SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday, a 'misread' on Taunton as both 'weak faves' won well.  Even my winning NAP, Changing Times, was challenged the whole race finally getting relief when  Rajdhani Express fell when preparing the sprint challenge.

It happens and you can't carry it into the next day.


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WEAK FAVES FOR 14-December

Strike rates:

Lingfield
12:40 Rome (Result: 3rd)
1:10 Derwentwater (unplaced)

EARLY PRICES: Rome 3.15 / Derwentwater 4.2


SUMMARY Two successful calls brings brings December to a strike rate of 8 for 11 (73%)



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STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

BANGOR
12:30 Entertain Me (pulled up) -1.00
1:35 Josies Orders EW (unplaced) -1.00
2:45 Lean Burn (unplaced) -1.00

Cheltenham
3:05 Sivola De Sivola EW (unplaced) -1.00

Lingfield
1:10 Pippy EW (7th) -1.00
2:20 Lowther (1st) +1.00

Wolverhampton
4:50 Epic Storm EW (8th) -1.00
5:20 Avon Supreme EW (3rd BFSP 9.64/2.70) +0.30
7:20 Hawk Moth EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY No profit on any of the four courses.  The 'goal' to be selective on evens selections was successful. But, overall, a day that gave back this week's gains and, at a glance, a touch more.  A LSP wager of 9 points would have returned a loss of -5.70


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Around the third week of November, I was looking over my win selections.  For horses 5/2 or less, I was more or less at 'break even.'  True, it makes your strike-rate look good with 50 or 60% but the returns and ROI were flat.

I dug through my notes and found that I had once jotted down "2 for 3, 3 for 5, 4 for 7..." and wondered if it came down to volume or being selective to manage a strike rate that would return a profit.  The question in the margin: 'Is it worth the time??'

I consider 'time' more valuable than money.  Call it age. Call it too many times traveling hours in a van across Canada or the States only to perform to four people who are playing pinball while your band thrashes it out as though you are at Glastonbury.

Call it too many times where I've said "that was a waste of time". 

In 1982, I wanted to 'sue' my friend, Al McKay, for $14 and two hours of my life, the cost of my ticket to see New Order on his recommendation.  I also felt that time was owed when movie theaters started having multi-plex's and filled most of the screens with crap, your selection sold out so you waste your life watching a Wesley Snipes movie.

For betting, it is the time researching an event.  For football, I will dutch between the 1X2 and a second market to get the price to average up past 2.00.  If you think a team is going to win, you need to find that they will win by 2 or more goals so you should be confident enough to play the Asian market.  Or you should be looking at HT/FT. 

More and more, if I can't return 110% or more, it just doesn't seem like a 'profitable investment'.

And I've decided it isn't about 'volume' to achieve 3 for 5 or 4 for 7 or 5 for 8.  My approach has been to be selective.

So when I see evens or 5/4 or less, I will look at it but initially as a lay.  Then, if I can't take it on or the support isn't in the field, then I'll see how big the margin of victory will be yesterday.

The last time I bet 'evens' on the horses was 29-November.  Yesterday, Kalokagathia stood out at 2.05. I looked at it from several angles and kept coming to the same conclusion that the margin was there.

I watched as the odds moved in which, being on at 2.00, was fine with me.  But I hate seeing odds on races either way.

The horse won and won by 4 lengths over market-mover Excellent Gem.  A winning bet but not a race I enjoyed. 

But, as of 12-December, 1-0 on evens bets for the month which, based on what I have jotted down for 5/4 or better on all races, is a decent result.


UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening

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WEAK FAVES FOR 13-December

Strike rates:

Kempton: 14 meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)
Taunton: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)


Kempton
4:00 Ishigunnaeatit (Result: 2nd of 5)

Early Prices: Ishigunnaeatit 3.20

Taunton
2:50 Home Run (1st BFSP 3.91)
3:20 Marshal Zhukov (1st BFSP 3.05)

Early Prices: Home Run 3.40 / Marshal Zhukov 3.35

SUMMARY 1 for 3 on the day.  Totally mis-read how both horses would run at Taunton, expecting an early pace to wear them down but it didn't.  Kempton's selection was successful and the race panned out as expected.  Dutching the other two principle runners would have returned around 75% more on the race. 

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:30 Roland EW (unplaced) -1.00
5:30 True To Form EW (2nd BFSP 7.80/2.83) +0.40
7:00 Corporal Maddox EW (unplaced) -1.00

Taunton
1:20 Kahsabelle EW (result: unplaced) -1.00
1:50 Changing Times (1st BFSP 4.30) +3.10
2:50 Going Nowhere Fast EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY A slight loss on the day with one winning selection and one each-way paying dividends.  A LSP risk of 6 points would have returned a loss of -.50 (-8% ROI)


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With the exception of weekend football, it was the first day back since Thursday and my mind was 'refreshed'.

But when I first sat down to look for 'faves' to take on, I couldn't read it so I switched gears and focused on the selections to back.

Last night, the post-mortem showed the fine-line between a decent and incredible day.

The four horses that all placed were collectively just 1.40 seconds from winning.  Lisheen Hill finished .40 outside the frame but 4.70 seconds from winning over the traveled distance of 21 and a half furlongs.

So strike rate and net gains aside, I'm happy with the read.  I've had days where I've had little or no returns and have done the same gauge and found that it came down to fractions between profit and loss.

It can also indicate that despite having no or little returns on the day, you can do a decent job on the read.

UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your day

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WEAK FAVES FOR 12-December

Strike rates:

Kempton: 14 meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)
Lingfield: 14 meetings: 21 for 29 (72%)


Lingfield
3:30 Breakheart (result: 10th of 10)

Early Prices: Breakheart 3.50

SUMMARY Breakheart remained fave though drifted slightly in the market.  December selections now 6 for 7.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
2:45 Kalokagathia (result 1st BFSP 1.61) +0.60 *had been available at 2.00 earlier
3:15 Secret Rebel EW (6th) -1.00
4:15 Run It Twice EW (5th) -1.00
4:45 Spensley EW (6th) -1.00

Lingfield
1:00 Thecornishcowboy (7th) -1.00
2:30 Jack Whos He (5th) -1.00
3:30 Refreshestheparts EW (1st BFSP 5.24/1.84) +2.50

SUMMARY Just two winners from seven selections today.  Kalokagathia won by four lengths moving from 2.00 in the betting.  Refreshestheparts won in a hands and heels race though I had expected the price to move out to 5/1.  A LSP risk of 7 points would have returned a loss of around -2.00 (-28% ROI) 


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Back after taking Friday and Monday off.

Last week went well, focusing hard on the criteria and being more selective on the races I researched.  A matter of putting lines through races and narrowing it down to half the card to spend time on.

I also returned to an approach I had that if I couldn't start getting a 'view' on the race after about 7 minutes, I moved on.

5 of 6 'weak faves' successful and +50% on ROI for backs says it's an approach for me.

UPDATES: All selections are up.  Good luck with your week
 
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WEAK FAVES FOR 11-December

There are no 'weak fave' selections today

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Fontwell
2:40 Invicta Lake EW (result: 1st BFSP 7.36/2.73)[/i] +4.00

Lingfield
12:30 Renoirs Lady (3rd) -1.00
1:00 Putin EW (2nd BFSP 8.55/2.52) +0.25
1:30 Efistorm EW (1st BFSP 6.83/1.95) +3.30
3:30 Stetson (2nd) -1.00

Sedgefield
12:50 Lisheen Hill EW (4th) -1.00
1:50 Lightening Rod (2nd) -1.00

SUMMARY 2 of 3 tracks were in profit.  With just two winners from seven selections and one EW paying dividends, the day finished in profit.  A LSP risk of 7 points would have returned +3.50 (50% ROI)

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Weak faves & Value Plays is posted Monday to Friday prior to the days racing


Stats for 3 to 7 December

Note: selections were posted for four days this week.


WEAK FAVES
6 selections
5 successful

Strike-rate: 83%
Strike-rate - last 20: 17 for 20 (85%)


SELECTIONS TO BACK

Selections: 14
Winners: 4 (strike-rate 29%)
Selections paying dividends (including winners): 7 (strike-rate 50%)

NET PROFIT (LSP): +7.90
ROI (LSP): 56%

Tonight is SHAPESHIFTER JR's eighth birthday.  His request: A "Secret spy sleepover" with a James Bond movie.

So my priority is to make it memorable so taking Friday off.  Will be back on Monday.



WEAK FAVES & VALUE PLAYS: 6-DEC

Yesterday another example of the line between a solid return.  Two of the four selections coming second.  See The Storm finishing 3 lengths ahead of Amis Reunis but couldn't catch the ten year old Gallantry while Loyal Royal came second to the gamble of the race, Commanche, who moved to 7/2 at the off. 

 
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WEAK FAVES FOR 6-December

Strike rates:
Lingfield: 14 meetings: 21 for 29 (72%)
Wincanton: No meetings to date

Lingfield
1:55 Lokis Strike (unplaced)

Early Price: Lokis Strike 3.85

Wincanton
1:40 Typhon De Guye (3rd)

Early Price: Typhon De Guye 3.25

SUMMARY Both horses went off fave and both were supported in the market.  2 for 2 on the day brings the week to 5 for 6.





STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Lingfield
12:25 Shaunas Spirit EW (3rd 15.00/4.30) +1.10
1:25 Martial Art (4th) -1.00
2:25 Swiss Cross (1st BFSP 7.09) +5.75

SUMMARY Martial Art disappointed after being bet into fave. Shauna's Spirit gave a solid run after drifting in the market but no extra in the end.  Swiss Cross drifted from 4/1 out to 6/1 but ran as expected and won.  A LSP risk of 3 points would return a profit of +5.85 (190% ROI)


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Yesterday's markets was populated by odds on faves.

In all, there were nine over the twenty-two races yesterday.  Five had opened up odds on while four moved in after starting the day above evens.

Of the five that opened up odds on, three won.  Of the four moved in, the money proved right on only one of the selections.

Both the odds on faves at Wolverhampton won.

I consciously passed on all the odds on bets.  With Angle Hill, the ratings I had and the quality of its previous competition stood out and it took little to spot the potential lay.   Otherwise, I can spend too much time looking at the form which is usually strong, then spend too much time trying to decide if it represents value only clouding the potential value in other races.

So I focused on the balance of the card and found two winners at decent prices that ended up returning 80% ROI.

Hopefully I can maintain the same focus and approach the next time the markets are loaded with odds on 'temptation'.

 
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WEAK FAVES FOR 5-December

Strike rates:
Kempton: 14 meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)

5:20 Lyric Piece (result: 4th of 8)

Early Price: Lyric Piece 4.00

SUMMARY Just one play on the late afternoon card.  Lyric Piece remained favourite at the bookmakers but drifted to 4F at Betfair.  The successful call brings the week to 3 for 4 (75%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

3:50 Dubawi Island (4th) -1.00
5:50 Loyal Royal EW (2nd BFSP 9.37/2.78) +0.40
6:50 See The Storm (2nd) -1.00
7:20 The New Black EW (5th) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one horse paid dividends.  See The Storm was beaten by 10 year old Gallantry while Loyal Royal was beaten by Comanche who was the gambled in favourite.  A LSP risk of 4 points would have resulted in a loss of -2.60


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Mixed emotions about Monday. 

For Passionada, the horse needed a 'perfect run' to win the race and Robert Winston did just that.  Watching jockey's battling the outside draw this year, too many put their horses under pressure early on to get to position.  I watched the replay and RW took the horse across and realized from the first strides, he wouldn't grab the early lead and settled the horse into a manageable pace and sailed into a comfortable position.  No extra energy used to do so and the race was under control.

For backs, I was happy with the selections though Zaheeb lost to Rapid Water who nicked the win at the line. 

It only hilites that 'fine line' between steady gains and a solid winning day.


UPDATES: All selections up.  Additional BACK at Wolverhampton added at 2:30



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WEAK FAVES FOR 4-December

Strike rates
Towcester: No meetings to date
Wolverhampton: 18 meetings: 27 for 34 (79%)


Towcester
1:50 Angles Hill (Result: 3rd)

Early Price: Angles Hill 1.88

SUMMARY Just one selection on the day that was successful finishing 3rd.  The week is now 2 for 3.



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Folkestone
1:30 Quix EW (Pulled up) -1.00
3:00 Spot The Ball (1st BFSP 2.80) +1.80

Towcester
12:45 L'eldorado (1st BFSP 4.70) +3.60

Wolverhampton
5:10 Fortunate Bid EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY On a day where 9 of 22 favourites were odds on, none were included in today's selections.  2 of 4 selections won.  A LSP risk of 4 points would have returned +3.40 (80% ROI)


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I spent part of the weekend going over November, the pluses and minuses, using the new month as the spring board to take my approach a little further.

I'll bring some 'analysis' over the coming days.  In the meantime, a few selections to ease into the week and the new month.




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WEAK FAVES FOR 3-December

Strike rates
Wolverhampton: 17 meetings: 26 for 32 (81%)

Wolverhampton
1:55 Passionada (result: 1st BFSP 3.75)
4:30 Bubbly Bailey (unplaced)

Early prices: Passionada 3.60, Bubbly Bailey 4.10

SUMMARY 1 for 2 on 'weak faves' after Passionada runs a solid race against a difficult draw

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
2:50 April Fool (result: NR)
4:20 Zaheeb EW (2nd BFSP 7.40/2.58) +0.25

Plumpton
3:10 Beware Chalk Pit EW (1st BFSP 4.38 /  1.61) +2.00

Wolverhampton
1:55 Colourbearer EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY With April Fool NR, was left with three EW plays.  Beware Chalk Pit moved into 2F on the market after being available at 5/1 earlier.  Zaheeb was pipped at the line by Rapid Water.  A LSP wager of 3 points would have returned +1.25 (42% ROI)


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100% with 'weak faves' selection yesterday.  For the second day, I had a 20% strike rate with backs. 


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WEAK FAVES FOR 30-November

Doncaster

1:55 Tahiti Pearl (result: 2nd)
3:05 Honest John (1st BFSP 5.23)

Early Prices: Tahiti Pearl 3.80, Honest John 4.20

SUMMARY  1 for 2 on the day.  Honest John drifted then made all in the race.  There were 36 'weak fave' selections of which 28 were successful with a strike rate of 78% for November.


STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK


There were no calls on Friday


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