SHAPESHIFTER

Wednesday's racing started with Franklin Roosevelt reminding A P McCoy who's actually in charge when it refused at the first.  I had gone into the play pretty confident that the Pipe horse would be able to handle the field over a distance that was 15% less than its recent runs over trying conditions.

When I ran the time, the eventual winner Lough Coi had run an improved time over its previous outings by a solid 2 lengths per furlong.  So if the fave and jockey had remained in partnership, they would have had a true test on their hands.

With the 3:30, I thought I had found a decent each way opportunity with Ballyoliver to beat the well supported Buddy Bolero.  This wasn't so much a slight at the fave but I had to go with how I read the race and I thought that there would be several challengers for the McCoy/Pipe partnership but it never went that way, the winning distance an impressive 12 furlongs.

Last night with Kempton, I walked away at 4:30.  I haven't even looked at the results against my notes.  Like driving a car through the night, sometimes best just to pull over and rest.

I continue to 'regroup' on the 'weak faves' but find myself preparing for the flats season in a little over ten weeks time.  This means dusting off notes and updating standard times for each track which takes around three hours per course.



UPDATE No selections for the evening.  I am off on Friday.


WEAK FAVES FOR 31-January

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
2:00 Mick Dundee (result: 1st BFSP 2.10) +1.05
3:00 Valdaw (1st BFSP 2.37) +1.20
3:30 Norfolk Sky (1st BFSP 6.00) +4.80
4:30 Jack My Boy (1st BFSP 3.30) +2.20

Towcester
2:20 South Stack EW (2nd BFSP 6.10/1.52) -0.50

Wincanton
3:10 Pentiffic EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY A great day at Lingfield landing 4 for 4 winners and finding three of the four faves that won at the track.  4 for 6 (25% strike rate) and one each way returning part of the investment. A risk of 6 points would return a profit of +7.75 (125% ROI)


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If you take yesterday's three unsuccessful win bets and combine their distances behind the winners, you get a total of three and a half lengths. 

Three and a half lengths translates to roughly seven tenths of a second. 

An example of where the day returns a loss but the read was not that far off of having a 'green' afternoon.


UPDATE I will be passing on Kempton tonight to return rested for Thursday.  Have a good evening



WEAK FAVES FOR 30-January


none


Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Leicester
2:00 Franklin Roosevelt (result: refused at 1st) -1.00
3:00 Topaze Collonges EW (unplaced) -1.00
3:30 Ballyoliver EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:30 Arthur's Pass (1st BFSP 2.77) +1.65

SUMMARY Only 1 for 4 on the day.  Risk of 4 points would have returned a LSP loss of -1.35

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Yesterday didn't feel right from the very first race.  As much as January has been a successful month including a string of 6 days with the balance increasing at the end of the day, there are times when this game makes you feel like a football manager who is sitting on the bench and realizing that your 'read' on the match of hand was off and it was just a matter of time till the opposition scored then scored again.

That said, looking at the results, I could see that my 'approach' at both tracks was, well consistently off when judging the field with all the selections to win coming in 3rd while one each-way made the frame but two finished 4th.

This, I think, came down to too much weight on 'cross-collateral form' with performances at other all weather tracks. 

I've fallen into this before with all-weather, especially when horses do well at Lingfield or Wolverhampton and then find themselves running opposite to what they are used to.

Hopefully enough notes and form on Wolverhampton today to make up for yesterday's 'consistently' lack-luster day.

UPDATE All selections are up.  Good luck with your day.


WEAK FAVES FOR 29-January



Wolverhampton
none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Wolverhampton
2:30 Climaxfortackle (result: 1st BFSP 3.75) +2.60
3:30 West End Lad (2nd) -1.00
4:00 Pategonia (2nd) -1.00
4:30 Kyllachykov EW (13th/13) -1.00
5:00 Bitaphon (3rd) -1.00

SUMMARY A second day with a negative result overall.  Only one of three fave's selected won their race while the EW selection had a laboured outing and was never in the race.  A risk of 5 points would have returned a loss of -1.40 (-28% ROI)

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I only played three days last week but managed to find 5 winners from 11 selections for a solid return of 80%. 


UPDATE All selections are up.  Good luck with your day and the week ahead.


WEAK FAVES FOR 28-January

Kempton
none

Wolverhampton
none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
1:50 Hurricane Spirit (result: 3rd) -1.00
2:50 If You Whisper EW (4th) -1.00
3:50 Great Ormond (3rd) -1.00
4:20 Brimstone Hill (3rd) -1.00


Wolverhampton
1:40 Michaels Nook EW (4th) -1.00
3:40 Restless Bay EW (3rd BFSP 6.80/2.22) +0.10
5:10 Rosie's Lady (3rd) -1.00 *drifted to an EW price of 5/1 before the off

SUMMARY Seven selections on the day but a read that produced only one each-way returning the wager.  The consecutive days with a positive result comes to an end at 6.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a loss of -6.00. 

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The week produced a great run on the all-weather with 5 winners from 11 selections returning a 82% ROI.

The average price of the winners was just shy of 3/1.

I was pleased with the each way selections.  5 during the week produced 3 winners and one in the frame.

There were no selections for the Wednesday meeting at Ayr which I passed on after feeling the ground was running sloggier and stickier than 'soft'.

I continued with a sabbatical on 'weak faves' though continue to make notes on runners for future selections.

Stats to 24-January

OVERALL
Eleven days of selections

SELECTIONS: 71
WINS: 25
STRIKE RATE: 35%
EW'S PLACING: 10
LSP PROFIT: 34.05
ROI: 48%

NOTE: This week's stats include two corrections.  As of last week, 9, not 10 horses had returned EW dividends.  As well, A loss of -0.30 on Una Bella had been entered as -3.00, thus a correction of +2.70 reflected in the totals for 'overall' and 'all weather'
All the profit has come from the all weather:


ALL-WEATHER THIS WEEK
Three days of selections

SELECTIONS: 11
WINS: 5
STRIKE RATE: 45%
EW'S PLACING: 1
LSP PROFIT: 9.10
ROI: 82%




This blog is published Monday to Friday around noon each day.  For evening racing, it is updated around 4PM



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When looking at the horses, I don't look at the stats of the trainers and jockeys until I have selected the horse.  Too many times we are influenced by the 'big name trainers' or the jockey's that are reliable.

Once I have a horse in my sights, I will take a look at the numbers for the jockey and trainer but I also have my own notes that I give more weight than those offered by the racing post or timeform sites.

Also, I sit down in the evening before and follow up in the morning, I avoid the headlines. These, too, can offer up unwanted influence when looking at the card.

Yesterday, I found a value EW play with Broxbourne.  When I went over the numbers, a cross-collateral form, I ranked the horse equal to Comedy House's previous run at Kempton but this was Lingfield and the price was double that of the 2F pointing to value.

You need to sometimes then ask 'why' a price was the way it was.  And it seemed to be because it was a Mark Johnson horse who, statistically and, moreso because of the racing media, was on the 'cold list'.

But when I looked at Broxbourne's performance, both during and before M J's soft results, the runs were solid and comparable to those of Comedy House who was 2F and at half the price.

Perhaps if Broxbourne had been at the front of the market and the prices were tight, I would have shied away but after grinding the numbers, the bet was value and, in this case, the media and public's view on the trainer's performance had made the price attractive (Remember a few years ago when the chant was "Follow the money when it's on one of Barney's" and suddenly no other runner in the race mattered?).

Part of what makes me think outside the crowd is that too many times I found a horse on paper and the price and/or headlines dampened my enthusiasm for the play. 

UPDATE All selections are up for Kempton.  Good luck with your evening.


WEAK FAVES FOR 24-January

Kempton

none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
5:05 Vale Of Lingfield EW (result 4th) -1.00
7:05 Dorback EW (3rd BFSP 4.54/1.54) -0.25 *available at 6/1 earlier in the evening
7:35 Lucky Mark EW (1st BFSP 4.71/2.01) +2.25 *available at 6/1+ earlier in the evening

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A day away from the track yesterday with too many distractions both Monday night and Tuesday morning to allow me a to take a clear look at the racing.

Monday's weather left just one track with racing.  Three plays at Wolverhampton returned a small profit when Maypole Joe ran better than expected.  My each way call on Follow The Flag was weighted too heavily on its previous run which was one of its best to date.



UPDATES After a great afternoon, passing on Kempton this evening.  Good luck with your selections

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WEAK FAVES FOR 23-January

none

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK


LINGFIELD
1:00 Paphos (result: 1st BFSP 2.62) +1.60
2:00 Story Writer (2nd) -1.00
2:30 Broxbourne EW (1st BFSP 8.80/2.72) +4.50
3:00 Muhandis (3rd) -1.00
3:30 Al's Memory (1st BFSP 4.52) +3.40

SUMMARY 5 selections on the day lands 3 winners.  A risk of 5 points would have returned a LSP profit of +7.50 (150% ROI)


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So far this month, a steady number of races paying dividends. 

Today, we'll ease into the week with some selections on the afternoon's only card.

Overall, though, I have no interest in battling nature when it comes down to searching for winners.  The weather out there gives a new dimension to 'going' and will make the week ahead challenging as horses and jockey's cut through the cold, breathing in chill and moisture.

Good luck with your day and the week ahead.

UPDATES All selections are posted.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 21-January

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK
3:05 Sohcahtoa (Result: 4th) -1.00
3:35 Maypole Joe EW (1st BFSP 5.60/1.85) +2.60
5:35 Follow The Flag EW (5th) -1.00


SUMMARY Only one card managed to beat the weather.  Maypole Joe made all under Graham Gibbons. One winner from three selections today (33% strike rate). A risk of 3 points would have returned a LSP profit of +0.60 (20% ROI)


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While my ability to find 'weak faves' has gone the way of the weather (1 for 5 for January (20% strike rate)), my selections to back have been turning a steady profit to the mid-way point of January.

Stats to 17-January
8 days of selections

OVERALL
SELECTIONS: 60
WINS: 19
STRIKE RATE: 32%
EW'S PLACING: 10
LSP PROFIT: 22.25
ROI: 37%

All the profit has come from the all weather:


ALL-WEATHER
SELECTIONS: 40
WINS: 16
STRIKE RATE: 40%
EW'S PLACING: 6
LSP PROFIT: 23.50
ROI: 59%

This means from the races over obstacles, I've produced a "break-even" performance consisting of 3 wins from 20 (15%) while 4 each-way selections placed and paid dividends.  I had only one faller which was Cool Touch who was leading at the time but extremely tired.

Overall, 13 of the 60 (22%) came in 2nd.  5 of those were over obstacles showing the fine line between profit and loss.

The biggest price winner so far this month was on 10-January with Funky Munky drifting out to 10/1 before the off.

10-January was also my best day of the month when 5 selections produced +15.00 while I managed to keep my worst to just -3.60 (1 winner from 9 on 9-January).

Behind the scenes, I continue to learn from my losses and improving on my check list for 'rules of engagement'. And despite stinging myself by backing Syrian last night at evens, I'm spending my time looking at races where the fave's are going off at 5/2 or better when looking for backs.

Hopefully it will continue through the balance of the month and into the year.


This blog is published Monday to Friday around noon each day.  For evening racing, it is updated around 4PM



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Wednesday saw a 50% strike rate for the 8 selections returning 115%.  With the exception of Pathos, for once the value and prices remained right up to the off.

Adam Kirby had a winner at each track and I was on each of them (Black Dave and Vitznau). 

The success at Kempton came down to going through the entire card then looking for the four I felt were strongest.  The only one where I felt I misread was Saharia who lost to Hurricane Spirit by 1 3/4 lengths.  The winners jockey, Nicole Nordblad, is a name to remember and improved on the horses previous times. 

---------

My selections for 'weak faves' has gone tilt.  The race I took on had little form but I thought improvement would come on two or three of the others.  The market agreed with me and the price drifted all day but Maxi Dress won easily.

I'm not going to 'fight the current' right now.  Too much good is going on in my world and will focus my time on finding winners.

Behind the scenes, some 'paper selections' plus looking back over the last eight months to find the races I am strongest on and will focus on them.  So, again, the lays come with a heavy health warning if you see them.


UPDATES All selections are up

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WEAK FAVES FOR 17-January

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Wincanton
1:50 Curtain Razer EW (result: 9th) -1.00
2:20 Ballyallia Man (1st BFSP 3.38) +2.30
2:50 Dusky Bob (7th of 8) -1.00
3:50 There's No Panic (4th of 5) -1.00

Wolverhampton
6:00 Rakticate EW (2nd BFSP 12.00/2.57) +0.25
6:30 Syrian (4th) -1.00
7:00 Desert Vision EW (1st BFSP 6.00/1.75) +2.80

SUMMARY One of two tracks in profit today.  A risk of 7 points would have returned a LSP profit of +1.35 (19% ROI)



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