Not much doing yesterday. Laid Mary Mcphee on basis of the Hills record in 2yo mdn fills at Warwick, and watched Roger Charltons Saxon Princess lose as favourite in 3yo hcp at Bath.
As mentioned previously he doesn't do well in the lower grade hcps this month, but alarm bells over the stable form continues.
Today sees Frangipanni try to follow up her win at Lingfield (AW) 22 days ago. She was given a lot to do that day, but at 4/5 fav it might have been an easy race for her - as his first hcp after three unplaced runs as 2yo.
The form has been franked by the 3rd horse that day winning at Brighton, however the 2nd was well beaten at Southwell.
Checking Charlton d/base it seems he has never had a horse that did back to back wins on AW in [b]3yo hcp's[/b] - although Acrobatic (2006)...
Still going with yesterdays theme - Roger Charlton 3yo hcp May month
Today.
NMKT 3.30
Has two runners in this race the Coral Sprint trophy.
He has won it twice in last 12 years (Genki and Mince)
Both those ran after 14 days like [b]Stars Above Me[/b] today
The selection is a filly (like Mince).
The other runner [b]Stomp[/b] is not without chance, as Borehan (2006) was a maiden as 2yo and then won two races prior to Coral win. Boreham had 21 days rest and Stomp only has 8 days (lowest in last 12 years was 10)
On the balance that 8 of the last 12 winners had only won as 2yo's I prefer Stars Above Me - and I'm not keen on apprentice jockeys in these valuable races.
The dangers could come from the previous race though.
Eastern Impact and Meritocracy.
I'm ruling out the winner...
Been away for a nice break.
It's good to get away and come back with a clear head.
I've been waiting for Roger Charlton and 3yo hcp races during May.
Today he runs [b]Hooded[/b] in 4.10 Newbury
Looking back at his winners in this type of race (3yo hcp) in May months trainer has got a fair strike rate in all grades (class) except the two lower (5 & 6)
The jockey today in not the normal choice, and his regulars Joe Doyle rides at York for same owner, whilst George Baker is at Newbury and rides Captain Marmalade in the first race for Charlton.
That starts the warning sign and there are a few more.
Long Break runners don't have such a good record, and Newbury has only provided one winner (Al Kazeem) from at least eight runners.
The only thing going is the owner has had two...