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FLAT RACING

AW Friday Jan 16th

16 Jan 15 11:01
Pretty straight forward today as no joint tops.
12.50: El Che 14
Chance as good as any in this maiden and Trainer won recent maiden.

1.20: Sabre Rock 7 6xt
Going for a fourth win on trot.

1.50: Precision Five 149 p
This has had a long break

2.25: Meddling 37

2.55: Anglophile 27
Has best RPR& TS.Those are a BIG plus in these races and Appleby has as good record with this strategy. A Pro Bet.

3.30: Pearl Blue 28
Osbourne runs two in this and the other Amadeus Wolf is Next Best on the scores.
PB entered in B conditions race at Kempa and a Seller in next few days. She is really a 5f specialist but unused to racing at this time of year.

4.00: Mighty Mambo 34J tp
A national hunt run latest. That is OK for a race of this distance.

4.15: Little Choosey 8 6xtb
Trying to follow up recent win,like Boboli Gardens last night, and this has the advantage of C&D win

4.45: Arashi 7 v
An older runner but this age group is OK at this distance

5.15: Solar Deity 21 p
This is possibly another Pro Bet as it has the RPR & TS in it's favour

5.45: Harwoods Star 4 t
Wary of lack of track or distance win

6.15: Little Lord Nelson 14 t
A maiden win at the track on latest run. Beat El Che our first race of day.

6.45: Symbolic Star 257
A low priced Long break horse. Always risky in these maidens.

They are not all going to win but would expect some will today
More research to do but there's the housework, shopping and banking to do.

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AW Thursday Jan 15th

15 Jan 15 17:18
Not a very interesting meeting today
top    Horse                days
4.25     Hell Of A Lord 7 p

5.00Jt    Elhaam 10
5.00Jt    Mandy Layla 7

5.35    Street Artist 14

6.10    Naval Action 10 6xb

6.40Jt    Berlusca 19
6.40Jt    Warfare 7 6x

7.10    Piccolo Express 13
7.10nb    Boboli Gardens 8 6x

Update
Been doing some research.
5.00 Not keen on either and rate Barbs Princess as best.

7.10 These races tend to be won by a horse that has a recent placing.
That gives the top seven to pick from!
Boboli Gardens carries a penalty. From a list of past winners of this grade race 7 won with a penalty but 6 had a Course win or CD to their credit. Whilst Boboli G is top weight  (Like 6 of the 7 winners) he only has a distance win - Only 1 winner in 9 qualifying races.
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AW Weds Jan 14th

14 Jan 15 17:43
LINGA
12.50 LA ESTRELLA
1.20  JAGANORY
1.55  DAT IL DO (fillies have a poor record though)
2.25  NANCY ASTOR
3.00  PETERHOUSE
3.35  . Three top
4.10  SPOWARTICUS

4.35  No Selection
5.10  Bosstime  (not keen on this)
5.40  THOMAS BLOSSOM
6.10  HILL OF DREAMS
6.40  HAWKSBURY
7.10  AYE AYE SKIPPER

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AW Tuesday 13th Jan

13 Jan 15 22:47
Todays Tops
1.15; Novalist 25 b
1.45; Eium Mac 7 b (2nd)
2.15; Excelling Oscar 25 b
2.50; Marilyn Mon 41 (3rd)
3.25; Scarborough 31 (Joint) (won)
3.25; Oriental Relation 9 b (Joint)
4.00; Canadian Diamond 26 hp1

Comments;
1.15
Madam Mirasol;   No top weight that was top  Racing Post Rating has won a class 6 hcp this year. Six have failed (including Harwoods Star yesterday)

Queen of Skies, joint top weight, has RPR highest (TS) speed figure.
Similar factors show no winners from five races at Southwell during Dec and so far this year.

Novalist: Not confident with the two recent wins. Past records show better if won last two races.


1.45
Eium Mac:  Attempt to be the third class6  hcp winner of year that is top RPR rated.

37 others  have  failed to  win

Both  winners had  my top  score (May  Hay &  Thomas  Blossom)  and 4 other top scores failed to win.

Continuing with RPR  this year  5 highest rated  that  finished 2nd On latest  run have
All failed to win, but the three that ran Southwell were all  placed.

On that basis Eium  Mac should be placed.


3.25
Extreme Supreme  has top RPR TS speed. (Derek Shaw also had same with Loyalty on Sunday - unpl).  Two 4yo’s this year failed in this grade hcp and from
Total of  16 of the same age group in all hcp grades there has only been two placed.
Archies Advice who very similar form (311) was unplaced at 5/2fav, but over much
Longer distance.


4.00
Carlanda falls in the Top Weight & Top RPR  category as discussed in 1.15 race
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AW Monday Jan 11th

12 Jan 15 12:12
WOLV

top    Horse      days    Age
nb    Naoise 16 t     7
Y    Yair Hill 10 p     7

Y    Pearl Nation 8 h     6

Y    Harwoods Star 8 t     5

Y    Ability N Delivery 3     10

Y    Beta Tauri 35     3
Y    Cape Cay 27     3
Y    Dutch Uncle 16     3

nb    Oratorio´s Joy 5     5
Y    Thecornishcowboy 3 t     6

Comments:
Gone through all and can't really be confident.

Claimer should be between top & bottom (Tops have best record)
Harwoods Star looks best but Williams record here doesn't inspire with 5yo's at the minimum distance but should be placed.

Ability Deliver is too old at 10yrs

The 3yo hcps have insufficient runs/wins to give a high score

5.25 Dutch Uncle looks best but Ed Dunlop in Jan with mdn wins isn't.

5.55 I prefer the NB Oratorio's Joy on form figures. (Usually recent win or 2nd LTO in similar past races.
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AW System

11 Jan 15 13:11
The data is from Racing Post entries and input into database.
Other data from newspapers input into d/b.
Top score relates to CD, C, DC and D, plus Newspaper "spot"( highest rating) horses and hints.
The top score is the highest figure of the combined information.
Sometimes the Next Best (NB) are considered if within 1 point of top figure.
Sometimes there are Joint top score (J) and occasionally joint next best (NBJ)
That is the basic method.
It's simplistic really and just a guide.

However the win rate of the selected could be better if other avenues are explored.

Comparing previous races at Track, Distance & Grade, in particular month, over last few years is best, but time consuming.

The ratings from other sources are useful for comparison and support.
"Theonlywayforward" provided his ratings and was quite  successful when top figures matched. "Grendel" is an AW expert and Southwell selections are worthy of a bet.

Using the RPR rating over the period from December 1st show that there have been 76 winners that were highest rated (361 races).

Comparing the Daily Express Spot there were 96 winners.

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AW SYSTEM UPDATE

11 Jan 15 12:51
For Virgin and  any other interested parties

TOP SCORES since Jan 4th
9 denotes unplaced

pos    Horse                days
9    Divertimenti 2 b
won    Lucky Mark 17 p
won    Showtime Star 16 h
won    Apache Storm 29
9    Bognor 16
won    Abi Scarlet 16
9    Percys Princess 13
won    Harry Hurricane 170
9    Jolly Red Jeanz 38 b
2    Missandei 21
3    Lord Of The Storm 24
9    Fire In Babylon 9 b
won    Thomas Blossom 33 v
9    Enzaal 24
9    Toofeeg 29 b1
2    Best Tamayuz 10 h
won    Ruban 32 t
9    Laughing Rock 19 v
2    Eium Mac 5 6xb
2    Matraash 23 eb
won    Apparatchika 167
9    Johnny Splash 18 v
9    Sheila´s Buddy 21
4    Varsovian 20
2    Warbond 20 p
2    Fire King 27 p
2    Hollie Point 81
won    Brigliadoro 16
3    Celestial Bay 20
9    New Rich 35 b
9    Haadeeth 6 tb
3    Hell Of A Lord 195
9    Lucky Mark 4 6xp
9    Sooqaan 20
9    Keep To The Beat 76J p
2    Red Stripes 7 6xb
3    Glorious Dancer 8
9    Khajaaly 33 tv
9    Geordan Murphy 21
3    Poppy Bond 6 6x
9    Golly Miss Molly 19 b
3    Belrog 275
3    China Club 12 b1
won    Don´t Be 18
won    Sabre Rock 10 6xt
2    Invincible Ridge 32 t
won    Topaling 25
won    Dream Child 13
won    Admirable Art 10 6xp
9    Kachou
9    Magical Effect 91
9    The Dream Fast 39
9    Pharoh Jake 10
9    Wrood 57
9    Turning Times 136
3    Rakaan 7 p

TODAYS
    Zamoura 37
    Blue Aegean 134 h1
    Zac Brown 37 h1
    Super Kid 50 p
    Lunar Deity 8
    Copper Cavalier 15 v


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Ongoing

05 Jan 15 15:05
The blog is currently tied in with forum post titled "2.30 Southwell"
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Saturday Jan 3rd

03 Jan 15 13:14
Continuing with January "spot" project.
12.20 Monein (stable usually in Dubai at this time of year)
12.50 Classic Colori
1.25 Jack of Diamonds
2.00 Personal Opinion
2.35 Boom The Groom (sots rarely win this class hcp)
3.10 no selection
3.45 Caminel
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Jan 1st

01 Jan 15 17:37
New try out for the New Year. Only AW Flat racing.
12.50: MAJOR ROWAN
1.30: Little
2.05: GROSMONT
2.40: Poyle Vinnie
3.15: Reve De Nuit
3.35: Swing Alone (Royal Maskel)

Not the best of days, but first attempt at deciphering of loads of data collected over last 3 years.
Working to the "spot" selects from two newspapers, plus other enhancing (?) features that are used for scoring.

No winners from the selections today.
Major Rowan was the highest score of the two spot runners in the first race, and low behold the Express spot (A 6yo maiden) won the race at 16/1.

Was not keen on the 3yo race as not looked at that age group.
   
Looking at the spot runners in Conditions race (Dungannon & Poyle Vinnie) I was wary of Dungannon, as it seemed to best horse in race, and I've been caught out by laying the best horse on two occasions recently (Shyron yesterday), so set a low lay bet at 1.53 - on the basis that the higher age group rarely win these conditions races on AW - and the winner was a 9yo!!!

That one ran poorly six days ago, but wins today over 5f.
The previous post included mention of Woolfall having a chance of beating Pretend - (My other lay bet)
"Two dangers are Woolfall Sovereign that has won all its AW races between Dec & January months. Recent wins have been over the shorter 5f though - but Wolver seems its best track."

Grosmont was a let down in the maiden race, as the last 3 years the race had been won by the Mirror spot horse.

The claimer races are the least profitable with this experiment and was not a viable race to bet in considering a long odds on favourite who won the race last year. Even that failed to win today.

The last race was a none starter, because I was looking for the Top 3 weights to match one of the Top three in betting and that did not materialise, although The Lock Master did slip in as joint 3RD in betting, it was not a spot horse.
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