SHAPESHIFTER

Wednesday's racing started with Franklin Roosevelt reminding A P McCoy who's actually in charge when it refused at the first.  I had gone into the play pretty confident that the Pipe horse would be able to handle the field over a distance that was 15% less than its recent runs over trying conditions.

When I ran the time, the eventual winner Lough Coi had run an improved time over its previous outings by a solid 2 lengths per furlong.  So if the fave and jockey had remained in partnership, they would have had a true test on their hands.

With the 3:30, I thought I had found a decent each way opportunity with Ballyoliver to beat the well supported Buddy Bolero.  This wasn't so much a slight at the fave but I had to go with how I read the race and I thought that there would be several challengers for the McCoy/Pipe partnership but it never went that way, the winning distance an impressive 12 furlongs.

Last night with Kempton, I walked away at 4:30.  I haven't even looked at the results against my notes.  Like driving a car through the night, sometimes best just to pull over and rest.

I continue to 'regroup' on the 'weak faves' but find myself preparing for the flats season in a little over ten weeks time.  This means dusting off notes and updating standard times for each track which takes around three hours per course.



UPDATE No selections for the evening.  I am off on Friday.


WEAK FAVES FOR 31-January

None

Early Price:



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
2:00 Mick Dundee (result: 1st BFSP 2.10) +1.05
3:00 Valdaw (1st BFSP 2.37) +1.20
3:30 Norfolk Sky (1st BFSP 6.00) +4.80
4:30 Jack My Boy (1st BFSP 3.30) +2.20

Towcester
2:20 South Stack EW (2nd BFSP 6.10/1.52) -0.50

Wincanton
3:10 Pentiffic EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY A great day at Lingfield landing 4 for 4 winners and finding three of the four faves that won at the track.  4 for 6 (25% strike rate) and one each way returning part of the investment. A risk of 6 points would return a profit of +7.75 (125% ROI)


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