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FLAT RACING

Saturday May 17th

18 May 14 11:10
Still going with yesterdays theme - Roger Charlton 3yo hcp May month

Today.
NMKT 3.30
Has two runners in this race the Coral Sprint trophy.
He has won it twice in last 12 years (Genki and Mince)
Both those ran after 14 days like Stars Above Me today
The selection is a filly (like Mince).

The other runner Stomp is not without chance, as Borehan (2006) was a maiden as 2yo and then won two races prior to Coral win. Boreham had 21 days rest and Stomp only has 8 days (lowest in last 12 years was 10)

On the balance that 8 of the last 12 winners had only won as 2yo's I prefer Stars Above Me - and I'm not keen on apprentice jockeys in these valuable races.

The dangers could come from the previous race though.
Eastern Impact and Meritocracy.
I'm ruling out the winner Nova Champ on basis that only one past winner had won both as 2yo & 3yo. (last 12 years)

RESULT UPDATE
Eastern Impact won 14/1 Just beat Charlton's other runner Stomp and well overturned form with disappointing Stars Above Me. (The too few runs for latter probably voided her chances)
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Friday May 16th

16 May 14 14:17
Been away for a nice break.
It's good to get away and come back with a clear head.

I've been waiting for Roger Charlton and 3yo hcp races during May.
Today he runs Hooded in 4.10 Newbury

Looking back at his winners in this type of race (3yo hcp) in May months trainer has got a fair strike rate in all grades (class) except the two lower (5 & 6)

The jockey today in not the normal choice, and his regulars Joe Doyle rides at York for same owner, whilst George Baker is at Newbury and rides Captain Marmalade in the first race for Charlton.

That starts the warning sign and there are a few more.
Long Break runners don't have such a good record, and Newbury has only provided one winner (Al Kazeem) from at least eight runners.

The only thing going is the owner has had two previous winners with Charlton in race type in May 2013 and Derwent was a long break runner.

The stake has dropped from 10 points to 1 point though.
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CHESTER Friday

09 May 14 12:46
Race 1.
A very open looking race.
No horse (since 1982) has won with a minimum number of two runs (Abseil). Sir Michael Stoute did win this race with a 3 runs maiden runner but that got the race because easy winner Cantina had come across the field too early from a wide draw, and was disqualified.

No horse, in same period, that had won it’s last two races -  of previous season and first of current campaign (Capo Rosso).  Trainer Dascombe has yet to win a class 2 hcp at the track, but came close last year with Chosen Character in this race.
However bottom or second to bottom weights have won 5 running’s of this race, and all had won or ran 2nd on latest outing.

4yo’s have won 13 of the last 31 races (2003 abandoned) and three started favourite
5yo’s won 8 and four were favs
6yo’s won 6 and two were favs
7yo plus won 4 – none were favs

Tom Dascombe has three in the race today and a total of eight runners and will be trying for his first winner of this May meeting. He has managed a winner at this meeting  in the last four years since training in Cheshire. I would be very surprised if he left empty handed today.

Race 2 Dee stakes
24 of last 35 winners were either 1st or 2nd on last run (22 of the 24 had won a race) – Zampos Manos only qualifier.
6 were either 3rd or 4th on last run   (2 of the 6 had won a race) – No qualifiers
5 were unplaced   (4 had won a race)  - Bow Creek, Somewhat, Century, Kingfisher are qualifiers.
26 had won as 2yo , (Bow Creek, Somewhat, Century, Kingfisher, Zampos Manos)
11 won as 3yo  -  (Bow Creek, Zampas Manos)
3 had only won as 3yo (no qualifier)
8 had won both 2yo & 3yo races. –Bow Creek , Zampos Manos  qualifiers
3 were maidens prior to the race (Drunmore Road & Randwick)
Very unusual this year with two trainers (O’Brien & Johnston) having two runners in race
It happened only once (1984) with Hills and Cecil.  Hills had the winner and is the only trainer to run two on more than one occasion – winning three of the four occasions.
O’Brien 4 wins, Hills stable 7 wins, Balding 0 wins , Johnston 0 wins
O’Brien has landed three races with a horse running for first time current year (Century)

Century

Race 3.
Brown Panther
Race 4.
Blithe Spirit or See The Sun (on speed)
Race 5
Dr Redeye, Skytrain or Postscript (on speed)
Race 6
Sighora or Destiny’s kitten

Race 7 - indepub
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Tuesday 6th March

06 May 14 16:27
With Chester tomorrow very busy
The selection today is another system, but confined to Kremlin Road stable.

5.10 Kafeel
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1000 gns 2014

05 May 14 12:46
Have loads of data over 33 yrs on this race
I gave up on it when Homecoming Queen won in 2012.

BASICS
33 races
7 unbeaten winners (last was Attraction 2004) and there's only one qualifier this year (Betimes) but no winner had just the one run (16 have tried).

The best and easiest guides I can give are
Winner FTO and / or LTO
Last run as 2yo September - November (the later the better)

There's loads of more complicated scenario's with track and distance wins but I'll stick with the basics.

So out go...numbers on racecard
1(nr),2,3,4,8,9,13,14,16, That's four of first six in betting gone (as far as the winner is concerned)

I've a problem with Ihtimal because of the 10f win in Meydan. Normally 8f is maximum win distance. I'm not aware of any winner coming from winter racing in Dubai. They tried with Devotee in 2009 and I may have missed another I'm not aware of.

Problem with Sandiva on basis that the three past Nell Gwyn winners managed a win or 2nd placing in Grp 2 or Gp 1 race and Sandiva has only decent Grp 3 runs.

Also Lucky Crystal won the Lowther. The criteria is placed at Gp 1 level and Lucky K has won two Grp 2 races. It's a tight call on this one though.

Lightning Thunder who scores highly so far was placed in Rockfel and that race produced 17 qualifiers who ran in Gns failed to win

Up until last year no 6f winner that ran over 8f had won.
That stat was broken by Sky Thunder but may effect Joyeuse, Lucky Krystale, Princess Noor and Vorda.

So what's left?
MAJEYDA and TAPESTRY

Both O'Brien winners had more than 3 runs and a current outing. Only Virginia Waters was kept to Irish racing. (wishful thinking) But at the prices maybe Tapestry will take it.

There you have it (?)
Ihtmal will make the running for Majeyda

RESULT UPDATE
Miss France won
My two unplaced
The winner was knocked out at first stage - not having won FTO or LTO
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Saturday May 3rd

04 May 14 14:09
2.05 NMKT
Bogged down with this race.
The Group race winners Trumpet Major & Farraaj should be too high in weights to win this and also the listed winner Burano.
Only 9 past races to interrogate but no horse won that had won higher than class 2.

The weight range favours 8-9 to 9-0 and only Michael Stoute won with higher weight when 4yo Confront woon with top weight 9-10.
His runner today, Bold Sniper has to overcome fact that no 12f winner has won this race yet.

David O'Meara is still experimenting with his two French purchases but whilst Tea For Two did win at Ripon the jockey on it that day rides at Thirsk and Donny today

Jockey's are important for this race as regular jockeys who have won on the horse account for 7 of the 9 races so far. The other two involved Andrew Balding taking over Tillius and end of season prior to winning this in 2012, and M.J putting up Fallon on on Tartan Gigha in 2010 when regular jockey Joe Fanning rode the other Tartan into 5th place.

Top trainers and a win at southern Grade 1 track are also a feature of past winners. Course winners have won three of the 9 races.

S.P range has been 9/2 to 12/1, but mainly looking between 8/1 to 12/1

It's a difficult race as Big Baz has only had three AW runs but [b]ROCK CHOIR[/b] ticks most of the boxes and William Haggas might take this again with his class 3 winner that has run it's last three races in listed company.


I'm watching out for Roger Charltons 3yo hcp runners. This is his better month for these races and he has quite a few entries lined up over next few days.
[b]STARS ABOVE[/b] might start the ball rolling today Nmkt 4.25

RESULTS UPDATE;
Rock Choir unplaced
The winner was Niceofyoutotellme.  That one had a faily high score
Stars Above 2nd unable to catch the front running winner.
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FRIDAY MAY 2nd

02 May 14 19:00
Quick scan today but mainly negatives.

William Haggas very good with 3yo fillies in maidens (under todays system criteria) - BUT not at LINGA
That makes a negative for odds on ETAAB 3.10 today.
If it doesn't win today, then likely to in her next race.

Trainer may have a chance of win with FLIPPANT 3.55 Chepstow
This was highly entered in class 2 hcp after it's maiden win.

Looking at Quinlan again today - Chepstow does not appear on his win list with fillies. A negative for SLIPPER SATIN 5.35 Chepstow

RESULTS UPDATE;
ETAAB bolts in at 8/15f
FLIPPANT wears them down close home to win at 6/1
SLIPPER SATIN nowhere to be seen.
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Thurs May 1st

01 May 14 19:49
Just Redcar on Flat today

1.55
Having done some research into Quinlan stable over winter, I formed the opinion to watch just the fillies runners.
March-April rarely produce a win from 2yo filly, but May begins the season.
Granny Alice is the stable runner in this but looking at the database there have been three Redcar wins - all over 6f.
Today is 5f, but all three mentioned wins were favourites, and Granny Alice is currently the clear fav in the race.
The price is a bit short though and it's probably just a watching race for me.

2.25
Mick Channon in a 2yo seller up north in May is worth a look.
The stable record at Redcar is pretty good.
The downside is that it maybe just too early in the month, because the winners usually start around 10th and it's best to ignore the last week of May.
The runner today is a filly (very good record) MAY ONE (perhaps the name is telling us something, but only 6 winners on this day for stable since 1994)



RESULTS UPDATE;
Granny Alice won 11/10f
May One unplaced - drifter
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Weds April 30th

30 Apr 14 23:05
Quite good racing today. We are moving into the better racing period after a stutter start to Flat. We can really do without the AW especially when seven races at Wolverhampton yesterday only attracted a total of 33 runners.
I'm never that keen on small fields as a betting proposition.(especially at low grade tracks).

ASCOT 2.00
A small field but Hannon's MAGICAL ROUNDABOUT fits the bill of previous winners of this race. Race normally won by single run winner and Hannon has won this on three occasions with a Windsor winning favourite.

ASCOT 2.35
A more difficult race to assess but past winners tend to have won at distance more often than not, and ran in group race and/or won a conditions race.
I will overlook Danehill Revival,who did nothing wrong when winning her only race at Ponte, but that was a very poor maiden.

I get it down to MUSICAL COMEDY with three distance wins but the hcp run is a concern. Even Lady Domatrix (2002 winner) never had a hcp run in her ten races prior to this race and no hcp race appears in the eight other past races scrutinised.
The winner could be RUFFORD, who kept good company after his maiden win FTO.

ASCOT 4.45
The strange thing about this race is that 8 out of last 10 winners had won over the distance (8f) only once. That includes all the ages (4yo to 8yo), with a discrepancy with the two 6yo's.

The form line (a win in last two races) indicates the Stoute runner RUSSIAN REALM.
Other similar qualifiers are Big Whisky and Ishikwaka, but also First Post (C&D) could run well.

RESULTS UPDATE;
Magical Roundabout well beaten. Drift in price.
Musical Comedy 2nd, Rufford 3rd. Winner (Mick's Yer Man) had run in several hcps! This race is not a favourites race.
Russian Realm 2nd to Ishikwaka.

The last race was a saver with a bet on Ishikwaka at 16/1
Having lost on first two races went to my trusty computer and opened the Stoute database to find that his record in mid to low grade 3yo+ hcps at Ascot is quite poor. Wasn't willing to risk much on short priced Russian Realm.
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Sunday April 27th

27 Apr 14 21:04
Not much doing today unless you are a follower of Jim Goldie.

Alan Bailey has done well at Ayr over the years and sends up two today from his Nmkt base
MEGALKA 3.00 looks his best chance and other is COINCIDENTLY on 4.30

Looking at yesterdays results a little system (one of many) landed 4 winners and 3 losers.
Only one today by same method
CALL OF DUTY 4.00 Ayr

Small stakes only.

UPDATE;
MEGALKA won 10/3f
CALL OF DUTY won 11/2
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