SHAPESHIFTER

I went into the week very focused and ready to take on the jumps.

Monday started off solid so I went into Tuesday with the same mind-set and attitude.  Again, equal returns of around 70% ROI.

Wednesday, I looked at the jumps and couldn't grip onto the form.  I drew blanks from all directions and opted for one back that failed in a small field race.

I rely on my ratings heavily for the flat but yesterday, I found several horses with solid pace but no finishing.  One after another, they were in the mix, some in the lead, till the pace quickened and ate away at the week's earlier gains.

I know I've mentioned it before, but the summer racing that is riddled with 'good to soft', 'soft' and 'heavy' making the search for consistent and improving horses is difficult.

Hopefully the overall results will be more like Monday and Tuesday than Wednesday.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 15-November
Strike rates
Kempton: 11 meetings: 17 for 23 (74%)
Southwell: 8 meetings: 10 for 12 (83%)



Southwell
3:50 Koo And The Gang (4th of 14)

Early Price: Koo And The Gang 3.70

Taunton
1:40 Josh's Dreamway (4th of 11)

Early prices: Josh's Dreamway 4.00

SUMMARY Both selections landed for the day, both outside the frame.  Lays remain 100% for the week.  November is 14 for 17 (82%)




STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:25 Mohair (6th) -1.00
4:55 Kalokagathia (2nd/odds on) -1.00
6:25 Lean On Pete (5th) -1.00
7:25 Summer Isles EW (7th) -1.00
7:55 Good Luck Charm EW (1st BFSP 7.00/2.43) +3.70

Ludlow
1:30 Silver Coaster EW (pulled up) -1.00
2:00 Satou (2nd by 3 1/2 lengths) -1.00


Southwell
12:20 Where's Reiley EW (6th) -1.00
12:50 Equitania (1st BFSP 1.64) +0.60
1:20 Nelina (2nd) -1.00
1:50 Queen Cassiopeia EW (10th) -1.00
2:20 Sleepy Blue Ocean EW (3rd BFSP 7.16/2.42) +0.20


Taunton
1:40 Adiynara EW (2nd BFSP 11.27/3.11) +.55
3:40 3:40 Thirtytwo Red EW (pulled up) -1.00

SUMMARY Overall, another poor showing of selections taking back this weeks gains and more.  Only 4 of 14 selections returned dividends.  A 14 point LSP risk would have produced a loss of -5.00


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Yesterday was the second day running of around 70% ROI on the day.

Today, selections from both the all weather and jumps.

With Southwell kicking off early, I am posting the early selections then the balance later.



WEAK FAVES FOR 14-November
Strike rates
Southwell: 7 meetings: 9 for 11 (82%)
Kempton: 11 meetings: 17 for 23 (74%)


Southwell
12:50 Pearl Noir (2nd)

Early prices: Pearl Noir 3.80

SUMMARY 1 for 1 on the day.  Pearl Noir remained favourite going off at 2/1, in touch till the final furlong.  Lays remain at 100% for the week.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Bangor
1:00 Pampelonne (3rd) -1.00

KEMPTON
4:25 Renegotiate (2nd by 3.75L) -1.00
5:25 Clear Praise EW (5th) -1.00
6:55 Emperor Julius (2nd by 2.75L) -1.00 
7:55 Santefisio EW (2nd BFSP 10.10/2.96) +0.45


Southwell
12:20 Supersticion EW (5th) -1.00
1:20 Sehnsucht (4th) -1.00
2:20 Roland EW (5th) -1.00

SUMMARY After two days of dividends returning 70% ROI, another set of disappointing returns on the all weather.  Santefisio ran a solid race after drifting to 9/1 but came up half a length short over the seven furlongs.  And LSP investment of 8 points would have returned a loss of -6.55 


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A reasonable start to a 'full day' of jump selections on Monday with two winners and around 70% ROI on the day.

I have posted all of Huntingdon.

I have posted the first three races at Lingfield and Sedgefield and will post the balance shortly.

Good luck with your day.



WEAK FAVES FOR 13-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Huntingdon
12:50 Blackwater King (result: 2nd by 1.5 lengths)
1:20 Petara Bay (4th of 10)

Early Price: Blackwater King 1.90 / Petara Bay 3.90

SUMMARY 2 for 2 with 'weak fave' selections.  Blackwater King went off did drift past 2.00 before the off but ran a one-paced race and beaten by the 4F in the race.  Petara Bay held steady in the market and went off favourite, finishing last of the top three in the betting.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

HUNTINGDON
1:40 Honest John EW (1st: BFSP 3.72 / 2.34 ) +2.00
2:10 Sparville EW (3rd: BFSP 38.00 / 3.60) +0.80
3:10 Countess Comet (3rd) -1.00

Lingfield
1:00 Hidden Identity (1st: BFSP 1.99) +0.95
2:00 Dunlough Bay EW (1st: BFSP 9.00 / 1.83) +4.40

Sedgefield
1:50 Schinken Otto EW (pulled up) -1.00
3:20 Carpincho EW (4th) -1.00

SUMMARY A decent day with two of the three tracks paying dividends.  2 of the 3 winners on the day were EW plays, Honest John pushed into co-fave at the off after being available at 5/1 earlier.  4 of 7 horses paid dividends.  An LSP investment of 7 points would have returned +5.15 (70% ROI)

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The time has come to ease into the jumps more.

With form slowly building from the last 45 days of racing, the ability to compare horses and their competition is still difficult.  But I do have three years of solid ratings and track info that works as a foundation, as well.

When either backing or laying the fave's, it depended heavily on the rest of the field.

When backing, I'll work towards eliminating the competition when their ratings indicate that it would take significant improvement on recent or similar runs to challenge the top in the betting.  When laying, it meant that the fave had had little pressure on previous runs coupled with good and consistant ratings across a portion of the field.

Looking at last year, when taking on the hurdles and chases, I did best by finding each way plays. 

As mentioned before, if I have doubts in a fave, it does not necessarily mean 'lay'.  It can be an indicator of looking elsewhere in the race for a value play.  An example would be the Carlisle 12:50 where I have doubts about Tipsy Dara but feel the 1 point risk to back another is more value.

Best of luck with your week.

SUMMARY NOVEMBER TO DATE

'Weak fave' selections: 5 to 9 November
9 successful for 12 selections: 75%

Recommendations to back
12 of 32 selections paid dividends (38%)
5 winners (15%)
An LSP wager of 32 points would have returned a loss of -2.60 at BFSP



WEAK FAVES FOR 12-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

No 'Weak faves' for Southwell or Carlisle today.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Carlisle
12:50 Fog Patches (2nd) -1.00
2:25 Across The Bay (1st BFSP 1.97) +0.95
2:55 Julia Too (unplaced) -1.00

Southwell
1:45 Robbie EW (1st BFSP 9.07/1.95) +4.98
2:45 Gougane EW (2nd BFSP 8.20/2.00) +0.00

SUMMARY First 'full time' day taking on the jumping meetings.  2 winners and an EW return dividends. An LSP risk of 5 pts would return +3.90 (78% ROI) 

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SUMMARY OF THE WEEK

'Weak fave' selections: 5 to 9 November
9 successful for 12 selections: 75%

Recommendations to back
12 of 32 selections paid dividends (38%)
5 winners (15%)
An LSP wager of 32 points would have returned a loss of -2.60 at BFSP

The blog is published Monday to Friday



WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS: 9-NOV

The end of an 'up, down and side ways' week. 

I spent the week watching the jumps and watching how my reads went against the tracks.  To date, I am finding it easier to see how results came about, pinpointing the past performances that carried weight on the day.  I think this comes down to the weather that affected the summer flats. 

So next week, I will integrate in more jumps while continuing to focus on the all-weather and the remain flat meetings.

I'm posting the first six at Wolverhampton but will put up recommendations for the last two races shortly.


WEAK FAVES FOR 9-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Wolverhampton: 15 meetings: 24 for 29 (85%)

Wolverhampton
5:50 Space Artist (1st by 1 3/4 L BFSP 1.90)
6:20 Elegant Muse (10th of 12)

SUMMARY One for two on the evening.  The withdrawal of Imperial Spirit at the off reduced the race to five runners and the price by 25%.


Early Price: Space Artist 2.40 / Elegant Muse 4.60



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Wolverhampton
4:20 Mcmonagle EW (4th) -1.00
4:50 Crazy Too (4th) -1.00
5:20 Far East EW (2nd BFSP 5.26/1.81) -0.10
6:20 Piccolo Express EW (6th) -1.00
6:50 Clapped EW (4th) -1.00
7:20 Pass Muster EW (3rd BFSP 5.26/1.69) -0.15
7:50 Gran Canaria Queen EW (11th) -1.00

SUMMARY Despite several horses featuring in the race, no joy on the selections with only two recouping part of the investment by landing in the frame.

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I'm still getting used to the fall schedule plus spending time preparing to take on the jumps and hurdles more so the 'writer' will be back soon.

Yesterday, both selected 'weak faves' were landed but despite starting the day with a 5/1 winning back, the balance of the day took back those gains and 2 pts more. 

Again, because of the early start, I will be posting Lingfield 'live' betweeen now and 2PM.

I will be looking at Wolverhampton's races this afternoon and will update the blog.

So, essentially, the blog is 'live' so do check in for updates.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 8-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Lingfield: 11 meetings: 19 for 25 (76%)

Wolverhampton: 14 meetings: 24 for 28 (86%)

Lingfield
3:10 Muhdiq (1st: BFSP 5.56)
4:10 Beauty Pageant (result: 2nd)

Early Price: Muhdiq 4.80 / Beauty Pageant 4.40


Wolverhampton
4:50 Archie Stevens (1st BFSP 4.10) (by 3 lengths)

Early Price: Archie Stevens 4.60

SUMMARY November's 'streak' ended in the 3:10 with Muhdiq winning by a head.  Note: I took the horse on in October when it won by a nose!).  Overall, one for three successful calls at the two all-weather tracks.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:40 Lorraine EW (unplaced) -1.00
1:40 Source Of Light EW (unplaced) -1.00
4:10 Rylee Mooch* EW (3rd BFSP 4.80 / 2.10) +0.05
   *went fave - available earlier at 5/1


Wolverhampton
5:50 Pertemps Networks EW (3rd BFSP 9.40 / 3.10) +0.55
7:50 Four Leaves (1st: BFSP 3.38) +2.40

SUMMARY Success at Wolverhampton after a mediocre afternoon.  Source Of Light, again, lacking finishing despite the step back in distance and Rylee Mooch landed the EW after being shortened at the off.  5 pts LSP would have returned +1.00 (20% ROI)


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With the early start, I will post the first few for Nottingham then will update the blog.

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WEAK FAVES FOR 7-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Kempton: 10 meetings: 16 for 22 (73%)
Nottingham: 3 meetings: 4 for 4 (100%)

Kempton
4:55 Inthar (result: 2nd)

Early prices: Inthar 3.10


Nottingham
1:10 Blue Lotus (6th of 8)

Early prices: Blue Lotus 3.35

SUMMARY 2 for 2 with selections today.  Both horses were favourites at the off.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:25 Blank Czech (2nd by 6 lengths) -1.00
4:55 Tuscania EW (4th) -1.00
5:55 Swift Bounty (2nd by 3/4 Lengths) -1.00
7:55 Merchants Return EW (5th) -1.00


Nottingham
12:10 Steel Rain (result: 1st BFSP 6.05) +5.00
1:10 Balinka EW (unplaced) -1.00
2:40 Colonial (4th of 5) -1.00
3:50 Follow The Flag EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY The day started with a 5/1 winner (drifting from 7/2) but was followed by seven unsuccessful bets over two meetings.  8 pts wagered would have returned a LSP result of -2.00 (-25% ROI)

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A question I received:

"If you are making an EW selection, does that mean that the favourite is a lay?"

When you are laying a single selection, unless the odds are less than 2.0, you are betting 'odds on' that the field will beat your lay.

From the perspective of 'backing', the discussion always leads to "value" and "long term" when it comes to betting odds on.

Whether it be horses, football or any event, I go through 'stages' when deciding how to bet.  I realized that if you spend time researching an event, you need maximize your potential.  For example, in football, it comes down to not just betting 1X2 but looking at several bets and finding the value.  It can come down to a selection of two or more bets and investing accordingly.

Last Sunday, I took Liverpool to win but also took HT/FT as DRAW/LIVERPOOL.  I expected a draw at half time and for Liverpool to regroup for the second half.  Newcastle scored at 43 minutes.  So when doing the post-mortem, my 'analysis' was possibly within 2 minutes of going into the second half with an potential 4/1 HT/FT bet and/or the option of turning it into a 'no risk' 3/1 bet.

So once I have identified a fave that I have doubts on, it is a matter of finding the support on the day.  This means looking at the horses ratings on several selected races and comparing to the field.  Once this is done, if the ratings aren't 100% conclusive, then it is a matter of comparing the potential of the fave against the field and finding the horse that when looked at head-to-head is equal or better making it either a value back or value EW.

A reminder, as well, is that I take my readings in the morning and again around 10:30.  So a horse that is a fave then is not necessarily a fave at the off.

So answering the question, if I put up an each way for you to consider, it means that, yes, I have doubts on the fave but perhaps not enough to lay it and/or I feel that when looking at the field, I consider the back or EW play as value.

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PLEASE NOTE: I am putting up Southwell right away then will be posting additional selections later this afternoon for the three other meetings


WEAK FAVES FOR 6-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Redcar: 2 meetings: 4 for 5 (80%)
Southwell: 6 meetings: 6 for 8 (75%)

Redcar
1:30 Goldmadchen (7th of 8)
**added 1:06

Early prices: Goldmadchen 4.20


Southwell
1:10 Birdy Boy (result: 4th)
3:10 Mason Hindmarsh (3rd)
3:40 Place That Face (3rd)

Early prices: Birdy Boy 4.50 / Mason Hindmarsh 4.60 / Place That Face 3.25

SUMMARY All four lays landed with two of the four remaining favourites at the off.




STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Redcar
4:00 Tadalavil EW (8th) -1.00
**added 3:11

Southwell
12:40 Applaude EW (result: 4th) -1.00
1:40 Fayr Fall EW (1st BFSP: 6.95 / 2.60) +3.80
2:10 Pendragon EW (2nd BFSP: 5.75 / 1.19)[/i] -.40
2:40 Tyson The Byson EW (unplaced) -1.00 
4:10 Catalyze (5th) -1.00 

SUMMARY One winner and one in the frame.  Pendragon came close to ending La Estrella's winning streak at Southwell.  6 points wagered would have resulted in a loss of -.60 (-10% ROI)


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Last week, a great few days with the family. 

Though more time was spent exploring the woods of Hebden Bridge with Shapeshifter jr, watching him on his new bike and cooking with Princess Shapeshifter, I did manage to work on getting prepared for the winter ahead.

I looked at last year and saw how I had focused on the all weather, the best results coming more after Christmas than before.  The difference between last November and now is a year's more experience which will hopefully give some momentum into the new year.

I'm still watching rather than playing the jumps as much.  That said, last Thursday and Friday, the break that gave me 'fresh eyes' and a couple of solid each way plays were landed boosting my confidence.

Looking over the past few months, I see that the success of taking on fave's comes down to depth of form.  Whenever a fave that I flagged up won, I can usually find where the read went wrong.  And though I've said it before, where the value often comes when putting a line through the top horse in the betting is to find the best in the remainder and back rather than the odds on lay.

Roll on November.

WEAK FAVES FOR 5-November
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

October Strike rate: 41 for 56 (73%)

Strike rates:
Wolverhampton: 13 meetings: 23 for 27 (85%)

Wolverhampton
3:20 High Time Too (result: 3rd)

Early prices: High Time Too 3.30

SUMMARY Despite being prominent in the race, High Time Too finishes 3rd by 1 and 1/2 lengths



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

1:45 Waabel EW (result: 3rd BFSP 12.00 / 3.80) +0.90
2:25 Athwaab EW (unplaced) -1.00
2:50 Powerful Wind** EW (2nd BFSP: 5.70 / 1.83) -0.10
**Added 2:25 after watching first two races
3:55 Aragorn Rouge (1st BFSP 2.50) +1.50
4:25 Wolf Heart EW (unplaced) -1.00
5:25 Badea EW (1st: BFSP 7.20 / 2.70) +3.95

SUMMARY Six selections on the all weather today with two winners and two paying dividends landing in the frame. 6 points wagered would have returned an LSP of +4.25 (71% ROI)


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I will be away for the start of the week and will return either Thursday 1-November or Friday.

Best of luck with your week

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Wednesday offered up a variety of backs that ran well and paid dividends.

Current Event (2:10) was based on value against ratings.  All the horses had ratings that could improve but against the price, I felt was a value EW play.  The horse felt otherwise and was never in contention.

Hoarding (3:05) After eliminating the rest of the field for various reasons, the bet came down to head to head against So Beloved on my own ratings, the 2F proving a consistent performer over a variety of conditions.

No No Bingo (4:30) was an evens shot but when looking at the race, I could not find any horse that I thought would threaten. 

Two of the EW's showed where looking at the context of a performance rather than the result as presented can find value;

River D'Or (3:25) was around 9/2 before drifting into EW price. When looking at the last race, it was 3rd by 25 lengths.  But against the stop watch and conditions that day, the run produced an excellent time.  Yesterday, a solid second behind Venetian Lad.  I haven't done the ratings yet but yesterday is probably a true barometer of River D'Or.

Hippy Hippy Shake (4:45) was the find of the day.  After a summer that produced a win and two 2nd's, the horse finished 9th on softer ground earlier this month.  But the race had a winning time that was one of the best of the day against the conditions. More importantly,  Hippy Hippy Shake's '9th' was only around 1.5 seconds off behind the winner.

It's a matter of putting the results into context rather than what the basics of the form present.

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Yesterday, only one 'weak fave' on offer.  And a mistake on my part.

I put too much emphasis on the last two runs by Shrewd.  A closer look at the July win and the field that day indicated that the effort produced that day was truer to form.

Simply a bad selection.

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Today, with Princess Shapeshifter home from school, an excuse to just watch the jumps and focus my limited time on the all weather races today.

I'm still finding the lack of form a challenge to make research on the jumps efficient.

WEAK FAVES FOR 25-OCTOBER
Selections based on the quality of the fields in their previous races

Strike rates:
Southwell: 5 meetings: 6 for 7 (86%)
Wolverhampton: 13 meetings: 23 for 27 (85%)

Southwell
3:35 Havin A Good Time (1st: BFSP 2.78)

Early prices: Havin A Good Time 3.25

SUMMARY Another day of only one selection that won by 5 lengths

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Southwell
2:30 Roman Order (3rd) -1.00
4:05 Infinitum  (1st BFSP 2.27) +1.25
4:40 Honest Deal EW (4th/unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one horse of three paying dividends.  Roman Order faded from contention after a steady pace.  Honest Deal, with the race but one paced towards the finish.  LSP of 3 points would have returned a loss of -0.75.


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