SHAPESHIFTER

Last week ended with four winners from five selections on Thursday landing a 300% ROI.

The week offered up a variety of results that lead to this but it wasn't so much the winners from previous days that lead to this as much as doing post mortems on why my selections didn't fare so well against the winners on the day.

On Tuesday, I commented on my shaky confidence with all weather this year, the only winner on Monday at Kempton and Wolverhampton in the form of Lastkingofscotland.  Tuesday; 2 for 2 at Wolverhampton

On Thursday, following 6 losing selections on Wednesday, my post mortem reminded me of how I found each way selections.  I then follow up with Funky Munky winning well at 10/1.

I've accepted losses are part of the game.  But rather than looking at a loss as a red blotch in the ledger, I'm understand the importance to relook at not only the selection but at the horses that ran well, finding the clues in their form that are there for all to see.




UPDATES All selections up.  Good luck with your afternoon

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WEAK FAVES FOR 14-January


Wolverhampton
4:50 Hidden Link (result 1st BFSP 4.03)

Early Price: Hidden Link 3.30

SUMMARY Despite strong runs by the eventual 2nd and 3rd place horses, Hidden Link won despite a step up in weights and distance.  'Weak fave' stat for January is 1 for 4 successful (25% strike rate)


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:55 Muhandis (result: 2nd) -1.00
2:00 Sweet Liberta (1st BFSP 2.13) +1.00
3:30 Pairumani Prince (1st BFSP 2.78) +1.70
4:00 Mafi EW (2nd BFSP 9.08/2.59) +0.25

Plumpton
1:40 Goring Two (3rd) -1.00
2:10 Beware Chalk Pit (2nd of 3) -1.00
3:40 Hazy Bay EW (3rd) +0.25

Wolverhampton
3:20 Tight Knit (2nd) -1.00
4:50 Una Bella Cosa EW (3rd BFSP 3.75/1.49) -0.30

SUMMARY Both winners on the day were at Lingfield, the only track to make a profit on the day which, overall, had a 22% strike rate.  All three each way selections returned dividends though Una Bella Cosa moved in from 9/2+ to being co-fave at the off.  A LSP risk of 9 points would have returned a loss of -1.10 (-12% ROI)     


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