSP risk of 6 points would have returned +3.00 (50% ROI)

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