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FLAT RACING

Boxing Day AW

26 Dec 14 15:49
1.10
Rarely is this race won by a runner that has achieved more than one 2nd placing.
Secret Glance comes to the race with three and Kyrenia comes with two.
That leaves Rahmaah with just the one second placing and FTO Tavener.

1.45
The Godolphin set up has changed its stance on December AW runners and this has proved well this year for the 2yo's.

Pretend the 3yo comes to this race after a Hcp win in same grade.
Looking back over the years there appears to be one 3yo horse that had won both a B hcp and Bcon races. That was Secrecy and it took a years break to win both.

Pretend comes here within 7 days!
It seems they have taken a while to realise that 6f is the distance for Pretend - or is it? At current odds of 4/7 it might be worth avoiding.
Most of their 3yo's have ran at Listed or Group level before conditions race win.


Two dangers are Woolfall Sovereign that has won all its AW races between Dec & January months. Recent wins have been over the shorter 5f though - but Wolver seems its best track.

Baddalini has a chance on it's form with Secondo (link to Pretend) and won't be far away on the weights. Two of its 3 wins were with first time up jockeys and Chris Catlin has a 40% record for Alan Bailey.
The track also suits him based upon his two runs, a win and close 2nd.

Totally wrong in first two races so trying the last few races
3.05
3yo bottom weights with a win LTO do fairly well so going with MOULIN ROUGE

3.40
Botti farms these class 2 hcps on AW so going with SOLAR DIETY

4.45
Back to the 3yo bottom weights in this but can't decide between
KNOW YOUR NAME and YARD OF ALE
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NEWMARKET Final

03 Nov 14 17:28
This meeting over Friday & Saturday has shown that top speed horses have a very decent strike rate.
I use Speed Plus and Split Second via Raceform Interactive.
Taking todays races the horses that are top in either of the two ratings are..
12.30 Tafahom
1.00  Crown Command
1.30 Unison / Ventura Quest
2.00 Terror
2.35 Red Pike
3.10 Headline News / Bantam
3.45 Sohar / Entihaa
4.15 Eurystheus

Yesterdays Results
12.30 unplaced
1.00 unplaced
1.30 WON 20/1 (Unison)
2.00 WON 1/5F
2.35 WON 5/6F
3.10 WON 4/1 (Bantam 2nd)

3.45 2ND 11/2 (Sohar)
4.14 WON 9/4F


SATURDAY
12.20 Ignoring this race
12.50 Shadow Rock / Dark Wave; Going with Shadow Rock
1.25 Lady Of Dubai / Encore L'amour
2.00 Dream Walker / Uncle Dermot
2.35 Air Pilot / Educate
3.10 Bronze Angel
3.45 Showboating
4.15 Teds Brother

The last two races look a bit dodgy as neither of the tops have produced there best for a while, so I'm including Pashan Garh who has been 2nd on both occasions that it ran in this race and Tiger Tim that produced it's best speed latest run.

Not as good as yesterday but I really messed up on 12.50 race. There were three runners with the top speed rating - Yorkriding, Shadow Rock and Rotherwick (winner). My brain was clearly out of gear on that race.

Still there were two winners with Dream Walker 14/1 (18.5 BF) and Air Pilot. Showboating let me down for a decent treble when finishing 2nd.

Was torn between French Navy and Bronze Angel in 3.10. The race stats said that Godolphin had a very good record in this race over last 5 years but Bronze Angel shaded French Navy on both Speed Plus and Split Second. The winner (French Navy) won with the penalty - which has now occurred on 5 occasions in last 20 years, to date, but the older age group,6yrs or more, have managed 3 wins from 8 races and now twice in last 2 years. 
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System 199

23 Jul 14 12:38
WEDNESDAY July 23rd
3.20 Catt: Midlander. Ran over shorter dist LTO whilst stayed on FTO over 6f. This distance may suit it. Was top speed in entry for todays Sandown maiden but comes here instead. With no previous winners in todays race and ridden for first time by Joe Fanning it must have a great chance.

4.20 Catt: Cruise Tothelimit
4.50 Catt: Hazard Warning

4.00 Ling: Panther Patrol
5.00 Ling: Red Passiflora

6.05 Sand: Black Minstrel
6.35 Sand: Alketios
8.20 Sand: Meetings Man

.........................................


TUESDAY July 22nd 2014
2.00 Muss: Testa Rossa unpl
3.00 Muss: Windforpower WON 5/2f
3.30 Muss: Eileen Mor unpl
4.00 Muss: Salvatore Fury 3rd
4.30 Muss: Maoi Chinn Tire 2nd 5/4f

6.10 Carl: Terentun Star WON 1/4f
6.40 Carl: Kirtling Belle unpl
8.40 Carl: Sugar Town 2nd 4/1
9.10 Carl: Lilly Junior unpl

JUDGEMENT RESERVED:
2.30 Muss: Henrytheaeroplane 2nd 8/11f (debutant runners)
3.30 Muss: Valentino Oyster WON 4/1(the other qualifier with CD preferred)
4.30 Muss: Voice From Above unpl (other qualifier preferred)
5.00 Muss: Running Reef  unpl and Ixelles Diamond 3rd(undecided)

7.10 Carl: La Havrese  3rd
7.40 Carl: Gotcha unpl and Muhawalah WON 5/4f
8.10 Carl: Naoise 3rd
8.40 Carl: Mrs Warren unpl (other qualifier just preferred)




MONDAY July 21st 2014
3.20 Ayr: Taurus Twins  UNPL 10/3f
6.45 Bev: Cadeaux Pearl UNPL AND Mey Blossom 3rd 8/1
7.55 Winds: Mission Approved 3rd 6/5f
8.45 Bev: Rainbow Rock WON 7/4f

JUDGEMENT RESERVED:
2.15 Ayr My dream Boat (Days)2nd
4.25 Ayr Uplifted (days)UNPL
4.55 Ayr Le Chat D'or (days)UNPL

6.15 BEV Elizabeth Flynn (Race type)2nd 5/4f
7.15 Bev Heska WON 5/1 AND Ice Mayden UNPL(race type & grade)
7.45 Bev Mr McLaren (race type)3rd 9/4f
8.15 Bev Kirkman (race type & grade)WON 3/1

6.25 Winds Mystic And Artist (days) 2nd 5/2f
6.55 Winds Mount Shamsan (days) NON RUNNER
7.25 Winds Balmoral Castle (days)WON 6/1
8.25 Winds Unison  NON RUNNER
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1.40 NMKT Bahrain Trophy

11 Jul 14 10:44

Race started as Listed event 1990 and upgraded to Group 3 2009.
24 past races
16 past winners ran at Royal Ascot; 12 of those ran in 2 mile Vase (all LTO)
Only two won the Vase and that was 1990 and 1991.
4 ran in Derby - three Epsom and other Rome. One of the 3 Epsom ran in Vase after.
7 ran in recognised derby TRIAL race (5 of those in last six years)and only one did not run Ascot or Derby.

The TRIAL element is interesting because it shows a recent shift in trends.
John Gosden has won the race on four occasions, and the last three runnings.
His 2012 winner hadn't achieved much and only won it's maiden on latest start, BUT it did finish 2nd in Lingfield Derby TRIAL. Other than that race one could have discarded it from winner calculations.

9 winners won a maiden race as 2yo. Two of those achieved a further 2yo win (Ccon & GP3)
5 never ran as 2yo.

9 ran in maiden race two races previous - 7 won, 1 won mdn race LTO and other won Vase as a maiden.
20 of 24 winners ran a maximum of 6 times prior to this race. The maximum number of runs is 10 (Same as Hartnell).



Forever Now; Just maiden runs for this one. Two winners have won this with just 3 runs, but both had 2 wins. J Gosden won it with a mdn only winner 2012 but that had ran 2nd in Derby trial.

Hartnell: Came good in Vase and is a possible. The lack of Vase winner since race began and number of runs puts me off.

The Corsican; No horse has won with just 2 runs.

Vent De Force; A handicapper. Five winners had mainly raced in and  won hcps. 1995 was last time a horse won that had won over 14f.

Windshear; Another handicapper but higher grades than above. Two winners came from King George Hcp both were placed (2nd & 3rd)

Looking at the race today and comparing the stats I went for BUNKER and HONOR BOUND (filly)
A filly has only won
the race twice 2000 & 2001 and both were handicappers!

BUNKER now a none runner and ODEON replaces it as alternative

RESULT;
Wht a palavar of a race. Main selections both withdrawn and latter at the start. That would have handed the race to Hartnell (winner) on stats.
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Saturday May 31st

31 May 14 14:45
Just the one race examined today.
1.30 HAYDOCK
Comparing last 14 Haydock races around this time of year and identifying number of races won, distances etc etc.
The speed has shown up quite well in the 2 years 2012-2013 since I started recording.

Age; past winners tend to be 5yo & 6yo (10 of the 14)
4yo's follow with 3 wins and jusy 1 win for an ageing 8yo.

9 winners won over Distance
apart from that the winners have won over 7f or 9f (the latter maybe 8.5 on AW)

By an excel process to compare winner v runners it says the most wins from past winners ends at 6 wins
Today there are 5 runners that exceed that figure.
It is rare to find a past winner with class B (2) win - just Albaqaa 2013. Today we have 4 runners with such wins, and 6 runners over the normal win age (4-6yo's)


I'm ignoring the older runners and just taking two to bet for the win.
Eurystheus
Exzachary


RESULT UPDATE;
The Top weight 8yo Dubai Hills won 4/1
Eurytheus was 4th (fav)


2.05 HAYDOCK
Astonished in this with dangers Freedom's Light & Special Meaning

I point out that neither are in the speed set up though.

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Tuesday May 27th

27 May 14 15:22
Not much doing today except putting a daily blog together.
The R.P supplies the race titles and I've entered them up to June 9th.
Raceform Interactive supplies the 10 year trends and speed figures and those are put in against the race daily.
My own d/base provides last 12 years winners data and notes and they are input with distance wins and numbers and notes.
It's an overall mammoth task to take, but should make it easy for future years.

Todays movers
2.30 Towbee (forecast 7/1) into 11/4 fav
2.40 Marmalady (still fav but has dropped from 10/3 to 2/1
3.00 Native Heart 7/1 into 7/2 jt fav with non mover Belayer (f/cast 7/2)
3.10 Olivers Mount (f/cast 2/1 fav) now 5/1 but still fav. Money for
The Happy Hammer (14/1 to 11/1) and Princes Spirit (14's into 10)
3.40 Goodwood Storm 10/1 into 11/4 fav ***
5.0 Silver Page (f/c 15/8) now 4/5
5.10 Placidia halved in price (5/1 to 5/2) and jt fav with Potent Embrace
5.40 Grayswood (9/4 2nd fav)now 9/4 fav but original fav Ssafa 2/2 out to 9/2

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Friday May 23rd

25 May 14 18:38
It's just an experiment today
The horses that appear well backed

1 Haydock 23rd May - 14:00 Backing: Luck of The Game @ SP (3rd)
2 Haydock 23rd May - 14:30 Backing: Winslow @ SP  (WON)
3 Haydock 23rd May - 16:15 Backing: Crowleys Law @ SP (WON)
4 Yarmouth 23rd May - 14:10 Backing: Johara @ SP  (WON)
5 Pontefract 23rd May - 20:30 Backing: Chortle @ SP 
6 Musselburgh 23rd May - 19:10 Backing: Here Now And Why @ SP 
7 Musselburgh 23rd May - 20:40 Backing: Twin Appeal @ SP WON


REVIEW.
Just another experiment in trying to find the winners.
Sucessful?
Partly. 4 winners from 7 selections.
The bets were placed by win accumulators - 4 winners, 5 winners and 7 winners. The end result was a loss of £2. In hindsight perhaps one should start with Trebles.

It's based upon Newspaper favourites and checking Betfair prices after 11am to see if ...
A; Both newspaper and betfairs prices are both still favourite.
B; A new favoutite has appeared on the Betfair price and the newspaper forecast favourite is no longer the lowest in betting.
C; Any other horse has dropped dramatically and is competing for favourite.

It has been noted that some trainers have more than one market mover.
P Kirby's Rocky Two (6.10 Musselburgh) dropped from 5/1 and ended up 9/4f and won.
His other mover Here, Now And Why (7.10) dropped considerably from 8/1 to jt fav, but was unplaced.

Similarly on Tuesday Michael Dods runner, Dartrix, was heavily backed from 14/1 and was unplaced, whilst another runner Muharrer was forecast at 10/1 and won at 4/1fav. A third runner Beat The Tide (4/1) ended up 6/4 fav and finished 3rd.

It has often been the case that trainers who have market movers manage to get a winner on the day.

Small fields are probably best avoided, certainly on the evidence of Three runner races. 

The recent weather causing several withdrawals will also play havoc with prices and probably best to avoid those days.
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THURSDAY May 22nd

22 May 14 17:43
4.25 Lupe Stakes (now Height of Fashion)
Generally you need a filly that has ran in listed or group race.

Qualifiers.....

Jordan Princess (fav)

Uchenna
This has ran in Group 1 race and although behind Jordan Princess could improve

Secret Pursuit. This one may have too many runs as 3yo, as no winner since 1982 has had more than 3 runs in current year and the only winner with three runs was a dead heat (2006)

Psychometry. Probably held by Secret Pursuit

RESULT UPDATE
Marsh Daisy won
That makes her the fifth winner who didn't run as 2yo. (since 1982)
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Weds May 21st

22 May 14 16:22
Not much doing yesterday. Laid Mary Mcphee on basis of the Hills record in 2yo mdn fills at Warwick, and watched Roger Charltons Saxon Princess lose as favourite in 3yo hcp at Bath.
As mentioned previously he doesn't do well in the lower grade hcps this month, but alarm bells over the stable form continues.

Today sees Frangipanni try to follow up her win at Lingfield (AW) 22 days ago. She was given a lot to do that day, but at 4/5 fav it might have been an easy race for her - as his first hcp after three unplaced runs as 2yo.

The form has been franked by the 3rd horse that day winning at Brighton, however the 2nd was well beaten at Southwell.

Checking Charlton d/base it seems he has never had a horse that did back to back wins on AW in 3yo hcp's - although Acrobatic (2006) won 3yo hcp and followed up with 3yo+ hcp.
This year shows an improvement in hcp wins at Lingfield AW (4) which matches his number of previous wins since he took over from Jeremy Tree.

It's not one I would want to take on today as a lay, but nor would I back it.

RESULT UPDATE
Frangipanni unplaced (5th) 5/2 fav
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Monday March 19th

20 May 14 12:30
Well a gardening day yesterday meant missing out on two Dascombe winners. Cape Rosso was a pick at Chester when withdrawn (and later withdrawn at another meeting)and Art of War - which had a good chance of winning. The put off was trainer record when sending four runners to a northern meeting.

Todays another day and Michael Stoute is making up for a lack lustre two years during 2012-2013.

Joe Doyle rides BRAGGING for the owner instead of riding a Roger Charlton runner at Leicester - Continental Drift.

I have no qualms about BRAGGING as Stoute record in May with maiden fillies is very good. Windsor is one of his speciality tracks for running two fillies in same race but that doesn't apply today.

Continental Drift hasn't had a run this year so is one to ignore today.

RESULT UPDATE
Bragging 1st 7/4f

Continental Drift unpl - as expected, but slight concern over Roger Charltons form of late.
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