SHAPESHIFTER

Yesterday's markets was populated by odds on faves.

In all, there were nine over the twenty-two races yesterday.  Five had opened up odds on while four moved in after starting the day above evens.

Of the five that opened up odds on, three won.  Of the four moved in, the money proved right on only one of the selections.

Both the odds on faves at Wolverhampton won.

I consciously passed on all the odds on bets.  With Angle Hill, the ratings I had and the quality of its previous competition stood out and it took little to spot the potential lay.   Otherwise, I can spend too much time looking at the form which is usually strong, then spend too much time trying to decide if it represents value only clouding the potential value in other races.

So I focused on the balance of the card and found two winners at decent prices that ended up returning 80% ROI.

Hopefully I can maintain the same focus and approach the next time the markets are loaded with odds on 'temptation'.

 
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WEAK FAVES FOR 5-December

Strike rates:
Kempton: 14 meetings: 20 for 26 (77%)

5:20 Lyric Piece (result: 4th of 8)

Early Price: Lyric Piece 4.00

SUMMARY Just one play on the late afternoon card.  Lyric Piece remained favourite at the bookmakers but drifted to 4F at Betfair.  The successful call brings the week to 3 for 4 (75%)



STAND-OUT RECOMMENDATIONS TO BACK

3:50 Dubawi Island (4th) -1.00
5:50 Loyal Royal EW (2nd BFSP 9.37/2.78) +0.40
6:50 See The Storm (2nd) -1.00
7:20 The New Black EW (5th) -1.00

SUMMARY Only one horse paid dividends.  See The Storm was beaten by 10 year old Gallantry while Loyal Royal was beaten by Comanche who was the gambled in favourite.  A LSP risk of 4 points would have resulted in a loss of -2.60


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