orioles

Chiefs @ Chargers

This is more like it; a game that means it all. Kansas hold the tiebreaker over the Chargers after taking the Chargers down 21-14 in week 1 at Arrowhead. San Diego hiccuped badly last week and the Chiefs were rolling nicely ... then Cassel's appendix popped.

So I'm going to lay the points with a bet on the Chargers today.

Brodie Croyle isn't a complete bust, he has the arm, but he is inaccurate and the Chargers are a more than capable of bringing pressure (4th in sacks). The Chiefs will presumably lean heavily on Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, that means the number 1 rush against the number 5 defense - a little smashmouth? It should be great as Charles in particular is a beast. However, there's a strong possibility that Kansas will fall behind and if the Chiefs have to rely on Croyle, they'll be trusting in an 0-9 QB.

Rivers has sagged a bit under the pressure of late (see Manning, Peyton: Indianapolis Colts) but he remains a class act and he can get it done against an average secondary today and then rely on his defense to engineer take aways. I'd be happier with Flowers out of the game, and a more robust running game (there's Tolbert and little else) but I still take Rivers to find his hobbling receiving corps often enough to get home in this critical game.

Pick: Chargers -9.5 (3*)

Pick: 1st TD Jamal Charles 6/1 (0.5pt)
Pick: Anytime TD Malcolm Floyd 7/4 (1pt)