Forums
8 people are following this blog
FLAT RACING

FLAT SEASON OVER

11 Nov 12 12:15
Well that's it - another year over.
The stats collection on better class races now rises to 31 years of data.
The trainer data on computer will be 19 years when this years input is completed.

Does it pay? Probably not, especially when you take into account Raceform Interactive and newpaper costs.
Any hobby is costly though but this years betting has not been at a loss.
Using the Express & Mirror spot data landed me a £20 ew double in October which was quite amazing considering the small amount
of data input at the time. I rarely back in doubles and was just testing the data. The £800+ win ensured a good Christmas.
The November Hcp stats landed a 20/1 winner and £300 profit on the race.
Overall I'm only about £300 in profit on the season though.

Now it's a case of finishing the data input and evaluating each trainer file to ascertain the positives and negatives.
Then there's the Express & Mirror spot data to incorporate and evaluate plus the addition of speed figures.
Also having cut n pasted the 10 year trends for all races from June there is the exploration of those race trends.

The filing cabinets will be sorted into order to allow an easy daily pull out.
All in all I want an easy pull out of the positive and negative daily data, without the laborious searching via computer and paperwork.

I've been attempting to get to that position for a few years but usually get distracted with AW racing and bumper races.
This winter I'm giving the bumpers a miss and will stick to a small Mark Johnston AW database prepared last year.

That's the plan anyway!!! 
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 144 views ]

NOVEMBER HCP

13 Nov 12 11:49
I could knock all the runners for various 30 year stats reasons EXCEPT
Nicholascopernicus
Party Line
Art Scholar


Blue Surfer also has no negatives, but from the last sixteen 3yo winners none have won 10f three times. This race might not be the one to ask him to win over 12f?
Saying that 8 of the last 30 winners were winning their first race over 12f, but only three were 3yo's and one of those had won 3 races over further.

I would be wary of Suroor with Retrieve. The trainer has run a few since 2005 and in each of the five races a big named trainer has won the race.
He came close with Willing Foe last year (2nd) and runs three Group 1 horses this year!! Retrieved's form over 12f is outstanding for this hcp BUT in last 30 years no winner has had group form

BEWARE that in last 30 years only 4 favs have triumphed and 19 of 30 winners S.P were in double figures.

  [b]UPDATE - RESULT winner ART SCHOLAR  20/1


Previous Years Analysis

2011
Short List of 5 included winner Zuider Zee


at 06 Nov 2010 10:19  NOVEMBER HCP 2010-11-05  STATS 28 years
3yo wins 16
4yo wins 7
5yo wins 3
6yo wins 2
3yo’s only age group to WLTO
Only 5 past winners were out of frame on latest run.
Only 1 top weight has won (only listed race winner)
Generally class 2 is highest grade ran
Two hurdlers have won (only won 1 hurdle race between them)
Generally Middle to High draw preferred

This years 3yo participtants.
SENATE runs for John Gosden (4 previous winners) but his three previous winners in this age group all ran well on final start prior to November Hcp.
Has already won a valuable hcp – unlike previous 3yo winners.
WILLING FOE is the first 3yo runner for Suroor after three failed attempts in this race with older horses since 2006.
This one has done nothing wrong and stepped up to win over 12f at Nmkt latest after two Course wins over 10f here.
The draw maybe a negative but three past 3yo winners had a low draw.
Also has not yet run in a big field.
Appears to have 2lb in hand of Senate on form lines with Times Up.
CRACKING LASS won latest at Leicester over 12f but nearly all the past 3yo winners managed to win two races at least in current year so is overlooked as are PROMPTER and SIMEON who have both failed to win this year.

The 4yo participitants.
Generally the 4yo winners were lightly raced in terms of 12f distance in current year.
Only two of the past six winners in this age group had actually run over 12f in current season, with one winning at the distance.
5yo  Similar to above. The three winners won over 10f, 13f and 15f current season.

SUMMARY There is no stand out runner this year for me.
It’s logical to look at the 3yo’s firstly as this age group has high win ratio.
Last year there were only two decent 3yo’s but they had negatives against them
This year WILLING FOE and SENATE are decent contenders and unless it is one of those unusual years the race could be won by either.
TIMES UP has run consistently well over 12f and I liked his performance against Senate, which poses a possible reversal today.
Alan King runs two hurdlers in the race. Both ran well in this race last year.
I would say Salden Licht has interesting form with a win at the track, but its Hurdle form is really decent. The problem is that both have run at group level.
Winner TIMES UP 14/1  2nd Betchworth Kid  (Alan King)________________________________________

NOV HCP STATS REVIEW 2009 (27yrs)

Tastahil - Only one top weight has won, Yavanahs Pace who had won listed event. The group and listed runs have put this up 14lb from its 8-13 weight last year when 3rd. Two recent winners finished 4th (Tropical Strait) and 5th (Group Captain) the previous year. Likes Doncaster and soft ground but the low draw (5) on soft ground has only provided 2 winners. Possible place chance.

Friston Forest - Another Pattern performer with 100 days off course. Longest off course winner was 65 days (1983). Also unplaced latest and only four winners managed to win this with an unplaced run LTO and three of those were 3yo's.

Baila Me - An interesting 4yo who is also a Pattern performer (more this year than ever before). It won on AW latest. It would be the first winner to have run LTO on AW and the first winner to have won its previous race that wasn't a 3yo.

Charm School – Not run over today’s distance but won over 11f on AW. Only won two of twelve races but one of those was at Doncaster. There has been six 4yo winners and four of those had never won over the distance but two had won at Doncaster (10f) and another was placed in two of its three runs there. Charm School has won and been placed in three runs at the track. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Merchant Of Dubai – Only four runs this season and five is the minimum for runners over 3yo. Unplaced latest but that was a group race.

Safari Sunup – Pretty consistent but hasn’t won for a while. No wins in current season plus low draw go against this one.
Siberian Tiger – Three runs this season and all unplaced.

Salden Licht – Another ponderable runner with French Pattern form. Never run beyond 10f and only three races this season.

Broomie Law – Another 5yo with too few runs this term. Unplaced LTO also.

Kings Destiny – 3yo’s have won 16 of last 27 November hcps. Appears to have a chance with 2nd in class 2 hcp at Ascot latest and a win over todays distance in this grade. Not ran at Doncaster but has won up North at Ripon. If there is a concern it hedges upon 2nd latest run as only 1 of 16 3yo’s who finished 2nd LTO have won. Also the two winners that came straight from Ascot here were 5yo & 6yo. Slight reluctance to leave this out but watching last race he looked very tired near finish.

Magicalmysterytour – 6yo unplaced last four runs. The two previous 6yo’s had very consistent form prior to this.

Pevensey – A 7yo hurdler and flat hcpr. Age 6 is the cut off for this race. At least 13 seven year old runners have attained only three placings.


Stormy Weather – A very interesting 3yo who  finished 2nd in a hurdle race latest. Has French Pattern form. Only one run on flat at Haydock over todays distance. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage as the best 3yo today, and on fair handicap mark. A negative draw (2) but Carte Diamond another 3yo won from draw 3 on soft going.

First Avenue – Only one flat run (unplaced) but earlier hurdles runs this year
Rangefinder – 5yo with overseas hcp form. Has had 6 UK runs this term but a big step up from his class 4 hcp win at Thirsk,

Helvelius – A lightly raced 4yo who was a decent 2nd at Nmkt over 12f in this grade. That run was his best ever and the fact that he started favourite then is noted. The majority (8) of previous winners in terms of last track runs came from Nmkt. Also only beaten a nose at Doncaster. As the race is weak with 3yo’s this year he probably comes similar to the remit of Turbo and Young Benz who both won this without a win in current season. Goes through to possible winner stage.

Ladies Best – 5yo. Not a winner over distance nor a hurdler.

Hillview Boy – 5yo with very good course form and consistent form all season. Started out as National hunt flat runner (Tropical Straight last year). Won on soft going at todays course, has a decent draw. Definitely goes through to possible winner stage.

Ella – Not done as much as her mother Flossy who won this after six current term wins in 1999. Only three runs at lower grade this year.
Tilt – Too old at seven.
Conquisto – A C&D winner with highest draw. Possibilities, but has only won races with seven runners. A decent outsider though.
Highland Legacy – Three two mile wins last year but only 3 runs this year.

SELECTED AS LIKELY WINNER
CHARM SCHOOL
STORMY WEATHER (negative draw)
HELVELIUS
HILLVIEW BOY

WINNER - CHARM SCHOOL



2008 Winner not in selected
2007 Malt & Mash in selected
2006 Winner Group Captain was not in selected - but had been in selections previous year.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 266 views ]

WOLVER Maidens

08 Nov 12 10:50
Tom Dascombe has a good record in 3yo+ Maiden Stakes at Wolverhampton.
They become very good when returning after a Long Break (100+ days)
In the winter period October-February they become "excellent"

Kenny Powers 6.50 today
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 185 views ]

NMKT Nov 3rd

05 Nov 12 19:40
Having entered all Express Data for top rated W Factor I'm looking forward to utilising the data.
One would think that the top rated would also match the "SPOT" indicated racecard pick but out of 5755 races there were 356 SPOT selected that were not the Top Rated. Those provided 49 winners but overall an insignificant small profit.

Today I am going with CLASSIC CALORI 2.30 NMKT
There are a number of reasons to support this one today.
It's latest form at Nmkt when taking lead in final furlong to be headed near finish was in a grade higher than today.
Todays race is over a furlong shorter but that may or may not be a positive, but on soft going it may prove to be.

David O'Meara has had a pretty good year in Class 3 (C) grade hcps (3yo+) this year with a strike rate of 11 wins from 50 runners. Take out the older horses (7yo+ which provides just 1 win from 14 runners) it leaves a healthy 30% win rate.

Now using the Express Top Rated spot data at NMKT in C hcps 3yo+ (which Classic Colori has today) this year's data shows
           win - place - unpl - races
ratio of    8     6       7       21
Take out the three older runners, one of which was placed 3rd and it reads 13-18 that were placed (70%).

At around 5/1 it looks a very reasonable each way bet.

RESULT. Wannabe King 1st 33/1; Classic Colori unplaced.

After looking at previous race trends a Distance win usually figured in the past winners C.V. and Classic Colori had not won at the distance of todays race. Need to cover all the angles in future.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 172 views ]

HORRIS HILL Newbury 2.15

29 Oct 12 15:36
Going by 10 year trends
All past 10 winners were PLACED/WON LTO
ALL past 10 winners won in last two runs

There are three qualifiers today
BOOMSHACKERLACKER
HALF A PERSON
TAWHID

A low draw appears to be wanting in this race but with the lowest number of runners in 11 years that may be unwise to rule out Boomshackerlacker
under this bit 7 out of 10 had won over todays distance and Boom has not.
Three previous winners (last 10 yrs) had just two runs and all won latest over the distance - Half A Person qualifier and has been backed 14's to 10
Tawahid would be only the second winner in 11 years to have won with 3 runs and is not a distance winner.

My cash is on HALF A PERSON with savers on other two

TAWHID wins 9/2 Boomshackerlacker 3rd 9/1 & Half A Person 4th 8/1

Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 154 views ]

3.35 Southwell

25 Oct 12 16:38
An interesting race, especially with Havin A Good Time trying to reverse a head defeat with Fama Mac on 7lb better terms.
Daily Express and Mirror both have Fama Mac as top rated.  The Express also had it top rated when it won latest race.

Surprisingly the to rated spot horse in Express has a seemingly poor record with 5f sprints in low grade (E and F grade)3yo+ Hcps.
Just 4 winners from 37 races since late August 2012.

The Mirror has 11 wins from the same races

When Mirror and Express both have the same horse as top rated the win ratio is 2 from 7

Looking at Betfair betting a layer has input the following bets "in running"
Micky Mac £400 at 5.00
Made In The Shade £400 at 5.00
Molly Jones £400 at 5.00
Irish Bay £500 at 4.00
Pavers Star £1000 at 2.36
Steel City Boy  £500 at 3.7
Greek Islands £1000 at 2.40
Little Suzie  £700 at 3.20
Fama Mac £2000 at 1.78
Having a Good Time £3000 at 1.46

I'm not exactly sure it's the same layer but it does seem that way.
Whether it makes a profit will be known on the result of race, but an interesting method of approach to the race.
The same layer could also have input win bets but unable to assess that area.

Getting back to the race both Fama Mac and Having A Good Time have different jockey aboard for first time today.
The 7lb apprentice may not have got the best out of Fama Mac last time and the form figures over 5f read 2212 which makes one wonder why the trainer did seem to think this was it's best distance sooner.

RESULT; A one horse race won by Having A Good Time
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 134 views ]

CURRENT

24 Oct 12 14:51
Raceform Interactive I normally only subscribe at end of flat season and then input my stuff over winter. That task gets more daunting as the years progress.
Having subscribed to Raceform Interactive this year continually from May I have cut n pasted most of the 10 year race trends.

They are useful occasionally - like the 3yo hcp race that is always won by a current season winner, but again there were 3 selections. Backed them all at varying stakes and fortunately the highest price won.

There is a need to pinpoint the likely winner and then just use the stats as a plus or minus pointer.
Pretty much the same with any system method selection.

Then there are the speed figures and form ratings angles.

The speed figures have been collated and will be input within the year database to see if an edge is there in certain types of races or distance.

Also top spot ratings from Mirror and Express have been incorporated since August.

The latter are proving to be quite interesting but it's early days.

All in all it adds up to Trainer Stats, Race Stats, Speed and Form ratings.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 173 views ]

MIDDLE BIT

24 Oct 12 14:34
Four years ago I kept a record of "Market Movers" but that was too hit n miss.

I've done the Stoute and other Nmkt trainer maiden races and there is little profit to be made in the long run as the winning prices are often odds on low.

I've done the race stats for the better class race meetings covering 30 years and found that indicated more than one runner. Backing 5 runners in a race doesn't prove profitable, so whilst the stats are sometimes useful they are not the end all.

Studied Michael Stoute methods in detail 2 years ago and following that he has had two disasterious seasons since and no profit there either.

Also did Andrew Balding last year and whilst some success has been made, it's not life changing.

Generally I stick with Nmkt trainers but Mark Johnston and Richard Hannon are others to follow.
The Godolphin set up has taken on other trainers with their 2yo's and Johnston, Hannon, Richard Fahey & Co are probably the ones to concentrate on.

There is no simple way to win by betting on horses. It is hard and time consuming work but enjoyable in parts.

It's all about looking for an edge or obtaining good stable information.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 143 views ]

THE BEGINNING

24 Oct 12 12:17
I have followed on from my late Father who was often reading "The Handicap Book" and working out speed figures
Around that time I was avidly following football and the racing results annoucements were a nuisance as they
preceded the football results.

The change came when I was 10 years old and my Mother asked me for a tip.
The "tanner" (6 old pence) went on Mexicali Rose which won at 10/1 and that was the start of my addiction to horse racing.

It wasn't long before I was borrowing my Dads form books and even opened up my own postal racing account with Shermans Bookmakers.

Mu first racecourse bet was when I was 15 at York races, on holiday with my Dad. Joe Sime won the Ebor at 16/1.

When starting work at Shipping Agents Office in Liverpool I would buy a daily newspaper to read on the train.
I become quite an authority on various newspaper horse racing coverage.
Daily Sketch, Herald, Mirror, Mail, Express, Guardian were initial studies but have settled with Mirror and Express as my main racing papers.I also have a high regard for the Mail which I also used in the early years but it's too expensive running three papers.

The early noticeable thing about the Mirror was the number of 2yo Maiden winners over 8 furlongs for John Dunlop when the SF (strongly fancied) was present on the racecard.

My job was to deliver shipping note invoices to the various Shipping Line Offices in Liverpool City. There was often time during the afternoon delivery to pop into the betting offices.

Marraige and children took out a period of time where horse racing was restricited, but my first wife would argue that Form book study was still a priority in those days.

1982 was the start for the basis of keeping data in written format and 1994 started the computerised version.
I now have accumulated a massive amount of racing data under Flat racing trainers and numerous Excel databases.

The information overload is problematic (especially with number of Saturday meetings) to evaluate sometimes and probably too much to keep on top of. That's where the winter months come in handy as less racing on AW allows time for data input. and evaluation.
Rate post:
0 (0 Ratings)
Share |
report
No Comments [ 123 views ]

Page 14 of 14  •  Previous | 1 | ... | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | Next
www.betfair.com