orioles

Cowboys @ Cardinals

Merry Christmas

I don't like this trappy game. Dallas are out of the post-season and you may find Stephen McGee defending your lead in the fourth, so my last brussels sprout isn't going on the result (for the record though, Dallas should cover).

A better bet is Witten to score; Arizona struggle in coverage with average safety play and nicked up linebackers, so at Evens, Witten looks a nice price in a Dallas O that gives him lots of looks in the redzone.

Pick: Witten Anytime TD Evens 2pts (Sky Bet, Corals)

Panthers @ Steelers

Carolina stink, but the rotting carcass of their season managed to come back to life and bite Arizona on the caboose last week and, while I don't expect the Panthers to win, I'm not laying 14 points on this game.

Carolina's best hope is on the ground with Stewart, but Pittsburgh choke the run. The Panthers will also struggle to keep Clausen upright, so they're unlikely to have much joy vertically. Presumably when they do throw, they'll try and dink and dunk the Steelers to death.

Pittsburgh haven't exactly been tearing up trees on O. Ben Roethlisberger seems to struggle to get the team rolling smoothly up the field. Really, they should hand it off to Mendenhall and let him set up the passing game, but oddly, Pittsburgh seem reluctant to let him carry the load.

Neither side is really a deep strike offense, so if you must take an interest, the spreads might offer a little giggle juice as we step into Christmas.

Touchdown Yardage: Sell @ 83.0 (0.5pt/tick)

Bears @ Vikings

First of all, an apology. I had a full mail bag this morning complaining I hadn't covered the New England game. Well, I did put the pick on my forum post, but when it came time to write it up, I had a poorly little girl who needed her daddy and making you lot rich  had to be set aside (the Jets pick notwithstanding!)

Webb. Seriously? He's listed as a wide receiver in my 'Big Book of the NFL 2010'! I'll confess I had to read up a bit about the mighty Joe Webb, but it looks like he has a strong arm and some talent (presumably he can run too) but, as Green Bay proved last night, when the hammer comes down, inexperienced QBs tend to blow it.

Usually, I like games where the 2nd (or 3rd) string QB is starting, because there's always an overreaction and the spread is way too big, meaning the dog is a strong bet (again, Green Bay were a good example last night). The dog is almost always fired up to do its best for the plucky young lad/veteran team player. I guess the Redskins were another example last night - although I broke my rule and opposed them.

HOWEVER, I like the Bears here because there must come a point at which the puppy is so far behind, it can't catch up.

Presumably the Vikes will try to get 'All Day' and Toby Gerhart going tonight, but with a limited threat behind centre, Chicago will stack the box and give them no room for manoeuvre between the tackles. The Bears' front and pass rush will overwhelm a weak Minnesota O line and look for Julius Peppers to ramp it up off the edge as the game goes on.

On the other side of the ball, Mike Martz must realise that the run is the way to go, after the Giants gashed the Vikes on the ground last week, but nothing is for sure where Martz is concerned and the temptation to attack the weak CBs downfield may be too much, even in the Golden Gophers' outdoor stadium on a freezing night.

The rule tempers the bet, but I'll give the points.

**UPDATE**

Favre is reported to be thinking of playing and Minnesota have upgraded him on the injury report to 'questionable'. In these weather conditions, with the field like rock, I'd actually make the Bears a stronger bet, as they're bound to knock an immobile and fragile Favre out of the game (after he's thrown his customary late season pick six and turned the ball over twice) effectively lobbing Webb to the wolves, or bears - it's much tougher if the rookie doesn't start and has to come in mid-game. The line has moved and is a stronger bet at -7.

Pick: Chicago -7.5 (2*) -7 (3*)

Pick: Anytime TD Bears Defense 4/1 (1pt)
Pick: Chicago Sacks Buy @ 2.7 (1pt/tick)

Jets @ Steelers

Two offenses that are staggering towards the regular season finishing line. The Jets' line is giving up sacks as Sanchez looks increasingly skittish. Sacked 6 times last week against the Dolphins, the Jets are really missing Damien Woody. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Jonathan Scott and Flozell Adams and the rest of the O line seemingly offer Big Ben as much protection as a wet tissue.

I was going to take the Jets, but the -6/6.5 on offer earlier in the week has disappeared by gametime and at -4 I'm not as happy, so I'm staying away ATS.

Instead I'm going back to my old favourite: total sacks in the game. Both teams are being sustained by their defenses, and both sides are going to try and outslug the other on that side of the ball. This means that not only will the Steelers blitz a QB with little or no confidence (or protection) all day, but the Jets should do exactly the same (although they have been oddly gun-shy this year) against a statuesque Roethlisberger who is badly nicked up behind an equally porous line.

It should be a bloodbath.

Pick: Total Match Sacks Buy @ 5.3 (1pt/tick)

49ers @ Chargers

The bolts are getting well - and they ranked 2nd in offense as it is! It is just possible the juggernaut is gassed up and ready to roll, but these teams are in a precarious post-season position and, while neither particularly deserve a run at it all, it's all on the line tonight. however, the line worries me; it has drifted out to double digits and while the chargers will take this, I never like to lay double digits.

With Vincent Jackson fit downfield, Rivers' penchant for the big play is bound to mean some deep shots early and jump balls in the redzone, and given the weakness in the SF secondary with guys like Nate Clements and Shawntae Spencer, I take Jackson to score, as he'll get a lot of looks with Floyd and Gates likely out.

The 49ers are tough against the run, which suggests the Chargers will need to air it out, but nonetheless they'll use Tolbert, Matthews and Sproles to mix it up on O. San Francisco has some injury problems in the linebacker corps and if San Diego gets ahead, those touches in the backfield will go up and Tolbert may well see some goal line carries.

On the other side of the ball, Alex Smith will go to Vernon Davis, his favourite target, with San Diego's safeties struggling a little in coverage. With Joe Staley out and Mike Iupati nicked up though, Smith may find his protection creaking. Although the Chargers lack the marquee pass rush, Ron Rivera has the defensive unit ticking and Smith reacts badly to pressure. Westbrook has looked nice catching out of the backfield of late, but the 49ers will find it difficult to establish the run and, as the options become limited, this may provoke errors as Smith tries to force the ball in against guys like Quentin Jammer.

By the numbers, San Diego should dominate (2nd in offence, 1st in total defense, 1st against the pass, 4th against the run, and 3rd in sacks) and teams travelling on a short week traditionally struggle, but I return to laying double digits. I just don't like it. There is a little 9.5 available and a small interest at that is not too bad.

Pick: SD -9.5 (2*)

Pick: Anytime TD Vincent Jackson 11/8 (2pts)
Pick: Spread - San Diego Performance/San Francisco Performance Buy @ 47 (0.5pt/tick)

Ravens @ Texans

Who's going to stop Flacco picking apart a defense containing such powerhouses as Bernard Pollard, Glover Quin and Kareem Jackson?

Not the Texans. Probably.

They are just horrible on defense and, although the Ravens aren't the defensive force they once were, Houston are unlikely to score enough to make a knockdown fight of this.

There are some caveats though; I hate opposing home dogs on MNF (I know it's an exploded myth, but in my addled brain, it persists). Houston is far from toothless on offense, and this is essentially a meaningless game for Baltimore - they have the wildcard, but the Steelers are out of sight.

Arian Foster is a danger on the ground, depending on how Haloti Ngata is controlled. The problem for the Ravens though, is that Foster is also superb catching out of the backfield, so he represents a formidable challenge - and my best chance of winning a bunch of money in a couple of fantasy leagues.

Andre Johnson will see the ball a lot too because, well, he's Andre Johnson. He's over 1,000yds in one less game so far for a reason. The Ravens can be beaten deep, so expect a big game. Schaub should get him the ball - there's talk that the Ravens have something to prove on D, but the numbers say that the pass rush isn't getting there too often and the Texans' O line is holding up ok.

All that said, Flacco, Boldin, Mason and Riceshould make hay and given the Texans' inability to cover the middle, if Heap doesn't play, a cheeky bet on Dickson to score might lift the gloom of a chilly tuesday morning.

Don't go crazy, but Baltimore look more than a field goal better.

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -3 (3*)

Pick: Anquan Boldin 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Andre Johnson 18/19 (1pt); Ed Dickson 12/5 (1pt)

Eagles @ Cowboys

I'm going to take the Cowboys, but just for a small interest ATS.

These two are going to scrap it out down the stretch and if the Eagles can eliminate their mistakes, they can take a real run at it. The problem is that those mistakes are game-changers and Philadelphia are seemingly unable to stop handing the momentum to teams in tight games.

Dallas are vulnerable deep (Terence Newman, Mike Jenkins, Alan Ball and Gerald Sensabaugh aren't getting it done) and that's not good news against Vick and Jackson, particularly as the latter is clearly itching to put up some big numbers and wasn't shy about letting Vick know about it last week. A crucial game time decision will be whether the Eagles' right tackle Winston Justice goes; if he doesn't, DeMarcus Ware and the Cowboys can bring the sort of limiting pressure required to stifle Vick.

The Dallas offense has rediscovered its rhythm with Kitna at the helm and has even started running the ball effectively and if Jones and Choice can get going, it will open up the throw, which will be the key for the Dallas O. Losing Bryant is a huge blow, exacerbated by the possible return of Samuel at CB, but again, if it turns out Samuel can't go, Dallas look a stronger bet again. They still have the weapons deep and I like Witten a lot in this match up as the Eagles linebackers struggle in coverage and give up yardage to TEs.

As it is, take a small bet for this dog to get its own back on Vick.

Pick: Dallas +4 (2*)

Pick: 1st TD Miles Austin 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Jason Witten 8/5 (1pt)
Pick: D Jackson/M Austin Rec Yards Buy @ 5 (1pt/tick)

Chiefs @ Chargers

This is more like it; a game that means it all. Kansas hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers after taking the Chargers down 21-14 in week 1 at Arrowhead. San Diego hiccuped badly last week and the Chiefs were rolling nicely ... then Cassel's appendix popped.

So I'm going to lay the points with a bet on the Chargers today.

Brodie Croyle isn't a complete bust, he has the arm, but he is inaccurate and the Chargers are a more than capable of bringing pressure (4th in sacks). The Chiefs will presumably lean heavily on Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, that means the number 1 rush against the number 5 defense - a little smashmouth? It should be great as Charles in particular is a beast. However, there's a strong possibility that Kansas will fall behind and if the Chiefs have to rely on Croyle, they'll be trusting in an 0-9 QB.

Rivers has sagged a bit under the pressure of late (see Manning, Peyton: Indianapolis Colts) but he remains a class act and he can get it done against an average secondary today and then rely on his defense to engineer take aways. I'd be happier with Flowers out of the game, and a more robust running game (there's Tolbert and little else) but I still take Rivers to find his hobbling receiving corps often enough to get home in this critical game.

Pick: Chargers -9.5 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Jamal Charles 6/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd 7/4 (1pt)

Bucs @ Redskins

I like the Bucs here. My Redskins have the look of a team that have given up, and while the Buccaneers managed to blow a 10 point lead last week, they look the team most likely.

The Redskins malaise is particularly evident on defense and LeGarrette Blount should have a big game.  He is a massive unit and can wear down a Washington defense that sits last in yards per carry given up. Interestingly, Raheem Morris has expressed increasing frustration at the big boy's inability to convert short yardage and at the goal-line, and the 3/1 on offer at Paddy Power for Earnest Graham to score may offer some sneaky value as he may get those carries in the redzone. The Washington secondary has struggled all season and is banged up and Josh Freeman, even with limited options downfield, is developing into an efficient and talented QB.

Losing Aqib Talib is a blow for the Bucs, so I expect them to come after McNabb to limit the aerial attack and they should get to him. The 'skins O line is playing poorly, allowing 13 sacks in the last four weeks and Tampa have 12 sacks over the same period. That is a worrying combination of stats for McNabb. Washington is also turning over the ball much too much. Their running game is a shambles, so I don't expect the Bucs to be too troubled on the ground, which is a bust for Washington as that probably represents their best chance.

I'll give the point.

Pick: Tampa Bay -1 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Mike Williams 8/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Earnest Graham 3/1 (1pt)
Pick: Buy Tampa Bay Sacks @ 2.4 (1pt/tick)

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans

Sorry for rambling here, but I can't be bothered to tidy up my thoughts ... and I'm pretty sure no-one's reading this stuff anyway

Two teams that have fallen flat on their faces as their superstar performers have struggled to produce of late hardly sets the pulse racing, but I see the Colts coming away with the win here, and covering, but stakes should be kept to a minimum.

I have a good deal of man-love for Peyton Manning; sometimes old gits like me complain that football has become a quarterback game and the old school 'grunt' has been lost, but the guy has been so astonishingly good, for so long, that you can't help but admire the talent that is 18. I've backed him pretty much all season, but the signs were there a couple of weeks ago that the weight of injuries on the Colts O was beginning to become too much and I opposed him, and he lost, and started this run of 11 picks in the last three games. I say this not to appear a shrewd judge, but to defend him really. He had to carry the whole offense and, with no ground game, he had to throw the ball over 45 times a game - with no protection and a decimated receiver corps. It was bound to break down.

For the Titans, last years thoroughbred has started to look like a carthorse. Again, this may be because there's simply nothing else to Tennessee's offense; they're not going to throw it so everyone just runs up and hurl themselves at the the line, because certainly the Titans' O line has not managed to open up any lanes for Johnson. To his credit, he has occasionally put up some numbers, but has fallen off a cliff in the last two games. I know - he's on a couple of my ******* fantasy teams!

In terms of this game, both of these players have 'get well' matchups and could take their team with them, so the question is really which of these is most likely? I'll take Manning.

Johnson should run all over the Colts, who are giving up an eye-watering 140+ rushing yards a game, but last week the Jags (who rank 22nd against the run) held the Titans to 53yds, so it's not something that can be said with absolute confidence.

18 on the other hand, WILL adjust his game. It's a short week, but they'll have been watching film, running routes and planning protection, because that's what makes him great. Manning has taken the coaches out of the loop, he's the man, and he's that good for a reason, he can adapt and correct and should be more effective.

Now, every maestro requires someone to at least shift the piano into the concert hall, so if the rest of the team stink it up (Wayne, despite the numbers last week, keeps dropping the damn thing, Garcon won't finish off his routes, the young guys who stepped up seem a little gassed now) then it's not going to happen, but I would rather trust Manning in this situation than the Titans' coaches to try to turn Collins into an effective passer and Johnson to break it open.

To score? Well, unless Dominic Rhodes is reborn, or the young RBs suddenly find their game, the Colts will throw it a lot and the Titans have struggled with TEs all season. On the other side, Johnson must score, but he's skinny at 4s even to score first.

Pick: Colts -3.5 (2*)

Pick: Touchdown Yardage Buy @ 105 (0.5pt/tick)
Pick: 1st TD Reggie Wayne 7/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Jacob Tamme 5/4 (1pt)