SHAPESHIFTER

Around the third week of November, I was looking over my win selections.  For horses 5/2 or less, I was more or less at 'break even.'  True, it makes your strike-rate look good with 50 or 60% but the returns and ROI were flat.

I dug through my notes and found that I had once jotted down "2 for 3, 3 for 5, 4 for 7..." and wondered if it came down to volume or being selective to manage a strike rate that would return a profit.  The question in the margin: 'Is it worth the time??'

I consider 'time' more valuable than money.  Call it age. Call it too many times traveling hours in a van across Canada or the States only to perform to four people who are playing pinball while your band thrashes it out as though you are at Glastonbury.

Call it too many times where I've said "that was a waste of time". 

In 1982, I wanted to 'sue' my friend, Al McKay, for $14 and two hours of my life, the cost of my ticket to see New Order on his recommendation.  I also felt that time was owed when movie theaters started having multi-plex's and filled most of the screens with crap, your selection sold out so you waste your life watching a Wesley Snipes movie.

For betting, it is the time researching an event.  For football, I will dutch between the 1X2 and a second market to get the price to average up past 2.00.  If you think a team is going to win, you need to find that they will win by 2 or more goals so you should be confident enough to play the Asian market.  Or you should be looking at HT/FT. 

More and more, if I can't return 110% or more, it just doesn't seem like a 'profitable investment'.

And I've decided it isn't about 'volume' to achieve 3 for 5 or 4 for 7 or 5 for 8.  My approach has been to be selective.

So when I see evens or 5/4 or less, I will look at it but initially as a lay.  Then, if I can't take it on or the support isn't in the field, then I'll see how big the margin of victory will be yesterday.

The last time I bet 'evens' on the horses was 29-November.  Yesterday, Kalokagathia stood out at 2.05. I looked at it from several angles and kept coming to the same conclusion that the margin was there.

I watched as the odds moved in which, being on at 2.00, was fine with me.  But I hate seeing odds on races either way.

The horse won and won by 4 lengths over market-mover Excellent Gem.  A winning bet but not a race I enjoyed. 

But, as of 12-December, 1-0 on evens bets for the month which, based on what I have jotted down for 5/4 or better on all races, is a decent result.


UPDATE: All selections are up.  Good luck with your evening

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WEAK FAVES FOR 13-December

Strike rates:

Kempton: 14 meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)
Taunton: 1 meeting: 3 for 3 (100%)


Kempton
4:00 Ishigunnaeatit (Result: 2nd of 5)

Early Prices: Ishigunnaeatit 3.20

Taunton
2:50 Home Run (1st BFSP 3.91)
3:20 Marshal Zhukov (1st BFSP 3.05)

Early Prices: Home Run 3.40 / Marshal Zhukov 3.35

SUMMARY 1 for 3 on the day.  Totally mis-read how both horses would run at Taunton, expecting an early pace to wear them down but it didn't.  Kempton's selection was successful and the race panned out as expected.  Dutching the other two principle runners would have returned around 75% more on the race. 

STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

Kempton
4:30 Roland EW (unplaced) -1.00
5:30 True To Form EW (2nd BFSP 7.80/2.83) +0.40
7:00 Corporal Maddox EW (unplaced) -1.00

Taunton
1:20 Kahsabelle EW (result: unplaced) -1.00
1:50 Changing Times (1st BFSP 4.30) +3.10
2:50 Going Nowhere Fast EW (unplaced) -1.00

SUMMARY A slight loss on the day with one winning selection and one each-way paying dividends.  A LSP risk of 6 points would have returned a loss of -.50 (-8% ROI)


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