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FLAT RACING

AW Tuesday 27th Jan

27 Jan 15 12:32
Top Scores for Southwell
top    Horse                days    Age
1.35:Y    Teajaybe           223J     7
1.35:nb    Adili               5 v     6

Looks like Mike Appleby has the answer to this race with both runners Top Scores.
Teajaybe coming back from a long break and having first run for trainer. It beat Adili (for Chris Dwyer) over 16f here giving 11 lb and today is 2 lb worse off.
Adili has been top score or NB in all 4 of its races since coming back from a long break on Dec 13th. It has been favourite in last three races. The difference today is it's L2 weight (2nd from Bottom) compared to Top 1 in first two races.
Alistair Rawlinson (5lb) takes the ride today and over it's preferred distance should be the one.

2.10:Y    Abi Scarlet          23     6
Two consecutive wins to overcome. Yes they can do the hatrick, but not very often at Southwell.

I backed Barbs Princess last time and thought George Baker had a bit more in reserve.

2.40:Y    Tartan Trip        46 tv     8
2.40:nb    Toto Skyllachy       25     10 (10yo's in claimers Jan-Feb 2012-14 = 4 wins from 25 races (16%) This year 1 from 6 (Noguchi at Wolver a few days ago)


3.10:Y    Reetaj               49     3 (Not normally a trainer for Southwell maidens, but this was 2nd here Evens fav in Dec)

3.40:Y    Putin              19 tp     7

4.10:Y    Eium Mac           14 b     6
4.10:nb    With Hindsight     7 6x     7
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AW Monday Jan 26th

26 Jan 15 13:40
Looks a dire card today.
Not that keen on anything today.
Mild fancies are Swift Suzie (trainer good with 3yo unexposed sprinters)
Queen Aggie (Top score when pulled out on 5th Jan)

Top Scores
top    Track    Horse          days    Age
2.40:    WOLV    Kodafine     3 6x     4   

3.10:    WOLV    Colombia     14 h     3

3.40Jt    WOLV    Rememberance Day 47 t     4
3.40Jt    WOLV    Mops Angel     21 p     4

4.10    WOLV    Sciustree      10     3
4.10nb    WOLV    Regards             3

4.40    WOLV    Classic Seniority 27     3

5.10Jt    WOLV    Celestial Bay   7     6
5.10Jt    WOLV    Apparatchika   19     4

5.40    WOLV    Monein         23     3
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AW Saturday Jan 22nd

24 Jan 15 12:34
top    FORM    Track    Horse         days    Age
12.50y    44/2-3    LINGA    Belrog        15     4 (how many chances needed to break maiden)

13.25Y    3751-1    LINGA    Caminel    21 b     4 (Stats against hat trick)
13.25nb    5863-2    LINGA    Lujeanie   14 v     9

14.00Y    22-    LINGA    Pathway To Honour 54     3 (trainers other in same race well backed)

14.35Y    33/8-1    LINGA    Ruban      18 t     6

15.10Y    22121-    LINGA    Razor Wind   38     4
15.10nb    02316-    LINGA    Maverick Wave 42     4  (only half point behind top)

15.45Y    066-13    LINGA    Blue Aegean 3 h     3

16.20J    42511-    LINGA    True Course  43     3 (better option imo)
16.20J    54722-    LINGA    The Dapper Tapper 44 v     3

Colin Appleby has 4 top scores today. All have good chances but VERY wary of 2.00 race (which one of his two runners)
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AW Friday Jan 23rd

23 Jan 15 14:50
Top Scores
LINGA
1.30; Inestissement
2.00; co. Vejovis, Ragtime Dancer, Lady Charlie
2.35; BURNT CREAM
3.10; Shyron
3.40; COURSING
4.10; Honourable Action (trainer has 2 in race)

Wolv
4.15: SARLAT This has maximum score. Very unusual in apprentice hcp. The figures for high scores at Wolver in these races doesn't read well BUT 4yo's have a good record when top score.
4.45: La Dorotea
5.15: Mister Bob
5.45: George Baker
6.45: Sixties Queen
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AW Thursday Jan 22nd

22 Jan 15 17:09
1.40;Y    SOUTH    Come Uppence 14 v     3
2.10;Y    SOUTH    Thorpe Bay 2 6x     6
2.40;Y    SOUTH    Pancake Day 14       3
3.10;Y    SOUTH    Danseur Noble 35     3
3.40;Jt    SOUTH    Hot Right Now 301     5 (Long Absence)
3.40;Jt    SOUTH    Queen Of Skies 9     6
4.10;Y    SOUTH    Different Scenario 9 6x 4

Today looks like it could be a day to follow the Appleby brothers 6 top score selections
Thorpe Bay and Queen Of Skies at Southwell
and four further Top Scores at Grt Leighs later
Guishan,It Must Be Faith, Majeyda, and Adili.

GLEIGH
4.40: Arkansas Slim 25
5.10: Oratorio´s Joy 10
5.40: Guishan 9
6.10: It Must Be Faith 11
6.40: Miami Gator 21 v
7.10: Majeyda 55 p
7.40: Adili 20
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AW Weds Jan 21st

21 Jan 15 12:52
Top Scores Today
LINGA
top    Track    Horse         days    Age
12.50Y    LINGA    Violet Dancer 25J     5
1.25Y    LINGA    Golly Miss Molly 32 b     4
2.00Y    LINGA    Ershaad      33     3
2.30Y    LINGA    Mr Bossy Boots 30     4
2.30NB    LINGA    Jungle Bay 34 b     8
3.00Y    LINGA    Castilo Del Diablo 18 p 6
3.00NB    LINGA    Anglophile    5     4
3.35Y    LINGA    Franco´s Secret 7 p     4
3.35NB    LINGA    Club House    5     5
4.05Y    LINGA    Bertie Blu Boy 24 b     7

By the Wednesday system, Violet Dancer,Mr Bossy Boots, Franco's Secret have good chances.

KEMPA
4.30Jt    KEMPA    Littlecote Lady 7 v     6
4.30Jt    KEMPA    Doctor Hilary 34 v     13 Too Old?
5.00Y    KEMPA    Hollie Point 14     3
5.30Y    KEMPA    Millionaires Row 12     4
6.00Y    KEMPA    Moulin Rouge 22     4
6.30Y    KEMPA    Volunteer Point 35     3
7.00Y    KEMPA    St Paul´s Square 7 b     3
7.30Y    KEMPA    Warbond 14 p        7
7.30NB    KEMPA    Youm Jamil 36 t     8
8.00y    KEMPA    Habeshia 15 p       5

By the Wednesday system Moulin Rouge has a good chance.
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AW Tuesday Jan 20th

20 Jan 15 14:14
Todays qualifiers
top    Horse          days    Age
Top    Dubawi Diamond 14 b1     3

Top    General Tufto 7 6xb     10

Jt    Zac Brown 9 6xh     4
Jt    Scarborough 7 6x     4

Jt    The Lock Master 19     8
Jt    Deuce Again   18     4

Top    Baytown Kestrel 47 p     4

Top    Greenhead High 12 v     7
NB    Sleet 7 b     4

General Tufto tries the hat trick of wins as a 10yo.
He surprised me last time.
Only one horse has won so far this year with same scenario -
Sabre Rock.
Thomas Blossom and Tsarglas are recent odds on failures.

A couple of class 2 races at Southwell today
2.30: Zac Brown and Scarborough both have to overcome their penalties. There are not enough such races at Southwell to make a comparison for penalties in this grade.
If one takes the FLAT data (2012-13) in 5f sprints there appears a total absence of winners from 10 races (4 ran 2nd and 4 of those in photo finish) and 9 failed last year (7 races).

I prefer Woolfall Sovereign on its form in this race type.
4 wins and two off the back of a win lto.


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AW Monday Jan 19th

19 Jan 15 14:20
Top Scores Today
1.10 Shawkantango (after non-runner Captain Whoosh)
1.40 Urban Castle
2.10 What Usain
2.40 Warden Bond
3.10 Stanlow NB Spokesperson
3.40 Persona Grata
4.10 Whitchurch
4.40 Park Place

The only study so far completed relates to 4.10 race
Andrew Balding has not had great success with 3yo in maiden races at this time of year (Jan Feb)
The winners that he has had were mostly shorter than todays distance and mainly at Linga.

Mark Johnston doesn't match up either with FTO runners in these races.
That doesn't guarantee that neither will win, but the value is elsewhere imo.

The best today should be Warden Bond.
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AW Sunday Jan 19th

18 Jan 15 13:26
top    Horse                days    Age
1.05:    Indian Affair       22 t     5 These two are both Milton Bradleys runners!
1.05:nb    Hamis Al Bin        22 t     6

1.35:co    Shotgun Start      10 p     5
1.35:co    Baltic Prince        15     5
1.35co    Mambo Spirit         14     11 Too old

2.05:    Barwah            4 6xt     4
2.05:nb    Polar Kite         27 h     7

2.35:    Rock Charm           19     4

3.05:    Evident              11     5 This one has the Maximum score

3.35:    Hallelujah           53     7

4.05:J    Aldeburgh            11     6 spent about 2 hours on this race as result of Robsters  post
4.05:J    Thane Of Cawdor      27     6 I conclude with an unconfident pick with Sexy Secret

4.35:    Tsarglas            16 v     4
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AW Saturday Jan 17th

17 Jan 15 12:54
12.50: Crakehall Lad 13
1.25: Emirates Skycargo 12
2.00:jt  Diamond Charlie 14 p
2.00:jt  Mishaal 51
2.35: Lunar Deity 6
3.10: Thataboy 26
3.45: Azure Amour 26 v1

Lunar Diety has maximum score today
The form does not appear good enough as it's a big jump from class 4 to class 2, but an interesting Jockey booking. The spot is from both sources for this today.
Only 6 days since run is not the normal for winners at this grade.

Tarooq with very similar form as 6yo finished a very close 2nd here in Jan 2012
George Guru (5yo) won in March here same year with similar form

Records over 3 years show that horses with last 2 winning runs do not often win in races over 8f in this grade on AW (Melvin The Grate)

Mild interest in Tom Dascombe who sends three here today (Thataboy)
Recent data shows that on Saturdays Top Scores with CD and high weights can win.
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