Pinza

WEDNESDAY July 23rd
3.20 Catt: Midlander. Ran over shorter dist LTO whilst stayed on FTO over 6f. This distance may suit it. Was top speed in entry for todays Sandown maiden but comes here instead. With no previous winners in todays race and ridden for first time by Joe Fanning it must have a great chance.

4.20 Catt: Cruise Tothelimit
4.50 Catt: Hazard Warning

4.00 Ling: Panther Patrol
5.00 Ling: Red Passiflora

6.05 Sand: Black Minstrel
6.35 Sand: Alketios
8.20 Sand: Meetings Man

.........................................


TUESDAY July 22nd 2014
2.00 Muss: Testa Rossa unpl
3.00 Muss: Windforpower WON 5/2f
3.30 Muss: Eileen Mor unpl
4.00 Muss: Salvatore Fury 3rd
4.30 Muss: Maoi Chinn Tire 2nd 5/4f

6.10 Carl: Terentun Star WON 1/4f
6.40 Carl: Kirtling Belle unpl
8.40 Carl: Sugar Town 2nd 4/1
9.10 Carl: Lilly Junior unpl

JUDGEMENT RESERVED:
2.30 Muss: Henrytheaeroplane 2nd 8/11f (debutant runners)
3.30 Muss: Valentino Oyster WON 4/1(the other qualifier with CD preferred)
4.30 Muss: Voice From Above unpl (other qualifier preferred)
5.00 Muss: Running Reef  unpl and Ixelles Diamond 3rd(undecided)

7.10 Carl: La Havrese  3rd
7.40 Carl: Gotcha unpl and Muhawalah WON 5/4f
8.10 Carl: Naoise 3rd
8.40 Carl: Mrs Warren unpl (other qualifier just preferred)




MONDAY July 21st 2014
3.20 Ayr: Taurus Twins  UNPL 10/3f
6.45 Bev: Cadeaux Pearl UNPL AND Mey Blossom 3rd 8/1
7.55 Winds: Mission Approved 3rd 6/5f
8.45 Bev: Rainbow Rock WON 7/4f

JUDGEMENT RESERVED:
2.15 Ayr My dream Boat (Days)2nd
4.25 Ayr Uplifted (days)UNPL
4.55 Ayr Le Chat D'or (days)UNPL

6.15 BEV Elizabeth Flynn (Race type)2nd 5/4f
7.15 Bev Heska WON 5/1 AND Ice Mayden UNPL(race type & grade)
7.45 Bev Mr McLaren (race type)3rd 9/4f
8.15 Bev Kirkman (race type & grade)WON 3/1

6.25 Winds Mystic And Artist (days) 2nd 5/2f
6.55 Winds Mount Shamsan (days) NON RUNNER
7.25 Winds Balmoral Castle (days)WON 6/1
8.25 Winds Unison  NON RUNNER

Race started as Listed event 1990 and upgraded to Group 3 2009.
24 past races
16 past winners ran at Royal Ascot; 12 of those ran in 2 mile Vase (all LTO)
Only two won the Vase and that was 1990 and 1991.
4 ran in Derby - three Epsom and other Rome. One of the 3 Epsom ran in Vase after.
7 ran in recognised derby TRIAL race (5 of those in last six years)and only one did not run Ascot or Derby.

The TRIAL element is interesting because it shows a recent shift in trends.
John Gosden has won the race on four occasions, and the last three runnings.
His 2012 winner hadn't achieved much and only won it's maiden on latest start, BUT it did finish 2nd in Lingfield Derby TRIAL. Other than that race one could have discarded it from winner calculations.

9 winners won a maiden race as 2yo. Two of those achieved a further 2yo win (Ccon & GP3)
5 never ran as 2yo.

9 ran in maiden race two races previous - 7 won, 1 won mdn race LTO and other won Vase as a maiden.
20 of 24 winners ran a maximum of 6 times prior to this race. The maximum number of runs is 10 (Same as Hartnell).



Forever Now; Just maiden runs for this one. Two winners have won this with just 3 runs, but both had 2 wins. J Gosden won it with a mdn only winner 2012 but that had ran 2nd in Derby trial.

Hartnell: Came good in Vase and is a possible. The lack of Vase winner since race began and number of runs puts me off.

The Corsican; No horse has won with just 2 runs.

Vent De Force; A handicapper. Five winners had mainly raced in and  won hcps. 1995 was last time a horse won that had won over 14f.

Windshear; Another handicapper but higher grades than above. Two winners came from King George Hcp both were placed (2nd & 3rd)

Looking at the race today and comparing the stats I went for BUNKER and HONOR BOUND (filly)
A filly has only won the race twice 2000 & 2001 and both were handicappers!

BUNKER now a none runner and ODEON replaces it as alternative

RESULT;
Wht a palavar of a race. Main selections both withdrawn and latter at the start. That would have handed the race to Hartnell (winner) on stats.

Just the one race examined today.
1.30 HAYDOCK
Comparing last 14 Haydock races around this time of year and identifying number of races won, distances etc etc.
The speed has shown up quite well in the 2 years 2012-2013 since I started recording.

Age; past winners tend to be 5yo & 6yo (10 of the 14)
4yo's follow with 3 wins and jusy 1 win for an ageing 8yo.

9 winners won over Distance
apart from that the winners have won over 7f or 9f (the latter maybe 8.5 on AW)

By an excel process to compare winner v runners it says the most wins from past winners ends at 6 wins
Today there are 5 runners that exceed that figure.
It is rare to find a past winner with class B (2) win - just Albaqaa 2013. Today we have 4 runners with such wins, and 6 runners over the normal win age (4-6yo's)


I'm ignoring the older runners and just taking two to bet for the win.
Eurystheus
Exzachary

RESULT UPDATE;
The Top weight 8yo Dubai Hills won 4/1
Eurytheus was 4th (fav)


2.05 HAYDOCK
Astonished in this with dangers Freedom's Light & Special Meaning

I point out that neither are in the speed set up though.

Not much doing today except putting a daily blog together.
The R.P supplies the race titles and I've entered them up to June 9th.
Raceform Interactive supplies the 10 year trends and speed figures and those are put in against the race daily.
My own d/base provides last 12 years winners data and notes and they are input with distance wins and numbers and notes.
It's an overall mammoth task to take, but should make it easy for future years.

Todays movers
2.30 Towbee (forecast 7/1) into 11/4 fav
2.40 Marmalady (still fav but has dropped from 10/3 to 2/1
3.00 Native Heart 7/1 into 7/2 jt fav with non mover Belayer (f/cast 7/2)
3.10 Olivers Mount (f/cast 2/1 fav) now 5/1 but still fav. Money for
The Happy Hammer (14/1 to 11/1) and Princes Spirit (14's into 10)
3.40 Goodwood Storm 10/1 into 11/4 fav ***
5.0 Silver Page (f/c 15/8) now 4/5
5.10 Placidia halved in price (5/1 to 5/2) and jt fav with Potent Embrace
5.40 Grayswood (9/4 2nd fav)now 9/4 fav but original fav Ssafa 2/2 out to 9/2

It's just an experiment today
The horses that appear well backed

1 Haydock 23rd May - 14:00 Backing: Luck of The Game @ SP (3rd)
2 Haydock 23rd May - 14:30 Backing: Winslow @ SP  (WON)
3 Haydock 23rd May - 16:15 Backing: Crowleys Law @ SP (WON)
4 Yarmouth 23rd May - 14:10 Backing: Johara @ SP  (WON)
5 Pontefract 23rd May - 20:30 Backing: Chortle @ SP 
6 Musselburgh 23rd May - 19:10 Backing: Here Now And Why @ SP 
7 Musselburgh 23rd May - 20:40 Backing: Twin Appeal @ SP WON


REVIEW.
Just another experiment in trying to find the winners.
Sucessful?
Partly. 4 winners from 7 selections.
The bets were placed by win accumulators - 4 winners, 5 winners and 7 winners. The end result was a loss of £2. In hindsight perhaps one should start with Trebles.

It's based upon Newspaper favourites and checking Betfair prices after 11am to see if ...
A; Both newspaper and betfairs prices are both still favourite.
B; A new favoutite has appeared on the Betfair price and the newspaper forecast favourite is no longer the lowest in betting.
C; Any other horse has dropped dramatically and is competing for favourite.

It has been noted that some trainers have more than one market mover.
P Kirby's Rocky Two (6.10 Musselburgh) dropped from 5/1 and ended up 9/4f and won.
His other mover Here, Now And Why (7.10) dropped considerably from 8/1 to jt fav, but was unplaced.

Similarly on Tuesday Michael Dods runner, Dartrix, was heavily backed from 14/1 and was unplaced, whilst another runner Muharrer was forecast at 10/1 and won at 4/1fav. A third runner Beat The Tide (4/1) ended up 6/4 fav and finished 3rd.

It has often been the case that trainers who have market movers manage to get a winner on the day.

Small fields are probably best avoided, certainly on the evidence of Three runner races. 

The recent weather causing several withdrawals will also play havoc with prices and probably best to avoid those days.

4.25 Lupe Stakes (now Height of Fashion)
Generally you need a filly that has ran in listed or group race.

Qualifiers.....

Jordan Princess (fav)

Uchenna
This has ran in Group 1 race and although behind Jordan Princess could improve

Secret Pursuit. This one may have too many runs as 3yo, as no winner since 1982 has had more than 3 runs in current year and the only winner with three runs was a dead heat (2006)

Psychometry. Probably held by Secret Pursuit

RESULT UPDATE
Marsh Daisy won
That makes her the fifth winner who didn't run as 2yo. (since 1982)

Not much doing yesterday. Laid Mary Mcphee on basis of the Hills record in 2yo mdn fills at Warwick, and watched Roger Charltons Saxon Princess lose as favourite in 3yo hcp at Bath.
As mentioned previously he doesn't do well in the lower grade hcps this month, but alarm bells over the stable form continues.

Today sees Frangipanni try to follow up her win at Lingfield (AW) 22 days ago. She was given a lot to do that day, but at 4/5 fav it might have been an easy race for her - as his first hcp after three unplaced runs as 2yo.

The form has been franked by the 3rd horse that day winning at Brighton, however the 2nd was well beaten at Southwell.

Checking Charlton d/base it seems he has never had a horse that did back to back wins on AW in 3yo hcp's - although Acrobatic (2006) won 3yo hcp and followed up with 3yo+ hcp.
This year shows an improvement in hcp wins at Lingfield AW (4) which matches his number of previous wins since he took over from Jeremy Tree.

It's not one I would want to take on today as a lay, but nor would I back it.

RESULT UPDATE
Frangipanni unplaced (5th) 5/2 fav

Well a gardening day yesterday meant missing out on two Dascombe winners. Cape Rosso was a pick at Chester when withdrawn (and later withdrawn at another meeting)and Art of War - which had a good chance of winning. The put off was trainer record when sending four runners to a northern meeting.

Todays another day and Michael Stoute is making up for a lack lustre two years during 2012-2013.

Joe Doyle rides BRAGGING for the owner instead of riding a Roger Charlton runner at Leicester - Continental Drift.

I have no qualms about BRAGGING as Stoute record in May with maiden fillies is very good. Windsor is one of his speciality tracks for running two fillies in same race but that doesn't apply today.

Continental Drift hasn't had a run this year so is one to ignore today.

RESULT UPDATE
Bragging 1st 7/4f

Continental Drift unpl - as expected, but slight concern over Roger Charltons form of late.

Still going with yesterdays theme - Roger Charlton 3yo hcp May month

Today.
NMKT 3.30
Has two runners in this race the Coral Sprint trophy.
He has won it twice in last 12 years (Genki and Mince)
Both those ran after 14 days like Stars Above Me today
The selection is a filly (like Mince).

The other runner Stomp is not without chance, as Borehan (2006) was a maiden as 2yo and then won two races prior to Coral win. Boreham had 21 days rest and Stomp only has 8 days (lowest in last 12 years was 10)

On the balance that 8 of the last 12 winners had only won as 2yo's I prefer Stars Above Me - and I'm not keen on apprentice jockeys in these valuable races.

The dangers could come from the previous race though.
Eastern Impact and Meritocracy.
I'm ruling out the winner Nova Champ on basis that only one past winner had won both as 2yo & 3yo. (last 12 years)

RESULT UPDATE
Eastern Impact won 14/1 Just beat Charlton's other runner Stomp and well overturned form with disappointing Stars Above Me. (The too few runs for latter probably voided her chances)

Been away for a nice break.
It's good to get away and come back with a clear head.

I've been waiting for Roger Charlton and 3yo hcp races during May.
Today he runs Hooded in 4.10 Newbury

Looking back at his winners in this type of race (3yo hcp) in May months trainer has got a fair strike rate in all grades (class) except the two lower (5 & 6)

The jockey today in not the normal choice, and his regulars Joe Doyle rides at York for same owner, whilst George Baker is at Newbury and rides Captain Marmalade in the first race for Charlton.

That starts the warning sign and there are a few more.
Long Break runners don't have such a good record, and Newbury has only provided one winner (Al Kazeem) from at least eight runners.

The only thing going is the owner has had two previous winners with Charlton in race type in May 2013 and Derwent was a long break runner.

The stake has dropped from 10 points to 1 point though.